CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think Jamica may be spared...

North or South???

South that West movement tonight..By no means do i meant they will not get anything but the Eye wall may pass south..

the south of west movement has ended...and was only very brief. A WNW motion has resumed on the RAMSDIS Infrared images..

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[CrazyC83]

Correct, 117 only supports 105 kt surface winds, but since the highest may not have been sampled, I estimate at that moment it was 110 kt. It may be higher now, we'll see...

[HURAKAN]

[vacanechaser]

Derek---the NHC wouldn't dare drop Dean that low though would they?
If only because they know a EWRC could be over before it reaches Jamaica. In other words they wouldn't go low because its too great a drop in one hit and may give the wrong impression to people on Jamaica.

ps, how do we know Dean was'nt lower then 920mbs before recon went in, about 11pm it looked its strongest, could have easily risen 3-4mbs between that time, watch to see what pressure is like on the next vortex.

just saw the recon thread, extrap 917mb...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MusicCityMan]

I just heard it on Power 106 about 10-15 minutes ago.. {about what time the taped speech will air}.. I might keep listening to this station after Dean passes.. I kinda like it

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People its going through a EWRC being that it is forming a broader eyewall. The pressure is now 917 millibars exp on the latest data. Meaning its strengthing in overall power. Once this EWRC is done expect it to shoot up to cat5.

[KBBOCA]

Perhaps you could explain a quintuple wind maxima first.

Jam151, I asked the same question back on the Recon Obs Discussion thread a little while ago and got two really helpful answers. This page.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97125&start=260

Near the bottom

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97231

#14

[WindRunner]

A rather old dropsonde at this point (almost 30 mins) . . . 1004mb pressure, 36kt winds at surface.

UZNT13 KNHC 190049
XXAA 69017 99150 70703 04450 99004 27229 20036 00034 27031 19538
92719 22845 22042 85452 18635 21543 70094 07801 21052 88999 77999
31313 09608 80041
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 11
62626 SPL 1509N07025W 0045 MBL WND 19541 AEV 00000 DLM WND 21043
003725 WL150 19541 079 =
XXBB 69018 99150 70703 04450 00004 27229 11958 23616 22925 22845
33850 18635 44725 10810 55697 07400
21212 00004 20036 11993 19043 22982 19537 33960 19544 44910 22041
55850 21543 66697 21052
31313 09608 80041
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 11
62626 SPL 1509N07025W 0045 MBL WND 19541 AEV 00000 DLM WND 21043
003725 WL150 19541 079 =

[Recurve]

Thanks for those graphics. Always appreciate your work during storms.

[Derek Ortt]

we wont find out until the final report is issued what the winds really are. I doubt they will drop now to 105KT. In Floyd, they kept the winds in real time at 135KT then dropped them after the fact to 105

[TampaFl]

8:00pm position:

[CrazyC83]

985
URNT15 KNHC 190118
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 24 20070819
010830 1610N 07121W 6968 02607 9400 +137 +120 036101 102 093 000 00
010900 1611N 07122W 6967 02647 9448 +130 +122 039098 100 093 000 00
010930 1612N 07123W 6969 02674 9495 +120 +117 041094 095 098 000 00
011000 1613N 07125W 6973 02702 9539 +108 +108 045095 095 096 007 00
011030 1615N 07126W 6951 02757 9577 +091 +091 050104 113 098 030 01
011100 1616N 07127W 6985 02753 9990 +075 +999 044120 122 093 029 05
011130 1617N 07128W 6961 02813 9676 +081 +081 044115 117 093 009 03
011200 1618N 07129W 6965 02837 9694 +091 +091 048110 111 091 007 00
011230 1619N 07130W 6968 02856 9717 +102 +102 048107 109 086 007 00
011300 1620N 07132W 6965 02882 9717 +114 +112 050103 104 087 005 00
011330 1622N 07133W 6968 02895 9736 +116 +108 051098 099 086 005 00
011400 1623N 07134W 6959 02926 9768 +104 +104 049097 098 082 009 00
011430 1624N 07135W 6971 02924 9780 +107 +107 050096 099 083 003 00
011500 1625N 07136W 6968 02945 9800 +103 +103 049090 092 082 003 00
011530 1626N 07138W 6947 02976 9832 +081 +081 058092 103 080 009 00
011600 1628N 07139W 6986 02942 9990 +067 +999 059104 112 077 017 05
011630 1629N 07140W 6958 02992 9882 +073 +073 058104 106 075 053 03
011700 1630N 07142W 6971 02989 9895 +072 +072 056099 101 075 011 00
011730 1631N 07143W 6964 03007 9911 +068 +068 058098 099 073 035 03
011800 1633N 07144W 6971 03010 9898 +081 +081 058093 094 070 017 01
$$

122kt FL found - supports 110kt at surface.

[artist]

I think this might be one for Cozumel but in Spanish

radiocoralcozumel.com/intro.html
beautiful intro - don't know what they are saying though

[WxGuy1]

117KT at flight level only supports 105KT at the surface

Floyd had a similar pressure during an EWRC

I suspect it's probably "only" 110-115kts at this time, accounting for the possibility that the highest winds weren't sampled. Data don't support a 130kt storm, that's for sure!

It's important to remember that intense hurricanes often have fluctuations in strength. This is what we are seeing now, and keeping Dean at 150mph is only doing so out of "psychological" or social response considerations, not scientific considerations. Sure, 930mb is a little low for a Cat 3 storm, but 945mb was high for a strong Cat 4 storm. The wind field is expanding, which means that the pressure gradient is weakening (same change in pressure, but spread out of a large area = weaker pressure gradient). This also makes Wilma all the more remarkable to have had a 882mb central pressure (probably lower) yet with hurricane-force winds only extending outward like 30 miles from the center. That's amazing, plain and simple.

The IR image continues to underwhelm me. The core is solid, and the eye is beautiful. However, the cloud tops certainly are not particularly cold. In fact, I'd consider them a little warm for a major hurricane, with less than 1/2 of the eyewall area tops colder than -60C. To strengthen to and maintain a Cat 5, I like to see a large area of < -70C, with the entire eye surrounded by at least -60C. The visible image improved today, with an expanding CDO through the morning and afternoon, and the symmetry in the IR data improved over yesterday. Those cloud top temperatures (which is a proxy for updraft intensity) aren't very impressive, for sure.

[cpdaman]

well it has been moving about 273 degrees almost due west for the last six hours

it was 16.0 by 230 pm and now it's 16.1 so there is definitely a chance that it goes south and south enough that they get spared the 100 mph winds, and yes i am wishing this south, but the short term data back this up as a legitamite poss

[Derek Ortt]

Despite the decrease in winds tonight...e xpect a quick increase by the time this either makes a direct hit on or landfall at Jamaica

[CrazyC83]

Latest pass has 122 kt FL, supports 110 kt.

[Derek Ortt]

SFDMR though is lower... we may be seeing an elevating of the windfield, along with expansion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As the system is going through the EWRC its pressure between the inside to outside is farther spaced out. Meaning weaker wind speeds for the storm. That is why you have a system with lowing pressure(stronger system) with lower wind speed. But once the eye contracts watch it move up fast. That is what I believe katrina did.