CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[superfly]

As stated earlier, the only difference in a strong Cat. 4 and a weak Cat. 5 is the nomenclature. De De Dedeb that's all folks!

Recon doesn't support either right now. Max winds in the first pass was 118kts flight level, which corresponds to cat 3. There are probably stronger winds in the NW quad but still won't be anywhere near 150 MPH. I suspect NHC kept it there for continuity purposes as they have done many times in the past.

[fasterdisaster]

The issue of this being a Cat3 right now should not surprise people....Folks its not weakening....notice the pressure is DOWN 10 mbs and not rising.....

Folks its just an ERC, and that is anything but good news....if It finishes before dawn itll have the highest THCP in the basin to bomb out.

I apologize for my ignorance, but what does THCP stand for?

[RL3AO]

The issue of this being a Cat3 right now should not surprise people....Folks its not weakening....notice the pressure is DOWN 10 mbs and not rising.....

Folks its just an ERC, and that is anything but good news....if It finishes before dawn itll have the highest THCP in the basin to bomb out.

I apologize for my ignorance, but what does THCP stand for?

Tropical cyclone heat potential.

[vacanechaser]

cat 3?? sorry.. winds have to catch up... this storm is on an upswing intensifying.. katrina was a different situation... weakening was taking place with dry air being pulled in from the u.s. .. this storms pressure is dropping, not rising.. believe me, i have been in several hurricanes, a storm on an upswing in intensity is completely different than a storm weakning at the same pressure...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

[fasterdisaster]

The issue of this being a Cat3 right now should not surprise people....Folks its not weakening....notice the pressure is DOWN 10 mbs and not rising.....

Folks its just an ERC, and that is anything but good news....if It finishes before dawn itll have the highest THCP in the basin to bomb out.

I apologize for my ignorance, but what does THCP stand for?

Tropical cyclone heat potential.

Thanks.

[MusicCityMan]

Taped PM speech from Jamaica at 9:15 {10:15 eastern}

[artist]

thanks - unfortunately the Jamaica ones are not updating. I have not been able to find any from there in a long time.

[KWT]

Well the pressure gradient won't be so tight with several wind maxi, wasn't Wilma a sub 900mbs while having one of these wind maxi events and was found to have cat-4 winds?

[vacanechaser]

look katrina was weakening from a cat 5 with a pressure of 904mb... a weakening storm is so different as far as wind goes to a storm strengthening... there is no way this thing is a cat 3... i just have to disagree..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fasterdisaster]

Derek, I certainly always respect your analyses, but I must say I disagree. Not completely as I do think it has weakened SLIGHTLY, but only to about 140, MAYBE 135 mph. The ERC has not lasted long enough for this to happen, and I do believe those recon readings do support at least a low-end Cat. 4. But of course, I digress, as it's not important to quibble, as someone said, as ERCs are signs of strengthening in the long run, and this could easily be a Category 5 catastrophe before we know it, whether it's Cat 3,4, or just under 5.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has a link(s) to radio stations in Cozumel and Cancun or in other places of the peninsula.?

Alguien tiene direcciones para tener aqui estaciones de radio de Cozumel,Cancun o de otro lugar de la Peninsula?

[fci]

Although still too early to to tell for sure, it looks like today gave many Texans at least some relief. For your sakes it would be good for the models to continue to trend south. The best bet to me would be for Dean to track N over Jamaica, into the Yucatan channel and hit an relatively unpopulated area of Mexico hopefully something like that can occur.

I think your best bet is pretty close to how this may unfold.

I still hold hope that the luck that Jamaica has had continues and they dodge this bullet. The last few times they have had "near misses".

As for the ultimate landfall point, I second the notion that a relatively unpopulated area of Mexico gets the impact.

Models have generally been predicting this and with any luck will get the kudos for being correct.

[Derek Ortt]

117KT at flight level only supports 105KT at the surface

Floyd had a similar pressure during an EWRC

[Extremeweatherguy]

that very brief south wobble seems to have ended. It is moving back WNW now as seen on the RAMSDIS infrared loop.

Here is the link to the RAMSDIS site: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

**BTW: When clicking on a loop, you may need to cut off a few of the last frames since it skips to a couple of old images near the end.**

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think Jamica may be spared...

North or South???

South that West movement tonight..By no means do i meant they will not get anything but the Eye wall may pass south..

[fasterdisaster]

Well the pressure gradient won't be so tight with several wind maxi, wasn't Wilma a sub 900mbs while having one of these wind maxi events and was found to have cat-4 winds?

That was with RISING pressure. Dean's is lowering and counting. Pressure gradient does go against the winds' favor when a storm is weakening, but with this deepening pressure, I can't agree completely.

[CrazyC83]

811
URNT15 KNHC 190108
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 23 20070819
005830 1546N 07058W 6963 02919 9804 +074 +074 239081 083 079 023 00
005900 1547N 07059W 6976 02882 9990 +077 +999 236083 086 076 032 01
005930 1548N 07100W 6956 02896 9737 +087 +087 232080 081 084 028 05
010000 1550N 07101W 6966 02857 9709 +099 +099 232082 084 085 009 00
010030 1551N 07102W 6966 02834 9673 +107 +107 228088 090 087 002 00
010100 1553N 07103W 6967 02801 9631 +116 +102 229092 092 087 008 00
010130 1554N 07104W 6956 02779 9601 +105 +105 223091 093 087 034 00
010200 1556N 07105W 6956 02741 9545 +116 +116 222084 086 092 027 03
010230 1557N 07106W 6969 02689 9499 +127 +120 222084 085 084 006 00
010300 1559N 07107W 6965 02648 9443 +136 +116 222089 092 077 001 00
010330 1600N 07108W 6962 02592 9380 +133 +131 224094 095 085 006 00
010400 1602N 07109W 6963 02505 9313 +109 +109 223099 109 094 024 00
010430 1603N 07111W 6988 02402 9192 +162 +158 214051 066 070 004 03
010500 1604N 07112W 6964 02411 9173 +158 +155 193014 023 033 000 03
010530 1604N 07114W 6973 02402 9179 +152 +152 004002 008 029 001 03
010600 1605N 07116W 6966 02419 9183 +153 +153 358013 019 999 999 03
010630 1606N 07117W 6980 02397 9179 +161 +155 022039 054 064 002 00
010700 1607N 07118W 6963 02456 9225 +149 +149 026074 084 100 009 00
010730 1608N 07119W 6980 02494 9322 +115 +115 030108 111 100 010 00
010800 1609N 07120W 6958 02569 9358 +126 +126 032103 106 093 000 03
$$

917mb extrapolated. 111 kt FL winds this time by on the SW quad...

[vacanechaser]

As stated earlier, the only difference in a strong Cat. 4 and a weak Cat. 5 is the nomenclature. De De Dedeb that's all folks!

Recon doesn't support either right now. Max winds in the first pass was 118kts flight level, which corresponds to cat 3. There are probably stronger winds in the NW quad but still won't be anywhere near 150 MPH. I suspect NHC kept it there for continuity purposes as they have done many times in the past.

recon may have missed the strongest winds too... of course we will see later..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Derek---the NHC wouldn't dare drop Dean that low though would they?
If only because they know a EWRC could be over before it reaches Jamaica. In other words they wouldn't go low because its too great a drop in one hit and may give the wrong impression to people on Jamaica.

ps, how do we know Dean was'nt lower then 920mbs before recon went in, about 11pm it looked its strongest, could have easily risen 3-4mbs between that time, watch to see what pressure is like on the next vortex.