CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CronkPSU]

Don't know if it means anything,but Dean has slowed down to a crawl...(according to loops observation)

looks like it is going the same speed to me, just a wsw wobble

[MusicCityMan]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 155 mph at 11 or even a bonafide Cat 5.. if the winds catch up with the pressure drop that is..

[wxwatcher91]

897
URNT15 KNHC 190038
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 20 20070819
002830 1442N 07100W 6968 03135 0048 +079 +067 247042 043 042 007 00
002900 1442N 07058W 6968 03136 0045 +083 +064 248046 047 042 007 00
002930 1442N 07055W 6968 03138 0044 +084 +063 247048 049 041 007 00
003000 1442N 07053W 6968 03137 0039 +090 +059 243047 048 042 005 00
003030 1442N 07051W 6963 03141 0042 +088 +055 244049 051 042 006 00
003100 1442N 07049W 6969 03136 0049 +085 +054 240049 050 041 007 00
003130 1443N 07047W 6968 03138 0047 +085 +058 239048 048 041 006 00
003200 1443N 07044W 6967 03141 0045 +087 +056 243045 047 041 000 00
003230 1443N 07042W 6967 03143 0051 +085 +057 238045 046 039 002 00
003300 1443N 07040W 6968 03142 0051 +084 +064 239041 042 040 003 00
003330 1443N 07038W 6967 03144 0050 +086 +066 236043 045 039 002 00
003400 1443N 07036W 6967 03144 0047 +090 +062 233043 044 039 001 00
003430 1443N 07034W 6964 03147 0046 +090 +066 232044 045 038 001 00
003500 1443N 07031W 6966 03146 0049 +086 +061 232046 046 038 000 00
003530 1443N 07029W 6965 03146 0054 +085 +053 234045 046 038 000 00
003600 1444N 07027W 6971 03146 0055 +086 +056 236043 044 037 000 03
003630 1445N 07025W 6969 03143 0056 +082 +055 233045 046 040 000 03
003700 1446N 07024W 6963 03148 0055 +083 +062 231047 047 040 000 00
003730 1448N 07022W 6964 03150 0065 +076 +059 226047 048 040 000 00
003800 1449N 07021W 6966 03145 0065 +075 +060 221047 047 039 000 00
$$

[shelby]

Local 13 said we were out of the clear, i nearly fell over. If they keep saying this and it takes a turn it could go south quick. Everyone needs to watch this.

This is interesting with the Cane at least 4 to 5 days out - plus the ULL in FL is not moving like they anticipated. What if Dean shoots the gap?

[KBBOCA]

Left veer making sure the hard side is on the same side as Jamaica. Not good.

Yes, it appears the southern side of the eyewall is now hugging the 16 Lat line pretty closely. If it stays at 16, the eye would stay south of Jamaica. We could perhaps hope & pray for an Ivan wobble? It could still be devastating for the island, but a miss to the south is definitely better than a landfall on Kingston!

edit: of course a miss to the north would be even better for Jamaica, (but not looking likely.)

[superfly]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 155 mph at 11 or even a bonafide Cat 5.. if the winds catch up with the pressure drop that is..

The ERC isn't even close to complete right now and the winds won't start increasing until it's finished.

[ajaxw]

Can you please link me to the Google Earth addon that allows you to get the HH data please?

There is no add-on. Hurakan gets the recon data from the Internet (in this case, Ohio State) and then feeds it into Google Earth, but there is not exactly an add-on to do this work. We appreciate your work, Huracan.

[WindRunner]

Can you please link me to the Google Earth addon that allows you to get the HH data please?

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... RNT15.KNHC

I get the data from this website.

I meant the graphics.

They're probably hand made, in S2k tradition!


Drop on the edge . . . 1004mb/no surface wind, though 35kts at 1000mb.

UZNT13 KNHC 190025
XXAA 69007 99147 70722 04442 99004 28232 ///// 00037 28031 26535
92725 22835 27540 85458 17628 31045 70101 09805 32532 88999 77999
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 09
62626 SPL 1472N07215W 0013 LST WND 013 MBL WND 26538 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 29538 003746 WL150 26537 087 =
XXBB 69008 99147 70722 04442 00004 28232 11850 17628 22744 13212
33697 09405
21212 00004 ///// 11003 26034 22991 26538 33980 26536 44968 26541
55933 27541 66900 29036 77850 31045 88697 32532
31313 09608 80010
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 09
62626 SPL 1472N07215W 0013 LST WND 013 MBL WND 26538 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 29538 003746 WL150 26537 087 =

[dwg71]

Local 13 said we were out of the clear, i nearly fell over. If they keep saying this and it takes a turn it could go south quick. Everyone needs to watch this.

This is interesting with the Cane at least 4 to 5 days out - plus the ULL in FL is not moving like they anticipated. What if Dean shoots the gap?

Its moving exactly as anticipated... It should be south of texas tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

I would not ever call anything a done deal with any hurricane that is 4-5 from landfall.
I think all of us on this board should know better than that.

[txwatcher91]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

2 things wrong: 1, as of the 8pm advisory, Dean is at 150mph, 920mb. The pressure is WAYYY too low for a category three, unless it expects to beat out wilma as a category 4 hurricane. 2, the ERC has barely begun. The concentric eyewalls have become more defined, and in about 8-12 hours the inner eye should collapse.

The 150 was based on old information and is not supported by the latest flight or the structure. The shape and wind field is just like Katrina and that means a pressure much lower than the wind calls for.

I estimate it at 125 mph at the moment.

I would have to agree with CrazyC83, just because it has a pressure of 920 doesn't mean that it does or does not have winds of 150mph. Currently, I would have to say that it likely has winds of 125-130 based on the ERC taking place. Also, recon does not currently support winds of 150. However, once the ERC finishes, it could very easily become a cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

[HURAKAN]

[CronkPSU]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

i've never heard of such a thing..what does that mean for future development?

[Cape Verde]

I think everyone is in agreement that Jamaica will get hammered. There's some disagreement whethter it will be from the north side or the south side or right down the middle.

The Caymans are next, only the question is more critical since they don't have the mountain ridges like Jamaica.

After that, it's a crapshoot. I don't believe anything after that. We can speculate and predict, but we don't know anything.

[fasterdisaster]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 155 mph at 11 or even a bonafide Cat 5.. if the winds catch up with the pressure drop that is..

The ERC isn't even close to complete right now and the winds won't start increasing until it's finished.

Incorrect. It has happened before. I know for a fact Emily and I believe Ivan did.

[CrazyC83]

221
URNT15 KNHC 190048
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 21 20070819
003830 1451N 07019W 6965 03146 0061 +077 +058 218049 050 040 000 00
003900 1453N 07018W 6968 03141 0061 +079 +055 213049 050 040 000 00
003930 1455N 07016W 6966 03145 0059 +079 +055 210050 050 040 000 00
004000 1456N 07015W 6963 03151 0061 +078 +055 211050 050 039 000 03
004030 1458N 07015W 6969 03138 0058 +078 +060 209049 050 042 000 03
004100 1500N 07015W 6967 03143 0059 +075 +062 207048 049 040 000 03
004130 1502N 07016W 6967 03140 0058 +075 +067 208051 051 041 001 00
004200 1504N 07017W 6969 03135 0051 +078 +073 212048 050 042 000 00
004230 1505N 07019W 6967 03131 0051 +074 +074 212046 047 042 000 00
004300 1506N 07020W 6969 03128 0048 +075 +075 212046 046 043 000 00
004330 1508N 07021W 6967 03131 0050 +072 +072 210046 047 043 002 00
004400 1509N 07023W 6967 03126 0050 +070 +070 209048 049 043 001 00
004430 1510N 07024W 6967 03126 0038 +077 +077 211049 049 044 001 00
004500 1511N 07025W 6967 03124 0042 +072 +072 210050 050 044 002 00
004530 1513N 07027W 6968 03117 0039 +071 +071 210050 051 046 000 00
004600 1514N 07028W 6967 03114 0035 +072 +070 207052 053 047 004 00
004630 1515N 07029W 6967 03110 0031 +071 +070 204051 051 048 005 00
004700 1517N 07031W 6967 03108 0030 +070 +070 203053 054 049 006 00
004730 1518N 07032W 6970 03101 0043 +057 +057 204054 055 049 006 00
004800 1519N 07034W 6961 03108 0035 +059 +059 209057 058 050 006 00
$$

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think Jamica may be spared...

[ConvergenceZone]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

[CrazyC83]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

That is not really good news, due to the much larger wind field...they will be dealing with a larger area for much longer with hurricane force winds.

The winds and pressure are identical to Katrina at landfall at this point (based on my estimate).