CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[artist]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

what do you mean Marshall?

[cheezyWXguy]

In this loop Dean seems to be moving directly to the northwest:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

Dean is starting to look a little ragged right now. Likely beginning to see an ERC take place, since the main "CDO" area has expanded a bit, as has the windfield, although the eye continues to shrink. An ERC should be underway this afternoon.

[windstorm99]

[img][/img]

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the steering currents, could it move WSW and hit Belize instead of the Yucatan?

[jabman98]

I'm learning too.
I looked it up and I "think" EWRC means Eye Wall Replacment Circle.
I could be wrong.

For future reference, Storm2k has a list of acronyms that might be helpful: viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

Edited to remove extraneous quote.

[theworld]

[cpdaman]

so all the model tracks COUNT on/DEPEND on a high pressure ridge building in and the ULL continuing to move at a GOOD RATE of speed , i guess as long as the Ull keeps moving like it has since midnite the Ull will be in position to allow the ridge to build in, the question i have is will it (the ridge) and is the ull movement since last nite (wsw) in line with what was forecast.

[fasterdisaster]

In this loop Dean seems to be moving directly to the northwest:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

Dean is starting to look a little ragged right now. Likely beginning to see an ERC take place, since the main "CDO" area has expanded a bit, as has the windfield, although the eye continues to shrink. An ERC should be underway this afternoon.

Agreed, which is REALLY bad news for Jamaica and maybe Hispaniola, as strengthening will likely take place after the ERC, and Category 5 could be achieved.

[Sanibel]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes


Torrential rains over Puerto Rico from heavy squall in band.

[CrazyC83]

309
URNT15 KNHC 181531
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 30 20070818
152100 1620N 06800W 6968 03118 0023 +084 +084 135076 076 055 008 00
152130 1621N 06759W 6967 03124 0033 +080 +080 135075 076 055 008 00
152200 1623N 06758W 6967 03128 0031 +082 +082 134071 072 055 008 00
152230 1624N 06757W 6968 03128 0033 +083 +083 134075 075 055 008 00
152300 1625N 06755W 6967 03132 0039 +082 +082 131074 074 053 015 03
152330 1626N 06754W 6966 03136 0041 +083 +082 131072 072 052 010 03
152400 1627N 06753W 6965 03140 0040 +087 +076 133072 072 053 016 00
152430 1628N 06752W 6967 03141 0045 +085 +074 134072 073 052 008 00
152500 1628N 06752W 6967 03141 0042 +090 +078 134073 073 052 008 03
152530 1631N 06749W 6967 03148 0050 +086 +083 131072 073 049 008 00
152600 1632N 06748W 6964 03153 0055 +084 +084 131070 073 049 040 03
152630 1633N 06747W 6964 03154 0059 +083 +083 127071 072 051 048 03
152700 1634N 06746W 6966 03152 0055 +088 +078 125071 071 050 027 03
152730 1635N 06745W 6967 03153 0057 +088 +081 127072 073 049 027 00
152800 1636N 06744W 6969 03153 0062 +085 +079 127074 075 049 011 00
152830 1637N 06743W 6964 03159 0063 +085 +076 130074 074 050 010 00
152900 1638N 06741W 6967 03159 0069 +083 +078 134074 074 048 011 00
152930 1639N 06740W 6965 03163 0069 +083 +076 136072 073 047 011 00
153000 1641N 06739W 6967 03163 0076 +080 +080 138070 071 046 010 00
153030 1642N 06738W 6967 03165 0079 +079 +079 139068 070 043 023 00
$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 12z GFS is once again initializing the storm way too weak (1002mbs).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Pretty pathetic considering this is actually a sub-930mb Category 4!

[MusicCityMan]

Beautiful pic of Dean. He looks absolutely amazing.. Look out Jamaica..

[mf_dolphin]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

what do you mean Marshall?

Well for one it could mean that the center would stay over water instead of making a 146 mile trek down the length of Jamaica. It would also bring some of the mountains in Cuba into play a little more on the north side of Dean. The worst impact is that it brings it a little closer to the ULL which could impart track further to the north.

[LSU2001]

I thought one of the pro-mets (wxman57 maybe) was taking about how storms are not really affected by the idea of momentum because of the fluidity of the system. In my experience I have seen storms make very sharp turns even when they were expected to maintain a relatively straight course. Not saying this will happen but with strong hurricanes but I never rule anything out until well after landfall.
JMHO,
Tim

[Extremeweatherguy]

12 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif

[hicksta]

why do they have it so weak, thats going to mess up the whole run since stronger storms pull more poleward

[Extremeweatherguy]

24hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Shows a 1005mb storm..which by GFS standards would probably indicate a ~1000mb TS. Not very impressive and WAY too weak considering this will likely be a Category 5 storm in 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

705
URNT12 KNHC 181536
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/15:02:00Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
068 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2511 m
D. 80 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 281 deg 091 kt
G. 194 deg 005 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 11 C/ 3051 m
J. 21 C/ 3038 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 15:00:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 139 KT NE QUAT 15:05:30 Z
EYEWALL ON SOUTH SIDE LOOKING MORE RAGGED

Sounds like we have an ERC well underway. Southern eyewall is open.

[msbee]

I am not surprised that the bananas were all destroyed. Banana trees do not stand up well in wind.
Mount Pelee is the volcano you are talking about and it is in the Northern part of the island.
We are still concerned at the lack of more news from the island.

[fasterdisaster]

Should the winds be raised to 155 mph?