CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
crazycajuncane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 2:51 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4261 Postby crazycajuncane » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:44 am

chaupal wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I did go all in on Tx/La coast right??? Im broke.


I think it is a close call. If I have to bet right now, I will bet on TX landfall. This is purely on my past experience that as storms get closer to GOM, tracks starts moving east with every run. I am not a Met or any thing and am just learning here.


I agree with the move east on most runs as these storms hit the GOM. I'm still thinking these models have Dean pegged too far south. Dean might skirt right over the Yucatan and into the GOM and if that happens all bets are off.
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#4262 Postby bvigal » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:44 am

(email just received from CDERA. http://www.cdera.org)
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Dominica and Saint Lucia and tropical storm warnings for Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts/Nevis and St. Vincent and the Grenadines as Hurricane Dean, a Category 1 Hurricane, approaches the Lesser Antilles.

At 11.00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Dean, a Category 1 Hurricane was located near latitude 13.7 north and longitude 54.3 west or about 350 miles (730 km) east of Barbados.

Hurricane Dean is moving towards the west near 23mph (37km/hr) and this motion is expected to continue today. This motion should bring the centre of Dean near the Lesser Antilles early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150km/hr) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Dean this afternoon.

National Response to threat:

Dominica, Saint Vincent & the Grenadines held pre-impact meetings yesterday and similar meetings are being held today in Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Grenada and, Saint Lucia, The National Emergency Operations Centres are partially activated in Dominica and Saint Vincent.

Regional Response:

In response to the threat posed by Hurricane Dean, the CDERA Coordinating Unit has continued to maintain contact with the National disaster Offices. The CDERA Coordinating Unit is urging States to ensure that all national preparedness and readiness actions are rushed to completion.

The CDERA Coordinating Unit has activated its contingency plan

The Regional Response Mechanism remains on STANDBY. Standby means that all elements of the RRM should take the necessary preparatory actions in accordance with their respective plans to ensure that a speedy and efficient response may be mounted if a full activation is declared.

The Eastern Caribbean Donor Group (ECDG) Pre-strike meeting commenced at 10:30 a.m today Thursday 16 August, 2007 at the UN House in Barbados.

The Coordinating Unit will continue to monitor the situation with Hurricane Dean as it approaches the Caribbean and provide advisories as necessary.

Hurricane Warning
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical Storm Warning
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38120
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN:(Page 106) Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#4263 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:44 am

Tireman4 wrote:Question...not that I am doubting anything, but is the GFS model good for tropical forecasts? Or is NAM the one that is not good? I am so confused. :)


NAM... the GFS is heavily used by pro mets.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4264 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:46 am

NOGAPS @ 48 Hours

Image
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38120
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4265 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:46 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Landfall Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif



As a New Cane enters the Carribean..


:eek: :eek: :eek:

Looks like the EXACT same track as Dean!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Recon obs

#4266 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:49 am

232
URNT15 KNHC 161644
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 12 20070816
163600 1543N 05747W 6968 03201 0118 +086 +055 072038 039 028 005 00
163630 1541N 05746W 6966 03202 0117 +086 +055 070038 039 028 005 00
163700 1539N 05745W 6967 03201 0114 +086 +053 070039 039 025 005 03
163730 1537N 05744W 6967 03201 0115 +085 +059 068039 039 028 005 00
163800 1535N 05743W 6967 03201 0117 +085 +059 068039 039 028 005 00
163830 1533N 05743W 6965 03201 0117 +085 +056 070040 040 028 005 00
163900 1531N 05742W 6967 03198 0117 +085 +051 071040 041 029 005 00
163930 1529N 05741W 6967 03197 0115 +085 +052 070042 043 029 005 00
164000 1527N 05740W 6965 03203 0118 +084 +055 069042 043 030 005 00
164030 1525N 05740W 6971 03195 0115 +085 +052 068042 043 029 005 00
164100 1523N 05739W 6967 03197 0116 +081 +058 064043 044 029 005 00
164130 1521N 05738W 6964 03200 0113 +083 +056 065041 041 028 005 00
164200 1519N 05738W 6968 03195 0109 +086 +051 063041 042 027 005 00
164230 1517N 05737W 6969 03190 0103 +089 +043 063042 042 027 005 00
164300 1515N 05736W 6965 03196 0109 +085 +055 063042 043 025 005 00
164330 1513N 05735W 6967 03192 0106 +085 +054 063042 042 028 005 00
164400 1511N 05735W 6967 03192 0102 +089 +051 061041 041 028 005 00
164430 1509N 05734W 6968 03189 0101 +090 +048 060040 041 025 005 03
164500 1508N 05732W 6971 03187 0101 +091 +051 061039 040 028 005 00
164530 1507N 05731W 6975 03181 0098 +093 +050 060041 041 028 005 00
$$
Image
0 likes   

flwxwatcher
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 926
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 3:35 pm
Location: Central Florida

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4267 Postby flwxwatcher » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:49 am

The GFS Moves the ULL east of Florida westward and keeps it well ahead of Dean after crossing Florida and moves it quickly west through the Gulf. Lets see how this verifies and Lets see if that 06Z GFDL was just a blip and it gets back inline with the 12Z run or if its on to something. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Re:

#4268 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:49 am

Brent wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Landfall Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif



As a New Cane enters the Carribean..


:eek: :eek: :eek:

Looks like the EXACT same track as Dean!!!


Not good news for the rest of the season and for the Western/Central GOM if Dean winds up missing the Yucatan,or skimming the tip :eek:
Last edited by canegrl04 on Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1583
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Cancun, Mexico (northeast Yucatan coast)

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4269 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:49 am

What still bothers me about the GFS is that it has initialized Dean at 1008 mb again. A weak storm always progs westward because it is less influenced by upper air patterns. The strong storms usually go on a more northerly track. Until the correct mb reading is input, the GFS is very suspect to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4270 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:51 am

nogaps 60 hrs...

Image
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Hurricane DEAN:(Page 106) Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#4271 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:52 am

OT: The other storm projected behind Dean spells trouble as well. Nearly the same track!!!! An with a H built again, lord knows.... :eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN:(Page 106) Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#4272 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:54 am

Brent wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Question...not that I am doubting anything, but is the GFS model good for tropical forecasts? Or is NAM the one that is not good? I am so confused. :)


NAM... the GFS is heavily used by pro mets.



Well I hope things change. Goodness. Rita taught us a lesson in Houston. I just hope we learned from it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4273 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:54 am

another view nogaps 60hrs..

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re:

#4274 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image


Dean is starting to fill in nicely on his W side... lots of new bands in the west semi cirlcle apparent on Vis. Still moving really quickly W too... at this rate, looks like the outer bands will start affecting the islands pretty soon...
0 likes   

myamericandrm434
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:45 am

Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#4275 Postby myamericandrm434 » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:55 am

HR Dean is moving kinda fast....from the forcast tracks, looks like it could move to the west...its possible, but im not sure..if it keeps strengthening it could be a cat 2-3, which is bad for these islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: Re:

#4276 Postby Ixolib » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:56 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:As a New Cane enters the Carribean..

What NEW cane????
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4277 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:56 am

72 Hours nogaps...

Yeah I like those wind streamlines.

Image
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4278 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:56 am

I'll stick with Dean for now, thank you much!
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4279 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:57 am

72 nogaps
Image
0 likes   

fox13weather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#4280 Postby fox13weather » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:57 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:What still bothers me about the GFS is that it has initialized Dean at 1008 mb again. A weak storm always progs westward because it is less influenced by upper air patterns. The strong storms usually go on a more northerly track. Until the correct mb reading is input, the GFS is very suspect to me.


Ignore the GFS when it comes to hurricane intensification. It is a global model that was not designed for tropical intensification forecasting. Use it for tracking.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 39 guests