CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ivanhater]

66 GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_066.shtml

[Brent]

it is moving very fast. will this hinder development? can it / will it slow down?

It's not going to slow much... NHC keeps it moving at 20+ mph for the next 5 days, and so far it has not hindered development, so it doesn't look like it.

[Evil Jeremy]

it is moving very fast. will this hinder development? can it / will it slow down?

unfortunally no and no

[Extremecane]

WOW lookingh great now: I say its a cat 2 cane :

[Brent]

66 GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_066.shtml

Very similar so far, but 1008 mb? LOL

[weatherguru18]

As mentioned earlier, this is a small storm...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

I think most of the islands will far ok...that is unless your right under Dean!

[SouthFloridawx]

I knew that the faster forward speed with effect the track, especially with that ull.

[Wx_Warrior]

66 12z...More NW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_066m.gif

[Ivanhater]

66 GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_066.shtml

That looks a little more north??

and look at the high over alabama...was oriented nw to se now its west to east...not sure if that matters

[DESTRUCTION5]

66 GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_066.shtml

Very similar so far, but 1008 mb? LOL

LOL..Why do we love this darn model so much..

[abajan]

I should clear up something stated in my last post: When I submitted that post, I was unaware of the fact that our meteorological service had indeed issued a T/S warning for Barbados at 5:00 AM.

Still, IMHO a T/S watch should have been issued since 11:00 PM and certainly by 2:00 AM.

[SouthFloridawx]

It was a small storm... Looks like the wind field is expanding

[Brent]

Wow I went to sleep at 5 and now its gotten HUGE. I told you this system wouldnt stay small.

True, but the wind field is VERY small. The hurricane force winds only go out 25 miles.

[vacanechaser]

looks like a possible interesting run this afternoon.. does it look further north??


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Wx_Warrior]

All-in on Tx/La this run!!!

[Brent]

66 GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_066.shtml

Very similar so far, but 1008 mb? LOL

LOL..Why do we love this darn model so much..

I don't know!

It does look more to the north... could go over Jamaica this run as opposed to south.

[SouthFloridawx]

594
URNT15 KNHC 161553
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 07 20070816
154600 1703N 06135W 3994 07645 0452 -170 -185 099025 026 025 003 00
154630 1702N 06133W 3993 07646 0452 -170 -185 099024 024 022 004 00
154700 1702N 06131W 3994 07645 0452 -170 -186 098025 025 022 004 00
154730 1701N 06128W 3994 07645 0452 -170 -187 098025 025 022 004 00
154800 1700N 06126W 3994 07645 0451 -170 -188 098026 026 024 004 00
154830 1659N 06123W 3994 07644 0450 -170 -188 098025 026 023 004 00
154900 1658N 06121W 3994 07643 0449 -170 -188 097026 026 024 004 00
154930 1657N 06119W 3992 07645 0449 -171 -188 096026 026 025 004 00
155000 1657N 06116W 3994 07640 0447 -170 -187 096026 026 024 004 00
155030 1656N 06114W 3994 07638 0445 -170 -186 097026 026 024 004 00
155100 1655N 06111W 3994 07635 0443 -170 -185 096026 026 024 004 00
155130 1654N 06109W 3994 07635 0442 -172 -185 096026 027 023 005 00
155200 1653N 06107W 3993 07636 0441 -170 -184 096026 027 025 004 00
155230 1652N 06104W 3994 07633 0441 -170 -184 097026 026 025 004 00
155300 1652N 06102W 3994 07633 0441 -170 -184 096025 025 025 004 00
155330 1651N 06059W 3993 07636 0441 -170 -184 095024 024 026 004 00
155400 1650N 06057W 3993 07635 0440 -170 -184 094024 024 026 004 00
155430 1649N 06055W 3993 07634 0439 -170 -184 093023 024 025 004 00
155500 1648N 06052W 3994 07629 0437 -170 -183 093023 024 025 004 00
155530 1647N 06050W 3994 07628 0435 -169 -186 094023 023 026 004 00
$$

[milankovitch]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

I disagree; that's not a supercell. It's a regular TC related thunderstorm.

These are referred to as "hot towers". The proper use of this term is not very well defined however...

http://lamar.colostate.edu/~tcram/docum ... l_2006.pdf

Montgomery just wrote an excellent paper on the phenomenon. Basically, it proposes a piecewise route to tropical cyclogeneises. Hot towers are intense cumulonimbus convective cells. They acquire slight rotation from ingesting and stretching environmental vorticity as well as tilting shear (simmilar to how a supercell gets it's rotation).

The spin they acquire isolates the hot towers; so that piece by piece they assemble the spin of a pre-depression tropical cyclone. The hot towers bring the storm to a level of intensity where it can continue via the WISHE (wind induced surface heat exchange) of Kerry Emanuel.

The term hot tower can also be applied to bursts of extremely intense convection embedded in the eye wall. The best example of this is Wilma. Below is a NASA story elaborating on this use of the term.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... louds.html

[HURAKAN]

Eye popping back.

[Aric Dunn]

WOW that was a lot of pages to catch up on from page 106 late last night!! when the beginnings of the "eye" and Eye wall were becoming more evident. glad to see the NHC upgraded before recon got out there!