CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Wx_Warrior]

Not buying Ernesto but gulf coast sure would love it!

[wxmann_91]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

I disagree; that's not a supercell. It's a regular TC related thunderstorm.

[Wx_Warrior]

18..moving faster each run!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_018m.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

Except for Tulum, the Mayans didn't built a major city facing the Caribbean Sea. I guess they knew very well about the monsters that the Caribbean can produce.

Yea well then I hope it barrels right thru the middle of the YUc..

[Evil Jeremy]

Any chance of Dean pulling a Charley on us? What I mean is, go through the Yuctuan Peninsula and Cube and turning towards FL?

[sunnyday]

Does everyone feel certain that SE Fl is not going to be involved in any way? Local met said yestereday that we would be under hurricane watch/warning as it passed to the south because it would be that close.
Thanks for the info....

[SouthFloridawx]

822
URNT11 KNHC 161539
97779 15384 50172 62200 71900 11028 67691 /5764
RMK AF304 0104A DEAN OB 01

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 01
Time: 1538Z
Latitude: 17.2°N
Longitude: 62.2°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 23600 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (110°) @ 32 mph
Temperature: 1°F
Dewpoint: -2°F
Weather: Scattered Skies
400mb height: 25100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[DESTRUCTION5]

Any chance of Dean pulling a Charley on us? What I mean is, go through the Yuctuan Peninsula and Cube and turning towards FL?

Id say 0.0001 this time...This is not a FL storm..I just hope its not a Gulf one either..

[HURAKAN]

Does everyone feel certain that SE Fl is not going to be involved in any way? Local met said yestereday that we would be under hurricane watch/warning as it passed to the south because it would be that close.
Thanks for the info....

Who said that???? That's crazy. If it stays in the NHC's projected track we shouldn't have to worry, not even of a TS watch.

[SouthFloridawx]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

I disagree; that's not a supercell. It's a regular TC related thunderstorm.

Remember that video & explanation about the super warm towers/columns of air and moisture, extending/shooting into the upper levels. That would be indicative of falling pressure and rising wind speed.

Hope those hurricane hunters stay safe.

[Sanibel]

Any chance of Dean pulling a Charley on us? What I mean is, go through the Yuctuan Peninsula and Cube and turning towards FL?

Don't think so.

[Sabanic]

Any chance of Dean pulling a Charley on us? What I mean is, go through the Yuctuan Peninsula and Cube and turning towards FL?

Id say 0.0001 this time...This is not a FL storm..I just hope its not a Gulf one either..

I know this doesn't mean anything, but I've got a bad gut feeling for Texas to maybe as far east as LA/MS

[Ivanhater]

GFS 36
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_036.shtml

[Brent]

Any chance of Dean pulling a Charley on us? What I mean is, go through the Yuctuan Peninsula and Cube and turning towards FL?

Nope, there was a MASSIVE(October-like) trough in Mid-August for that one, there is not anything close to one this time. Strong ridge building in over FL.

[wxmann_91]

suprecell right over the center... usually means rapidly falling pressure

I disagree; that's not a supercell. It's a regular TC related thunderstorm.

Remember that video & explanation about the super warm towers/columns of air and moisture, extending/shooting into the upper levels. That would be indicative of falling pressure and rising wind speed.

Hope those hurricane hunters stay safe.

Yeah, those are hot towers associated with strong thunderstorms, not supercell-type thunderstorms.

Semantics aside, the area of cloudcover has expanded significantly today, and structure continues to look very good. I hope to be doing a forecast today as Sepat is under an ERC.

[Scorpion]

Wow I went to sleep at 5 and now its gotten HUGE. I told you this system wouldnt stay small.

[SouthFloridawx]

488
URNT15 KNHC 161543
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 06 20070816
153600 1714N 06225W 3994 07657 0464 -174 -202 105029 029 999 999 03
153630 1714N 06222W 3994 07656 0463 -174 -198 104029 029 999 999 03
153700 1713N 06220W 3994 07654 0462 -171 -195 105028 028 999 999 03
153730 1713N 06217W 3994 07649 0458 -171 -191 106027 027 999 999 03
153800 1712N 06215W 3994 07649 0456 -170 -188 106027 027 999 999 03
153830 1712N 06212W 3994 07651 0458 -170 -186 105027 027 999 999 03
153900 1712N 06210W 3994 07654 0460 -170 -184 105027 027 999 999 03
153930 1711N 06207W 3994 07651 0459 -170 -183 105026 027 027 004 00
154000 1711N 06205W 3993 07654 0459 -172 -181 105027 027 027 004 00
154030 1710N 06202W 3994 07652 0459 -170 -180 104027 027 027 004 00
154100 1710N 06200W 3994 07652 0459 -171 -180 104026 026 027 003 00
154130 1709N 06157W 3994 07651 0458 -171 -178 102026 026 027 004 00
154200 1709N 06155W 3994 07650 0456 -170 -178 101026 026 042 000 03
154230 1708N 06152W 3994 07646 0456 -170 -178 102025 025 999 999 03
154300 1708N 06150W 3993 07650 0455 -174 -179 101026 026 999 999 03
154330 1707N 06147W 3994 07649 0455 -172 -181 101026 026 999 999 03
154400 1707N 06145W 3994 07647 0455 -173 -182 100026 026 999 999 03
154430 1706N 06143W 3994 07647 0455 -170 -183 100026 026 999 999 03
154500 1705N 06140W 3994 07647 0454 -170 -185 100026 026 999 999 03
154530 1704N 06138W 3994 07645 0453 -170 -185 099025 025 045 000 03

[HardCard]

>>What concerns you most? Please tell me not the GFDL.

That's not concerning, it's ALARMING. But I hear what NENC Weather is saying. However, it's not just a "ridge" issue, it's the ridge coupled with what it anticipates the cutoff low forming out of that TUTT tomorrow night is going to do along with Dean's forward speed. It may be a blip in a bad model run. It may not. Any time there is a progged Cat 3 or Cat 4 heading toward the Gulf, all Gulf residents should be somewhat concerned. Ultimately, I think the GFDL is the outlier here. But should the UKMET or some of the generally non-southern biased models start to agree with a stallout of the cutoff ULL, Dean catching it, or whatever, then we're in a new ballgame.

I wouldn't make the call either way or any other way right now. I'm not that good.

Steve

Remember though Steve, EVERYTHING is an outlier until the general track shifts.. If GFDL is consistent and we see the other models trending ever so slightly north (which is inevitable anyway, and I say that because course correction always drags to the pole closer the landfall) and we'll have to put more faith in gfdl and the model cluster in general..

Having said that.. I wouldn't mind a low level tropical storm or a weak cat 1 in New Orleans these days.. it has been so HOT lately, the wet would be welcome... I do NOT want a beastie like this though.. So, it can stay away.. Unless it clips the Yucatan on the way to us, which might serve to give him a spanking before a US Mainland landfall..

Oh well, time will tell..

[oyster_reef]

it is moving very fast. will this hinder development? can it / will it slow down?

[Sanibel]

I said 5am for hurricane in cycloneye's poll. Did I win?