CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

France issues warnings 6-9 hours in advance. They may give a little additional lead time this time.

Right now, a Warning is not warranted under the French definition of a warning

In this case, then warning means "run for your life" or "your life is really in danger."

[DESTRUCTION5]

Oh, sorry Ivanhater, didn't see you posted the discussion already.

Its cool..It is interesting to note they adjusted the track based on the gfdl, they put a lot of credit on it..they consider it an outlier at this time and they are waiting to see if the other models start moving that way

NHC loves the GFDL IH..

[Wx_Warrior]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't understand why the track shifted north when the outlier is the reason they did it? Something isn't adding up or being left unsaid?

From the disco..

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

[ronjon]

From the 11 AM NHC Disc:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

[southerngale]

Thanks Wx_Warrior. I don't particularly care for the looks of it though.

[duris]

Everyone should take a deep breath when it comes to the long term track. Have patience and wait for tonights 0z run and the info from the G4 mission. Then true concerns can be addressed.

I totally agree, but apparently some people in NO getting antsy already. Someone I work with went to Wal Mart last night, and all the canned food and water were gone already. The scary part is that means these people are planning to stay here, even after Katrina. Amazing. We're likely leaving even if its a tropical storm (highly doubtful of course) since our area flooded last time, though we are now supposedly safer than other areas.

[Brent]

The GFDL is a very reliable model... it being an outlier is very interesting.

[Sabanic]

The GFDL is a very reliable model... it being an outlier is very interesting.

Long way to go, and the models will continue to change most likely until Dean gets closer

[Wx_Warrior]

What concerns you most? Please tell me not the GFDL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The GFDL is a very reliable model... it being an outlier is very interesting.

What i find interestign is its not listening to its mother the GFS

[Sanibel]

I still see a remnant trough feature by the Antilles on WV. Others say it is at TUTT level, so therefore won't affect the storm, but I have to see that. You can see a weakness between the two ridges flowing N on WV loop at this remnant area. If Dean pulls a little north of track past the islands you'll know why.

One thing is pretty sure, this won't affect Florida. You can also see the SE US High setting up in the WV loop.

Congratulations GFS. I doubted you yet you pegged Martinique in 3 consecutive runs going back from 12z yesterday. Looks like Martinique will take an intensifying cyclone like Grenada took Ivan. Could be a bad hit. Wait and see.

[Cyclone1]

The GFDL is a very reliable model... it being an outlier is very interesting.

Long way to go, and the models will continue to change most likely until Dean gets closer

The question is, will the GFDL change to meet the otehr models, or will the other models change... to meet the GFDL?

[Extremeweatherguy]

At the speed Dean is going..he could already be offshore his final landfall point (whether it be Mexico or the U.S.) in JUST 6 days! That is really not a lot of time when you think about it. IF this were to head towards TX, we could already be seeing rain bands by next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning!

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Wx_Warrior]

From nencweather

"GFDL shows a ridge with a southern periphery oriented more northwest to southeast than other models. The 06Z NOGAPS had shown a similar solution. In previous years, GFDL has shown excellent skill, particularly in 2005, in predicting the strength of the subtropical ridge compared to other models. However, when given a secondary ridge such as the scenario seen here, it has performed poorly, often showing a bias to the north due to underestimating the new high pressure strength. This was seen several times in 2004. With respect to this, the track will remain in the guidance envelope, and will only be shifted northward if significant evidence that the secondary high pressure will not be as strong as indicated. Otherwise, no other major steering currents will impact Dean, and there is little else to say except that the farther north Dean goes, the slower it will move because the ridge will be weaker. The track forecast is down the center of the guidance envelope and takes Dean into the Yucatan Peninsula by Day 5."

[Wx_Warrior]

From nencweather

"GFDL shows a ridge with a southern periphery oriented more northwest to southeast than other models. The 06Z NOGAPS had shown a similar solution. In previous years, GFDL has shown excellent skill, particularly in 2005, in predicting the strength of the subtropical ridge compared to other models. However, when given a secondary ridge such as the scenario seen here, it has performed poorly, often showing a bias to the north due to underestimating the new high pressure strength. This was seen several times in 2004. With respect to this, the track will remain in the guidance envelope, and will only be shifted northward if significant evidence that the secondary high pressure will not be as strong as indicated. Otherwise, no other major steering currents will impact Dean, and there is little else to say except that the farther north Dean goes, the slower it will move because the ridge will be weaker. The track forecast is down the center of the guidance envelope and takes Dean into the Yucatan Peninsula by Day 5."

[msbee]

thanks again Derek
your information is so helpful...
It looks like Martinique is going to take a direct hit.
Btw, I get an error message trying to access your last link.

[SouthFloridawx]

003
URNT15 KNHC 161513
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 03 20070816
150600 1741N 06427W 6658 03628 0191 +061 -101 111023 024 999 999 03
150630 1741N 06426W 6478 03856 0178 +057 -159 101019 021 999 999 03
150700 1740N 06424W 6340 04033 0163 +059 -252 083020 020 999 999 03
150730 1740N 06423W 6201 04213 0161 +049 -264 087020 021 999 999 03
150800 1739N 06421W 6050 04414 0158 +035 -246 088021 021 999 999 03
150830 1739N 06419W 5909 04575 0137 +018 -257 083020 021 999 999 03
150900 1739N 06417W 5782 04752 0145 +003 -274 076020 020 999 999 03
150930 1738N 06416W 5654 04945 0158 -008 -273 079023 023 999 999 03
151000 1738N 06414W 5519 05138 0160 -018 -254 082025 026 999 999 03
151030 1738N 06412W 5397 05322 0312 -028 -279 083024 025 999 999 03
151100 1737N 06411W 5282 05486 0323 -027 -335 096025 025 999 999 03
151130 1737N 06409W 5179 05648 0333 -026 -360 095026 026 999 999 03
151200 1736N 06407W 5082 05798 0343 -027 -372 090027 028 999 999 03
151230 1736N 06406W 4993 05936 0354 -038 -378 087028 029 999 999 03
151300 1736N 06404W 4906 06078 0363 -047 -382 088027 028 999 999 03
151330 1735N 06402W 4831 06197 0371 -056 -385 090026 027 999 999 03
151400 1735N 06401W 4756 06317 0380 -066 -388 095024 025 999 999 03
151430 1735N 06359W 4691 06426 0389 -076 -379 098023 023 999 999 03
151500 1734N 06357W 4623 06539 0394 -086 -374 101021 022 999 999 03
151530 1734N 06355W 4553 06658 0401 -095 -384 103021 021 999 999 03
$$

[Derek Ortt]

that is ebcause I had dean as the 9th storm of the year... still have Flossie in my mind