CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

If Dean does enter the GOM and if conditions were right could it pose a threat as far east as LA/MS?

Yes. At this point everyone in the GOM is probably at equal risk. We will be able to narrow it down some each day as the storm gets nearer and the models come into more agreement, but for now you should be on guard from Key West all the way to Mexico (and also all the islands in the Caribbean).

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Winds gusted up to 50.5 kts at Buoy 41040 last hour....waves are upwards of 26 to 28 feet....WOW!!!!! Pressure bottomed out at 29.73 inches of mercury...

[EyELeSs1]

ive noticed a little wooble to the WNW in the last frames anyone else see this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

looks to be right on track to me??

[cheezyWXguy]

ive noticed a little wooble to the WNW in the last frames anyone else see this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I know what youre talking about. Its an illusion from expanding convection. I know, Iknow, we said the same thing yesterday, but today you can follow the eye...and that is moving due W. Even still, it is forecast to begin a wnw turn in a couple of hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

ive noticed a little wooble to the WNW in the last frames anyone else see this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

No..

[destruction92]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

[Weatherfreak14]

Ok just making sure, i was thinking my eyes were playin with me and they were, thanks yall for confirming a due west movement for right now.

[destruction92]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

[MGC]

I hate that 06Z GFDL run. I mentioned the trough/ULL last night and how I was concerned it would pull Dean north. This must be what the GFDL is seeing. Dean might catch up with the ULL and get pulled north.....MGC

[KWT]

Reminding me of Allen right now I have to admit as well as Ivan. Allan was about the same palce (about 1 degree further south ) as Dean and it bombed out from 80kts hurricane to a 115kts beast moving over the lesser Antilles. While it may not end up being as strong as Allen I suspect the NHC are being too conserative with its forecast right now, it seems likely that Dean will be a borderline cat-2 by 12hrs time, its not that far away now even.

As for track, Derek said over the last few hours its been moving at 280 degrees which looks right and about what was forecasted by the NHC.

[micktooth]

Extremeweatherguy, are you sure that is Dean you are looking at? I think it is the other Low in the Gulf. Check the link below and you can see where the GFS is forecasting Dean to go as of now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Sjones]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

If that holds to be true, that would be awesome!!! However, I don't think Texas will be anywhere near the clear until 24 hours before landfall or less. Hurricane Rita took a last minute east turn right before landfall, so that is why I refuse to let my guard down until the last minute.

['CaneFreak]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

I disagree....you misread what Mike said....there is a 40 % chance that Dean will strike the US period....whether it first hits Mexico then hits US or whether it hits just the US and misses Mexico...

[EyELeSs1]

Ok just making sure, i was thinking my eyes were playin with me and they were, thanks yall for confirming a due west movement for right now.

it's not quite due west...still a bit north of west but not quite WNW yet

[Steve]

vaffie,

That would be me. The European (ECMWF) combined with actual conditions in the WPAC is an alliance I'll usually live and die with in long term forecasting. That's the only reason I was speculating back when Dean was in the Cape Verdes that it wasn't going to hook off poleward. It doesn't always work (El Nino years it's a suspect teleconnection IMHO), and it's definitely not exact. But sometimes it's pretty uncanny. FWIW, I haven't gone to the JTWC site yet to see if it has Sepat still progged to bend back WNW from NW and even if it does, it may not matter with Dean because of its forward speed (which is substantially different than Sepat's as best as I can tell being lazy about it). Let's see:

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

Okay, yeah. It hits Taiwan and then bends back a little to the WNW saying that the ridge will build back in earnest in the US East Coast. If Dean was moving a little slower, I'd say that Texas or northern Mexico would be my early morning line for an eventual Gulf hit. But again, due to the speed differential (and dean moving NW at 120 hours), I wouldn't put a lot of creedence into the 7 day downstream as it all might be over but the shouting in 7 days.



Steve

[Sabanic]

Extremeweatherguy, are you sure that is Dean you are looking at? I think it is the other Low in the Gulf. Check the link below and you can see where the GFS is forecasting Dean to go as of now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

GFDL

[stormhorn]

Holy Crap!!

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[flwxwatcher]

Looking at the 06Z GFS 500 mb pattern, what I'm seeing is a weakness being created in the SE GOM by the ULL. It appears to be larger and stronger than previous runs and I dunno if it's slowed down or Dean has speeded up but I think this is the culprit that is inducing that NW turn in the 06Z GFDL. Notice the orientation of the Upper Ridge over N FL - it taking on an almost N-NW to S-SE orientation on the west side which indicates to me some erosion of the western side of the high at the upper levels to steer this storm more NW. This is going to be a nail biting scenario if this plays out in 3-4 days. These models sometimes don't forecast the strength nor movement of ULLs very well.

Good points Ronjon..
Indeed it looks like that ULL is what is creating that weakness and like you pointed out models really struggle sometimes with these features. Lets see how future model runs pan out and I will be watching how the models forecast the ULL down the road and see how it verifies.

[destruction92]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

I disagree....you misread what Mike said....there is a 40 % chance that Dean will strike the US period....whether it first hits Mexico then hits US or whether it hits just the US and misses Mexico...

Here is what M Watkins also said, "Most of the objective guidance suggests that Dean will plow into the Yucatan and then head south into the southern Gulf with a second Mexico landfall south of Brownsville, TX. Odds are on a Mexico-only situation after this clears the islands…but odds can and will change."

I think that says enough.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy, are you sure that is Dean you are looking at? I think it is the other Low in the Gulf. Check the link below and you can see where the GFS is forecasting Dean to go as of now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

No, it wasn't Dean. I was talking about the ULL in my post and when it will start to move. That circulation you see in my link is the ULL.