CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[windstorm99]

What the models say-Jeff Masters

The latest (00Z or 06Z) model runs from last night and early this morning don't show much change from yesterday's runs. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing very near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. None of the models show Dean moving northwards into Florida, and I don't see any feature in the steering currents that could potentially lead to a northern excursion by Dean into Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, or the East Coast of Florida. Landfall in the Yucatan are the preferred solutions, followed by an emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall near the Mexico/Texas border. I'd be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.

[Cyclone1]

Is that a pinhole eye forming? I really really hope not.

[Sabanic]

Jeff may be correct, but for now, and I am sure things will continue to change, the GFDL thinks otherwise.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! I really do not like the new 6z AEMN track! ATM, that is probably the worst case scenario for TX.

[mempho]

As far as the GFDL thing, let me tell you what *I think* is happening here. I think the GFDL is counting on the remnants from TS Erin overrunning that massive heat ridge to the northeast of it and breaking it down like a girlie man. I can say that if TS Erin fails to do this, the central Gulf is out of the question for Dean. That's a big *if* though. We're talking about a massively strong heat ridge versus copius amounts of moisture. On the other hand, if that ridge breaks down, Dean is going to come north.

In conclusion, I don't think that the GFDL is crazy in that I understand its logic. That doesn't mean that I think it is correct, though.

[swimaway19]

Comparing Dean to Emily and Ivan, Isn't he about 100 or so miles north of where they broke through the Lesser Antilles?

[Cyclone1]

Comparing Dean to Emily and Ivan, Isn't he about 100 or so miles north of where they broke through the Lesser Antilles?

Just what I was thinking.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Mr. Watkins makes a good point. (One we discussed in the medels thread yesterday) That low that is supposed to weaken/cutoff/retrograde is the fly in the ointment. I am watching it closely to see if it actually happens. Some setup:

1. Dean is moving a good clip here, but wasn't supposed to be

2. The Low over the Bahamas still looks healthy and hasn't started to move W yet

That weakness and how fast the ridge fills in are the determinant players in the track for the next 5 days. Some long timers here have seen the 5 days bust out many many times due to the difficulty in predicting the how strong the ridges/lows will be that far out. Upper air data is great but won't help the 5 day models much. Lastly the Climo model is out to right for a reason. Even with this pattern it's long odds to have a ridge with no weakness 5 days plus. My two cents..

[Chacor]

Didn't see this posted, so

000
WTNT64 KNHC 161239
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
830 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007
AT 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Jeff Masters:

"The GFDL and HWRF models have been mysteriously weakening Dean and keeping the storm weak during its passage over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and through the eastern Caribbean. These models have not been correct, and a continued slow strengthening of the storm as indicated by the SHIPS intensity model seems in order. Dry air will continue to slow the intensification process down until the storm gets in the central Caribbean, at which time Dean should be able to reach Category 3 or 4 status. Once in the western Caribbean, where the ocean heat content is near the record levels observed during 2005 (Figure 1), Dean could reach Category 5 status."

[windstorm99]

['CaneFreak]

What the models say-Jeff Masters

The latest (00Z or 06Z) model runs from last night and early this morning don't show much change from yesterday's runs. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing very near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. None of the models show Dean moving northwards into Florida, and I don't see any feature in the steering currents that could potentially lead to a northern excursion by Dean into Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, or the East Coast of Florida. Landfall in the Yucatan are the preferred solutions, followed by an emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall near the Mexico/Texas border. I'd be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.

you know jeff...it doesnt take a strong TROUGH of low pressure to weaken the ridge enough for a US landfall...all it takes is a small but powerful ULL moving westward across the GOM by days 3 and 4 to cause enough weakness to change the overall landfall probabilities...I think we will see more disagreement by the models than ever before for days 4 and 5 by 12 Z and until the NOAA flight goes in there.....who really knows where its going? ITS ALL ABOUT TIMING!!!!

[Cyclone1]

That eye is disturbingly small...

[HURAKAN]

Comparing Dean to Emily and Ivan, Isn't he about 100 or so miles north of where they broke through the Lesser Antilles?

Just what I was thinking.

I was just commenting on past hurricanes affecting the Lesser Antilles, not making any comparisons. Dean is clearly north of Ivan's and Emily's track.

[cycloneye]

The plane departs from ST Croix around 10:30 AM EDT and around 1 PM it will reach the eye.So stay tuned to this thread for all the data that will be comming.

[wiggles]

what does that mean?

[swimaway19]

How long did it take for Wilma to RI when she had a pinhole eye? This looks ominously similar to my untrained eye.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

976
WHXX01 KWBC 161300
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070816  1200   070817  0000   070817  1200   070818  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  53.3W   14.8N  58.9W   15.5N  64.4W   15.9N  69.0W
BAMD    13.5N  53.3W   14.4N  57.0W   15.2N  60.5W   15.9N  63.9W
BAMM    13.5N  53.3W   14.5N  57.7W   15.1N  61.9W   15.6N  65.6W
LBAR    13.5N  53.3W   14.0N  57.5W   14.6N  61.8W   15.1N  66.0W
SHIP        75KTS          83KTS          92KTS          99KTS
DSHP        75KTS          83KTS          92KTS          99KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070818  1200   070819  1200   070820  1200   070821  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  73.0W   15.3N  79.5W   14.9N  84.2W   16.7N  87.0W
BAMD    16.5N  67.2W   17.2N  73.8W   18.3N  81.3W   20.2N  88.6W
BAMM    16.0N  69.2W   16.7N  76.2W   17.3N  83.4W   18.0N  89.0W
LBAR    15.6N  69.9W   16.8N  75.5W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP       102KTS         105KTS         112KTS         112KTS
DSHP       102KTS         105KTS         112KTS          70KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  49.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  45.1W
WNDCUR =   75KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   60KT
CENPRS =  982MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  75NM
 
$$
NNNN


Winds up to 75kts now

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[WmE]

How long did it take for Wilma to RI when she had a pinhole eye? This looks ominously similar to my untrained eye.

Well, wilma was a once in a lifetime storm. She went from Ts to Cat 5 in 1 day, however the conditions were unbeliveable favorable. Basically Dean and Wilma are not comparable.