CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

Wow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

At least the RECON won't spend time finding the center!!!

Very interesting day ahead!!!

[Coredesat]

*waves surrender flag*

[Emmett_Brown]

If Dean doesn't slow down, could that upper/mid-level low east of Florida have an impact on the track or intensity?

I have been wondering the same thing this morning. The GFS shows the upper level low/tutt weakening and moving west just ahead of Dean:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=gfs_atlantic&prod=500&dtg=2007081512

The Nogaps shows the same thing, but a little slower, which seems to impart a more northward motion (just N of Jamaica):
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&prod=500&dtg=2007081600

Looking at the loop, it doesnt seem to be moving much at the moment, but Dean is still far away:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

What do the pro mets think... in the past i have heard chatter that models are too eager to disolve upper level lows/troughs that would otherwise shear a system. Should we believe the models this time, and assume an anti-cyclone will be aloft in 2 days, therefore ideal conditions for a major?

Ok, I didnt get much of a response, and realized that i addressed the question to the pro-mets, who are probably a little busy right now. How about the other board members... any thoughts? Will the tutt clear out as quickly as the models suggest?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it stays just ahead of the system it will be the classic pattern for a very strong caribbean storm. I think it will stay ahead for the next 24-36 hours. Then the system will need to start slowing down if it doe's not went to get sheared.

[Viper54r]

So much for the, "thats not an eye" crowd

[HURAKAN]

WOW!! I C U!!!

[caneman]

Ok, I didnt get much of a response, and realized that i addressed the question to the pro-mets, who are probably a little busy right now. How about the other board members... any thoughts? Will the tutt clear out as quickly as the models suggest?

Emmett,

Lets see if I can help. According to the NHC snippet below, the ridge is forecast to shunt the TUTT aside but looking at the wording there seems to be some uncertainty. We'll have to wait and see and I think have a much better idea when the NOAA jet flies.

THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN.

[TheShrimper]

Emmet, I hear what your saying. There must be some uncertainty. I cannot figure out, other than pure ignorance, why there have been hurricane watches issued by thier respective governments for Saba and St. Agnatius. They are very far north of the system. Once the atmosphere is sampled today, we'll have a better idea.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite imagery suggests a well-defined eye is becoming visible with Hurricane Dean. However, notice there is a restriction on its outflow on the western side. That is likely due to the ULL to the NE of the cyclone that is elongating southward. As Dean moves away from its influence, we'll likely see Dean develop faster. Would not be surprising to see it at category 3 strength or higher just as it hits the islands.

BTW, dry air is not a problem, neither is speed. Dry air would be a problem only when there is shear (which we don't have), and speed doesn't affect it as it has a well-developed LLC.

[Meso]

And look behind Dean ;o

[Nimbus]

Large hurricanes often pump up the ridge they develop under. If Dean develops into a major hurricane the ridge will be stronger. When you have a high pressure area moving west there is usually a complimentary low pressure area spinning the opposite direction rolling west out ahead of the ridge.

The current forecast seems reasonable Dean is definately starting to slowly gain latitude now. Barbados may be on the weak side of the storm which would be a blessing, but it does not look like Jamaica is going to get that lucky. By then Dean could be a major hurricane. This is turning into a serious situation and I don't think any of us have any special insight into how things are going to unfold.

[Viper54r]

[Eyewall]

i was watching the IR loop and i just realized.. it looks like its gonna have that "pinhole" eye
soo RI is more likely right?

[Thunder44]

I was just watching CNBC. Oil prices are going down this morning because they believe Dean may be more problem for the Yucatan than Texas.

[WmE]

i was watching the IR loop and i just realized.. it looks like its gonna have that "pinhole" eye
soo RI is more likely right?

IF it had a pinhole eye RI is a possibility.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me if its found by recon to be going through RI. It also would not suprize if it was a major.

[Thunder44]

WOW!! I C U!!!

The eye is really not that visible. You are seeing sun's reflection on the higher cloud tops west of the eye

[HURAKAN]

BETTER THAN EVER:

[WmE]

Well, it sure looks like a developing tiny (pinhole) eye.

I might be wrong though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its because it is a tiny pin hole eye. In this sucker by this afternoon "could" be found something a lot stronger then we think.