CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

I see some rapid intensification .. coming... people in Barbados watch out and the islands in the area need to "HUNKER DOWN " for tomorrow

[Normandy]

Man those poor poor people. I feel awful right now. Scratch on its way to becoming a hurricane, its CLEARLY already there. Now this is becoming a major.....

[Aric Dunn]

Ok ladies and jelly beans...

that is a EYE .. 615 image from the ramsdis site... confirms it ..





that is un-reputable

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dean is definitly a hurricane now, probably around 80 mph winds. To think that beauties like these are so destructive. Hunker Down is exactly what you guys in the antilles should be doing now.

[Normandy]

So.....
When will the NHC release a special statement? Clearly they must see whats going on..

Also, what time does recon fly into the storm tom?

[Aric Dunn]

So.....
When will the NHC release a special statement? Clearly they must see whats going on..

Also, what time does recon fly into the storm tom?

BUT BEGIN FIXING TD 04 AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 53.5W

3. TROPICAL STORM DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DEAN
C. 16/1430Z
D. 13.2N 53.7W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[crazycajuncane]

Local mets in South Central Louisiana didn't hype Dean nearly as much as last night. Both stations said it's really a watch and wait game right now and we really won't know what to expect until the latter part of the weekend.

I don't really know what to expect right now as I like to wait before making an educated guess. Too early to tell. Some models show a weakness down the road, but others show Dean into Mexico.

I do feel for the islands though.. Dean looks impressive this morning. As the days continue this will become much more interesting for the U.S.

[Viper54r]

As the days continue this will become much more interesting for the U.S.

Nah. it will take until Sunday night...until then everyone will proclaim how the next NHC update will be the one that determines a lot of things.

[Aric Dunn]

yes you all can see it now

[Viper54r]

yes you all can see it now

Still dont see it....j/j, you are the man

[crazycajuncane]

yes you all can see it now

Dean has awaken! He's got a nice eye.

[Aric Dunn]

[Thunder44]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0647 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 0600 070816 1800 070817 0600 070817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 51.3W 14.6N 56.6W 15.6N 62.0W 16.3N 66.9W
BAMD 13.2N 51.3W 14.1N 55.2W 14.9N 58.7W 15.6N 62.1W
BAMM 13.2N 51.3W 14.3N 56.0W 15.0N 60.5W 15.4N 64.6W
LBAR 13.2N 51.3W 13.8N 55.2W 14.5N 59.6W 15.0N 63.8W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 82KTS 93KTS
DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 82KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 0600 070819 0600 070820 0600 070821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 71.1W 15.9N 78.2W 15.8N 83.6W 17.6N 87.4W
BAMD 16.3N 65.5W 17.5N 72.8W 19.0N 80.9W 21.4N 88.8W
BAMM 15.7N 68.5W 16.2N 75.7W 16.9N 82.9W 18.1N 88.6W
LBAR 15.4N 67.8W 16.7N 74.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 100KTS 101KTS 111KTS 113KTS
DSHP 100KTS 101KTS 111KTS 113KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 51.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 47.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

No suprise, but the 6z models initialized at 65kts and 987mb. This should be our first hurricane of the season at 5am.

[Scorpion]

At least its finally a hurricane.. I think its around 75 kts right now though

[lamsalfl]

and universities open on Monday...

At least we will know by Sunday if it is headed due west into the Bay of Campeche and then central Mexico, or headed towards TX/LA before school starts.

Dean is really bombing away now. I expect to see 80 mph by 8am.

[Hurricane Cheese]

This one is starting to remind me of Ivan when he approached the Islands in 2004, and we all remember what he did to Grenada (90% of all structures damaged/destroyed) as a Cat 4.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if this took on a VERY similar life span to Ivan, IMO of course. People in the gulf need to be aware of the situation.

[DrewFL]

Gonna have to work a little harder to show me a real hurricane:

[Evil Jeremy]

Its going to be more powerfull than 75 MPH at 5

[Scorpion]

Ivan was a 105 kt Cat 3 over Grenada.. I'm afraid this one might be similar

[lamsalfl]

Doesn't it take a bit longer for the winds to catch up?