Low Level Circulation??

[Steve H.]

Seems to me there is a LLC trying to develop due west of Jamaica to the north of the big convection in the SW Caribbean. Shows up on vis loops; haven't checked the latest models, but NOGAPS and GFS showed an area near the Northern Yucatan/BOC at 120 hours on the 0Z run. ANy other data out there? CHeers!!

[OtherHD]

Check WV

Or as Stormsfury calls it: "Water wavor".

QuikSCAT: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png

[Colin]

Very interesting... Maybe we'll get something out of this! We'll have to keep a very close eye on it, that's for sure... :o

[wx247]

There seems to be an increase in convection around this area. Hmm...

[ColdFront77]

It isn't that there is not a circulation at all. There appears to be a circulation off the southwest Florida coast, near Cuba.

It isn't like there is no circulation at all with this system or that there are clear skies over a relatively favorable region for tropical development.

[Anonymous]

Development is very unlikely. For one thing, it's completely disorganized. Not surprising since it's located in a region of strong shear driven by both the upper low and the mid latitude trough to the north. Although the ULL will crap out within the next day or so, the shear pattern probably won't become any better. Might I add the disturbance in the EPAC and the trough will serve as moisture robbers. In other words...this is a no show.

[ColdFront77]

I never said it should or was going to develop. Just adding to the discussion of my observation.

[Steve]

>>Might I add the disturbance in the EPAC and the trough will serve as moisture robbers. In other words...this is a no show

Most of the 12z models (Globals) continue to alternate the moisture from the EPAC to the BOC as has been the case the last couple of weeks. I think it's a no show as well. However, the eastern side of the wave interacting with an ULL is definitely producing some serious convection down there today and proving again that the waves aren't getting really strong (convection wise) as they cross the Atlantic until they get pretty far into the Caribbean. The AVN 12Z wants to close something off and merge it with a trof (front probably) coming down throgh South LA in a few days.

My take? Some of the moisture eventually gets shunted into Central America then the Pacific while some energy ends up getting entrained into the front and probably raining on Florida.

Steve

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't completely write this off yet. Circulation over Northern Honduras moving NW. Wait and See IMO.

[cycloneye]

Yes what the west Florida area doesn't need more rain but if the models are right there will be plenty of moistere going to that area in comming days.

[Colin]

We can't really give up on any sort of circulation... Although it may appear that it is not going to develop, it could surprise us.

[Stormsfury]

Check WV

Or as Stormsfury calls it: "Water wavor".

QuikSCAT: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png

Alright - , *LOL* - Hmmm, the chat secret is out!...*LOL*

I referred to a water vapor loop in chat last week as water wavor...*LOL*

Hey, it's better than "humping a sandwich"...*LOL*

[Colin]

Check WV

Or as Stormsfury calls it: "Water wavor".

QuikSCAT: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png

Hey, it's better than "humping a sandwich"...*LOL*

LOL!

[wxman57]

What you're looking at is the mid to upper-level circulation associated with the upper-level low. There is absolutely <b>no</b> evidence of any low-level circulation. I suggest checking the latest QuickScat winds:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png
In fact, the wave axis itself is hardly visible. It will be 36-48 hours before shear relaxes enough for any development to occur.

[ColdFront77]

That is why we shouldn't take our "tropical meteorological eyes" off of it. Something is there, spin at whatever level of the atmosphere... that has potential no matter how low or high that potential may be (percentage wise).

[Colin]

wxman57, can you explain that image to me? I don't understand those kind of images. Thanks!

[wxman57]

Here's the link to the main QuickScat web page:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/quikscat/

Polar-orbiting satellites are used to measure the movement of low clouds in an attempt to estimate the surface wind flow across the tropics. That's why you see an "ascending pass" image and a "descending pass" image. Each image, itself, is a compilation of multiple orbits of the satellite (90 min per orbit).

Now, the graphic itself uses standard meteorological symbols to indicate wind direction and speed. Here, I made up an example in PaintShop Pro:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/windsymbol.gif">

Let me know if you have any more questions.

[Derek Ortt]

Low-level circ? Uh uh. That was all mid and upper levels and these typically do not develop this far south. These features usually develop in the mid-latitudes, such as Michael when a TC can form inside of the UL (2 other examples would be Unnamed 1991 and Arlene, 1999).

The show in the the EPAC. Yesterday, the statistical models were in agreement of a cane (though this is not a TD, so that is in question).

if this sounded a bit like jibberish, forgive me. Just woke up and am thinking about another day of looking at old recon data for Hurricane Lili at work

[Steve H.]

There was clearly a LLC over NE Honduras yesterday which has drifted NW overnight. Visible satellite imagery picks these up better than a quicscat run. quickscat doesn't have enough definition to pick up small low level cloudcirculations over land. I trust my eyes mote than quikscat. That being said, until we get a good look at visible loops today, we won't be able to determine whether it is still there, although a slight turning in the convection to the east suggests it may be. Let's see what today brings.

[PTrackerLA]

After looking at a short visible loop of this area I see lots of convection but little organization. It is something to watch nonetheless.