CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Lowpressure]

ADT numbers just dropped, not sure why

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt04L.html

Maybe the GFDL and HWRF are on to something....

Does not appear to be a weakening storm at all. Based on limited night data.

[Wx_Warrior]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

[jacindc]

Actually, there now is a tsunami advisory for Hawaii:

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
220 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE
AT 0220 PM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0141 PM HST 15 AUG 2007
COORDINATES - 13.5 SOUTH 76.7 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF PERU
MAGNITUDE - 7.9 MOMENT

EVALUATION

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EXPANDING
REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE EARTHQUAKE. AN EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC
WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT IS UNDERWAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
HAWAII COULD BE ELEVATED TO A WATCH OR WARNING STATUS.

IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THEIR ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL
TIME IS

0214 AM HST THU 16 AUG 2007

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/h ... 002055.txt

[HURAKAN]

Please, there is a thread in the off-topic for the earthquake.

THIS IS DEAN'S THREAD.

[jacindc]

Please, there is a thread in the off-topic for the earthquake.

THIS IS DEAN'S THREAD.

Sorry, just trying to correct misinformation.

[artist]

hmmm models initiated center .1 south....strange... BTW hows do you interpret this?
Lat : 13:18:06 N Lon : 48:45:15 W

Lat: 13.3N and Lon: 48.8W right?

if you are rounding then I would think it would be 13.2 n 48.5 w

[RL3AO]

Please, there is a thread in the off-topic for the earthquake.

THIS IS DEAN'S THREAD.

We are just correcting incorrect information.

[Jinkers]

Just got done watching Max Mayfield on channel 10 here in South Florida, and he said he with the data from the NHC expects TS Dean to be a cat. 4 hurricane. Said the forcast models can change, but most likely will stay on the track it's on now.

[wxman57]

hmmm models initiated center .1 south....strange... BTW hows do you interpret this?
Lat : 13:18:06 N Lon : 48:45:15 W

Lat: 13.3N and Lon: 48.8W right?

It's drawing in that large blob of moisture to the south now. That'll make the center wobble around a lot in the next 24 hours until it grows in size with the added moisture. One old rule of thumb - the center always follows the convection.

[PTPatrick]

Oddly enough...whatever Accuweather's long range is based on(I thought GFS) is hinting at a NGOM strike. I checked Forcast from MObile, to New Orleans and they all have "very windy " wording thursday and friday. This is a change as earlier they were hot and dry with highs around 101. Now that would have told me that the model was using the high to generate high temps like that...and now it isnt... Now emplying its right just making the statement...its odd. Their 10 day is usually crap anyway.

http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15d ... 2&metric=0


OKay...its say windy for HOuston too, but not south of Corpus Christi..so who knows

[hial2]

hmmm models initiated center .1 south....strange... BTW hows do you interpret this?
Lat : 13:18:06 N Lon : 48:45:15 W

Lat: 13.3N and Lon: 48.8W right?

if you are rounding then I would think it would be 13.2 n 48.5 w

The top one is in minutes and seconds...18.06 rounds off to 3 (in 60 minutes) and the 45.15 to 8 (in 60 minutes)

[marcane_1973]

How much you think that good bit of dry air just west of Dean will effect him?

[weatherguru18]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

Houston...we have a problem. Let's remember back to Rita. Everybody (approx. 50% of Houston) fled. It was the largest evacuation in U.S. history. And what happened? Rita missed us. Though the pro mets can tell us why, all the public remembers is us crying fowl.

With a city of just under 6 million, the hurricane that wasn't has made up peoples minds that come hell or high water...they will not leave again. This is a huge problem. One day Houston will be hit hard...possibly with a Cat. 5...possibly with Dean. With the mass evacuation so fresh on locals here, I doubt that many will leave, including those in surge areas. Today I have spent time on the phone with friends and relatives telling them that buying batteries and water now and keeping the gas tanks full should become priority soon. My efforts are fruitless. It's as if it's no big deal. Infact they often end by saying "even if it does come here as a Cat. 5...I AIN'T LEAVIN!"

Evacuations for Houston (if it came to that) would need to begin Monday or Tuesday of next week. This storm will still be hundreds of miles from the SE TX coast...what will the local officials do?? Wait or error on the side of caution? It's no wonder that the city of Houston is on "red alert" so to speak...along with any other city on the gulf coast.

I'm not -removed-...just stating the facts that we have a big problem and the potential casualty rate is huge.

[Jinkers]

Here is a link to Max Mayfield's hurricane blog..

http://www.local10.com/mayfieldblog/ind ... index.html

[CrazyC83]

A catastrophic first impact (in the Caribbean) will make evacuation more likely at final landfall (on the US or Mexican Gulf Coast in this case)...

[Cape Verde]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

Houston...we have a problem. Let's remember back to Rita. Everybody (approx. 50% of Houston) fled. It was the largest evacuation in U.S. history. And what happened? Rita missed us. Though the pro mets can tell us why, all the public remembers is us crying fowl.

With a city of just under 6 million, the hurricane that wasn't has made up peoples minds that come hell or high water...they will not leave again. This is a huge problem. One day Houston will be hit hard...possibly with a Cat. 5...possibly with Dean. With the mass evacuation so fresh on locals here, I doubt that many will leave, including those in surge areas. Today I have spent time on the phone with friends and relatives telling them that buying batteries and water now and keeping the gas tanks full should become priority soon. My efforts are fruitless. It's as if it's no big deal. Infact they often end by saying "even if it does come here as a Cat. 5...I AIN'T LEAVIN!"

Evacuations for Houston (if it came to that) would need to begin Monday or Tuesday of next week. This storm will still be hundreds of miles from the SE TX coast...what will the local officials do?? Wait or error on the side of caution? It's no wonder that the city of Houston is on "red alert" so to speak...along with any other city on the gulf coast.

I'm not -removed-...just stating the facts that we have a big problem and the potential casualty rate is huge.

I made the same point on the Erin thread an hour or so ago, and nobody believes me.

[hial2]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

Houston...we have a problem. Let's remember back to Rita. Everybody (approx. 50% of Houston) fled. It was the largest evacuation in U.S. history. And what happened? Rita missed us. Though the pro mets can tell us why, all the public remembers is us crying fowl.

With a city of just under 6 million, the hurricane that wasn't has made up peoples minds that come hell or high water...they will not leave again. This is a huge problem. One day Houston will be hit hard...possibly with a Cat. 5...possibly with Dean. With the mass evacuation so fresh on locals here, I doubt that many will leave, including those in surge areas. Today I have spent time on the phone with friends and relatives telling them that buying batteries and water now and keeping the gas tanks full should become priority soon. My efforts are fruitless. It's as if it's no big deal. Infact they often end by saying "even if it does come here as a Cat. 5...I AIN'T LEAVIN!"

Evacuations for Houston (if it came to that) would need to begin Monday or Tuesday of next week. This storm will still be hundreds of miles from the SE TX coast...what will the local officials do?? Wait or error on the side of caution? It's no wonder that the city of Houston is on "red alert" so to speak...along with any other city on the gulf coast.

I'm not -removed-...just stating the facts that we have a big problem and the potential casualty rate is huge.

Perhaps the iocal media should run pictures of NO during/after Katrina

[CW0262]

As I said quite a few pages back the dry air is already training it's way in and cutting off some of the banding.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

It's got to make it across death valley

[Evil Jeremy]

The dry air shouldnt do much at all, especially during the DM tonight!

[wxwatcher91]

lol yeah me too