CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... I don't know, but I see no point in running a model if the correct data isn't in it.

[hial2]

ya know what.. I have a gut feeling, not -removed-, or anything like that, last time I had it, it was with Charley. AND I hope I am wrong, but I really feel like Dean will move more North. I know gut feelings have no scientific data. But I am a woman and my gut feelings are usually pretty close to being right. THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC DATA OR COMPUTER MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS.. just me...

One thing I've learned in life...NEVER bet against a woman's gut feeling...

[Wx_Warrior]

Dean's a man so he may make his own mind up!!! LOLOL

[miamicanes177]

18Z GFDL track shift to the north...could be a huge development.

12Z had it at 18.4N 87W
18Z has it at 20.5N 87.4W

*

Not likely, this is probaly in response the WNW track Dean was on earlier. Now it looks like Dean is back on 270*

Yes it is a big deal.

18Z has it heading 296* at 20.5N 87.4W
12Z had it heading 281* at 18.4N 87W

[swampdude]

Dean's a man so he may make his own mind up!!! LOLOL

But won't ask for directions!

[tracyswfla]

Dean's a man so he may make his own mind up!!! LOLOL

Sorry I went OT. no bashing, no one has and thanks for that, I was worried about even mentioning it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I still think with the ridge this should be a yucatan and
then western gulf of mexico storm. The ridge should
protect florida. But everyone should watch it still.
Things can change.

[Lowpressure]

ya know what.. I have a gut feeling, not -removed-, or anything like that, last time I had it, it was with Charley. AND I hope I am wrong, but I really feel like Dean will move more North. I know gut feelings have no scientific data. But I am a woman and my gut feelings are usually pretty close to being right. THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC DATA OR COMPUTER MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS.. just me...

One thing I've learned in life...NEVER bet against a woman's gut feeling...

hial2 Check your pm.

[hurricanetrack]

I think Dean has a ticket for Belize and then Veracruz for some R & R. This just looks fairly solid, even this far out. That's what makes this so interesting, there is rarely a given with these things! We'll know soon enough!

[jrod]

18Z GFDL track shift to the north...could be a huge development.

12Z had it at 18.4N 87W
18Z has it at 20.5N 87.4W

*

Not likely, this is probaly in response the WNW track Dean was on earlier. Now it looks like Dean is back on 270*

Yes it is a big deal.

18Z has it heading 296* at 20.5N 87.4W
12Z had it heading 281* at 18.4N 87W

It is not a big deal because the model was going off a temporary WNW movement, now that it is moving west again it will shift it's forecast to the left on the next run.


We really need the noaa gulfstream's data. It will help with all the flip flopping the models are doing.

[Cryomaniac]

I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

There we go!! $$$$$$$ Ding,ding,ding!!

I know this is rather off topic, but my personal feeling is that if this current level of tropical activity continues (along with other factors, eg. middle east stuff), oil prices could rise to >$80 per barrel, which is by no means what anyone wants to happen.

The above is my personal opinion, and is not based on any data, meterological, economic, or otherwise.

[caribepr]

"Persons living in dwellings, whose structure may not be of the quality of the house constructed out of concrete, should make alternative arrangements in the event of a hurricane threat."

I love Roddy! What an elegant way to put what we know is such a hard reality.
Yes, it isn't looking good for our mid-chain friends right now...
Where's my magic wand when I really need it?

[MGC]

GFDL must be seeing the same thing I am seeing.....trough/ULL to the north of Cuba causing a weakness....stay tuned......MGC

[miamicanes177]

18Z HWRF makes this a tropical depression it looks like...around 1004mb in 5 days this run. Throw it out the window.

[tgenius]

MGC, that the 18z run your looking at?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z HWRF makes this a tropical depression it looks like...around 1004mb in 5 days this run. Throw it out the window.

Good god...Had a Cat 6 last run..LOL

[Ivanhater]

GFDL must be seeing the same thing I am seeing.....trough/ULL to the north of Cuba causing a weakness....stay tuned......MGC

[tracyswfla]

"Persons living in dwellings, whose structure may not be of the quality of the house constructed out of concrete, should make alternative arrangements in the event of a hurricane threat."

I love Roddy! What an elegant way to put what we know is such a hard reality.
Yes, it isn't looking good for our mid-chain friends right now...
Where's my magic wand when I really need it?

why can't we get 747's in there to evac??? Seriously...

[swimaway19]

And Here I was think that the HWRF looked the most likely last time. I guess that debunks my own impression...

[Bgator]

18Z HWRF makes this a tropical depression it looks like...around 1004mb in 5 days this run. Throw it out the window.

Good god...Had a Cat 6 last run..LOL

DO you have the graphic or a site?