CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[miamicanes177]

18Z GFDL track shift to the north...could be a huge development.

12Z had it at 18.4N 87W
18Z has it at 20.5N 87.4W

[jrod]

Everyone may want to take this chance to top off their gas tanks. Local news reports that all gas goes up at least 10 cents a gallon tomorrow. All of this is an industry-level response to Erin and Dean.

Darn, I already started drinking.

[CronkPSU]

Will someone please give me his/her educated opinion as to whether SE Florida is out of the woods pretty much for certain?

yes pretty much for certain...almost

[sunnyday]

Please explain what the northern shift could be a huge development. Thanks so much.

[jrod]

18Z GFDL track shift to the north...could be a huge development.

12Z had it at 18.4N 87W
18Z has it at 20.5N 87.4W

*

Not likely, this is probaly in response the WNW track Dean was on earlier. Now it looks like Dean is back on 270*

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

Strengthening didn't happen like some of us were suspecting. I guess the dry air is keeping it down.

Track seems to have caught the underside of the ridge more now (GFDL). Guidance more solid.

Could notch slightly above forecast track, but Dominica does look reasonable. Lucky the dry air is keeping the intensity down. But pull-ups are always possible if it feels a weakness.

[jaxfladude]

any chances of a 8pm intermediary advisory for Dean....



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[RL3AO]

Our first intermediate advisory should be at 2am...maybe 8am. But a hurricane watch should be issued tonight IMO.

[Lowpressure]

I agree on the northerly component has stopped. I was hopping to get some swell out of this, but looks like Florida will continue to be flat, even though it is our swell winds, there has been minimal ESE winds for most of life for Dean so far, meaning Florida can expect only a minor swell. I hate to be so selfish when a storm is out there with the potential to become a monster, the swell is my primary interest when i look at the weather.

Yes, and you should go to the poles.

[canegrl04]

Code: Select all

001
WHXX04 KWBC 152329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN      04L

INITIAL TIME  18Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.8             46.9           285./19.0
   6            13.1             49.1           279./20.9
  12            13.5             51.3           280./22.1
  18            13.9             53.4           282./20.6
  24            14.6             55.6           286./22.1
  30            14.9             58.0           279./23.8
  36            15.0             60.6           271./24.8
  42            15.0             62.9           270./22.2
  48            15.1             64.7           271./17.5
  54            15.3             66.6           278./18.3
  60            15.8             68.8           281./21.8
  66            16.0             71.1           275./22.2
  72            16.1             73.0           275./18.8
  78            16.4             74.7           279./15.7
  84            16.5             76.2           276./15.0
  90            17.2             77.7           292./15.8
  96            17.8             79.6           290./19.2
 102            18.2             81.3           282./16.0
 108            18.7             82.9           286./16.4
 114            19.0             84.3           285./13.6
 120            19.8             85.9           297./17.0
 126            20.5             87.4           296./15.4


Whats disturbing his the lattitude at 126 hours.A hit in the US

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I still have faith in more development tonite. Remember, we are still in the DM phase. Around 12pm-1am we may see a significant uptick in strengthening.

[tracyswfla]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ya know what.. I have a gut feeling, not -removed-, or anything like that, last time I had it, it was with Charley. AND I hope I am wrong, but I really feel like Dean will move more North. I know gut feelings have no scientific data. But I am a woman and my gut feelings are usually pretty close to being right. THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC DATA OR COMPUTER MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS.. just me...

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS again initialized the system @ 1008mb.... .

[Brent]

Our first intermediate advisory should be at 2am...maybe 8am. But a hurricane watch should be issued tonight IMO.

It needs to be, gonna be in the islands Friday MORNING. Getting here fast...

[swampdude]

ya know what.. I have a gut feeling, not -removed-, or anything like that, last time I had it, it was with Charley. AND I hope I am wrong, but I really feel like Dean will move more North. I know gut feelings have no scientific data. But I am a woman and my gut feelings are usually pretty close to being right. THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC DATA OR COMPUTER MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS.. just me...

Men have those feelings too, but it is usually just gas.........

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS again initialized the system @ 1008mb.... .

SFWX..DO you ever recall this happening so much?

['CaneFreak]

Code: Select all

001
WHXX04 KWBC 152329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN      04L

INITIAL TIME  18Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.8             46.9           285./19.0
   6            13.1             49.1           279./20.9
  12            13.5             51.3           280./22.1
  18            13.9             53.4           282./20.6
  24            14.6             55.6           286./22.1
  30            14.9             58.0           279./23.8
  36            15.0             60.6           271./24.8
  42            15.0             62.9           270./22.2
  48            15.1             64.7           271./17.5
  54            15.3             66.6           278./18.3
  60            15.8             68.8           281./21.8
  66            16.0             71.1           275./22.2
  72            16.1             73.0           275./18.8
  78            16.4             74.7           279./15.7
  84            16.5             76.2           276./15.0
  90            17.2             77.7           292./15.8
  96            17.8             79.6           290./19.2
 102            18.2             81.3           282./16.0
 108            18.7             82.9           286./16.4
 114            19.0             84.3           285./13.6
 120            19.8             85.9           297./17.0
 126            20.5             87.4           296./15.4


Whats disturbing his the lattitude at 126 hours.A hit in the US

Ahhhhhhhhh....last time I checked 20.5 N 87.4 West was a hit in the Yucatan Not trying to be mean....just saying....

[CronkPSU]

who initializes the GFS...someone said for the second straight run it was initialized at 1008 mb

[tracyswfla]

ya know what.. I have a gut feeling, not -removed-, or anything like that, last time I had it, it was with Charley. AND I hope I am wrong, but I really feel like Dean will move more North. I know gut feelings have no scientific data. But I am a woman and my gut feelings are usually pretty close to being right. THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC DATA OR COMPUTER MODELS TO SUPPORT THIS.. just me...

Men have those feelings too, but it is usually just gas.........

LMAO!