CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[miamicanes177]

Is anyone expecting anything weaker than a category 5 in the caribbean? Low wind shear, moist environment, well organized structure, and the warmest waters in the Atlantic. I would think most everyone here expects a Katrina, Rita, Wilma type intensification. I do too.

[jasons2k]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

Yeah and last night he said "nothing was developing in the GOM" because there were "only 16mph winds there" about 30 minutes before the system was upgraded to TD5.

[storms in NC]

I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

There we go!! $$$$$$$ Ding,ding,ding!!

Well, Ivan cost us about $2 billion in damage to our offshore operations, so don't think we're hoping it will happen again.

Sorry but that is a drop in the hat there. When the man ret on 400 mil a year. Give me a brake.

[sunnyday]

The headlines in the Palm Beach Post today say that Dean will be a "catastrophic category 4" hurricane by Monday afternoon after it gets in the Gulf. I am thankful that it should miss this area, but I am so concerned for those living on the beautiful Gulf. We should be praying for them already.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is anyone expecting anything weaker than a category 5 in the caribbean? Low wind shear, moist environment, well organized structure, and the warmest waters in the Atlantic. I would think most everyone here expects a Katrina, Rita, Wilma type intensification. I do too.

Im calling for a cat5 180 if it goes where it supposed to go..

[RL3AO]

Is anyone expecting anything weaker than a category 5 in the caribbean? Low wind shear, moist environment, well organized structure, and the warmest waters in the Atlantic. I would think most everyone here expects a Katrina, Rita, Wilma type intensification. I do too.

You can never expect a Cat 5. Conditions and timing have to be perfect. It could reach cat 5 intensity, but you can never expect it.

[sunnyday]

A side thought, but where is Berwick Bay?

[storms in NC]

Well I am done for the night. You have a good one.

Deb

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This could easily become at least a category 4 in the caribbean.
The heat content is explosive. As for the current time, it does
appear to be nearing hurricane strength on the images posted
by Hurakan.

[Cape Verde]

Sorry but that is a drop in the hat there. When the man ret on 400 mil a year. Give me a brake.

I'd try to refute that, but I'm not sure it was english.

[swampdude]

Everyone may want to take this chance to top off their gas tanks. Local news reports that all gas goes up at least 10 cents a gallon tomorrow. All of this is an industry-level response to Erin and Dean.

[sunnyday]

Will someone please give me his/her educated opinion as to whether SE Florida is out of the woods pretty much for certain?

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

001
WHXX04 KWBC 152329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN      04L

INITIAL TIME  18Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.8             46.9           285./19.0
   6            13.1             49.1           279./20.9
  12            13.5             51.3           280./22.1
  18            13.9             53.4           282./20.6
  24            14.6             55.6           286./22.1
  30            14.9             58.0           279./23.8
  36            15.0             60.6           271./24.8
  42            15.0             62.9           270./22.2
  48            15.1             64.7           271./17.5
  54            15.3             66.6           278./18.3
  60            15.8             68.8           281./21.8
  66            16.0             71.1           275./22.2
  72            16.1             73.0           275./18.8
  78            16.4             74.7           279./15.7
  84            16.5             76.2           276./15.0
  90            17.2             77.7           292./15.8
  96            17.8             79.6           290./19.2
 102            18.2             81.3           282./16.0
 108            18.7             82.9           286./16.4
 114            19.0             84.3           285./13.6
 120            19.8             85.9           297./17.0
 126            20.5             87.4           296./15.4


[canegrl04]

Everyone may want to take this chance to top off their gas tanks. Local news reports that all gas goes up at least 10 cents a gallon tomorrow. All of this is an industry-level response to Erin and Dean.

Give me abreak Erin is not a threat to oil supplies .Dean -definitely

[Viper54r]

Sorry but that is a drop in the hat there. When the man ret on 400 mil a year. Give me a brake.

I'd try to refute that, but I'm not sure it was english.

Is he trying to say something about the Exxon CEO retiring with the multi-hundred million dollar package last year?

[hial2]

Everyone may want to take this chance to top off their gas tanks. Local news reports that all gas goes up at least 10 cents a gallon tomorrow. All of this is an industry-level response to Erin and Dean.

Nope...Oil future traders are the guilty party..They're gambling on an oil shortage due to Dean..BTW,I did mention this scenario yesterday...

[canetracker]

Thanks, all of you...we do worry (and sometimes are heartbroken) about you after we're done worrying about ourselves!

There are some really great posts in here. Yes, I and most on this site are concerned for you as well. I told the Doctor that I work with about TS Dean. He said to me that it may not get to us or even in the Gulf, but my reply was, "I know, but I am concerned about the islands". Many great posters, from the islands, post in here and you are all in my thoughts. Be safe.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Everyone may want to take this chance to top off their gas tanks. Local news reports that all gas goes up at least 10 cents a gallon tomorrow. All of this is an industry-level response to Erin and Dean.

Give me abreak Erin is not a threat to oil supplies .Dean -definitely

Erin being a storm simply does increase the prices.
And Dean will too.

It's getting very well organized. High heat content
waters, low shear, moisture, rapid intensification is likely.

[jrod]

I agree on the northerly component has stopped. I was hopping to get some swell out of this, but looks like Florida will continue to be flat, even though it is our swell winds, there has been minimal ESE winds for most of life for Dean so far, meaning Florida can expect only a minor swell. I hate to be so selfish when a storm is out there with the potential to become a monster, the swell is my primary interest when i look at the weather.

[secretforecaster]

A side thought, but where is Berwick Bay?

I've been wondering that too!