CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing more than I can do is wait and speculate and read what everyone on here thinks and wants to say.

Of course it will change...Look how many times it has since yesterday!

[JTD]

Also,

Something that just popped into my head, remember the 11 a.m Sunday NHC forecast for Rita. It was supposed to go straight west all the way into Mexico. Made landfall on the TX/LA border instead. And that was just a 5 day forecast and it was wrong.

I haven't seen a storm lately that has just gone straight west. I would expect this storm to make landfall farther north and east than whatever is expected 5 days out just based on history.

I do see Western LA as being the extreme easternmost that this gets though.

That area of Mexico that the GFS progs would be very good I do believe. Sparsely populated.

Edit: Oh and I'm not a meterologist. I'm just basing this on history and my opinion. Don't critcize me please. LOL.

[cheezyWXguy]

Why dont yall take a look at this map and see its not the first storm moving this far west. Allen and Andrew were in this area and made landfall in the western GOM

[ronjon]

We all have to remember we are looking 5-7 days in these models. Just look at the dramatic flip-flops we have seen over the last 24 hrs with the western Atlantic trough and cutoff ULL. The science is just not to the point where we can predcit with any real certainty the upper level pattern at this time frame. The jet over the mid-section of the country is controlled by what happens upstream in the Gulf of Alaska and the northern Pacific Ocean - and we really don't have good data up there.

[Derek Ortt]

make that sound the alarm at 8 a.m. in all liklihood... not sure waiting until 11 is prudent

[TSmith274]

Why dont yall take a look at this map and see its not the first storm moving this far west. Allen and Andrew were in this area and made landfall in the western GOM

Agreed... ole Bob Breck just showed this graphic on his telecast.

[clfenwi]

>>..furthest west was Alabama

Actually Geroges 1998 made landfall further west than Fredrick '79. He made landfall in Harrison or Jackson County Mississippi (3 counties on the coast from west to east are Hancock, Harrison, Jackson).

Steve

Indeed, it was Ocean Springs, Jackson County Mississippi. I was guilty of looking at the storm names that were over the US and saw Frederic, which made me think that Alabama was the furthest west landfall on that map. That was not the case, of course. Thanks for catching that.

[Ivanhater]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

[CourierPR]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

I think Dr. Lyons may be right. No pun intended. I'm not yet sold on that projected west track.

[wzrgirl1]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

did he really say that or are you joking?

[sunnyday]

Did he say what area might be affected if it moves north?

[Derek Ortt]

northerly movement seems to be ending

I cannot see this entering the Caribbean north of Martinique, France. It could go over St Lucia as well

[gerrit]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

What about this:

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Steve lyons said track may need to be adjusted north with this new trend of a more northerly movement wobble! lol

I think Dr. Lyons may be right. No pun intended. I'm not yet sold on that projected west track.

Dont be so sure. When its only at about 13N, and the high is expected to build in overnight, putting it on a more western track, this could easily get through the caribbean without getting too close to the northern islands, since there at about 18-20N ir so. Also, I see its wnw movement beginning to tone down slightly, though maybe its an illusion from the convection

[Ptarmigan]

Northern movement was just a temporary wobble. Dean is going to continue to move west.

[Cape Verde]

I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

[hial2]

I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

There we go!! $$$$$$$ Ding,ding,ding!!

[Cape Verde]

I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

There we go!! $$$$$$$ Ding,ding,ding!!

Well, Ivan cost us about $2 billion in damage to our offshore operations, so don't think we're hoping it will happen again.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[Steve]

>>I work in the oil and gas industry. We are mobilizing our crisis team tomorrow.

Louisiana House Emergency Committee met today and will start meeting, if necessary daily on Saturday. Apparently for the first time ever, all of our medical facilities are actually hooked up to generators which have been tested and are ready to be turned on at will - or something like that.

Steve