Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[RL3AO]

They should lock these threads while a storm is under diurnal minimum.

[rainman31]

Dr neil frank just reported a bouy near the center reported only 20mph.

[Bailey1777]

This is not a pulse down this is the end. Rain yes,( not tremendous though ),storm no.

[wxman57]

Well, just finished a 14hr shift working Dean mostly, but briefing on Erin a lot. It appears that Erin has a very broad and poorly-defined LLC to the south of a stronger MLC. But with all the convection near the MLC (27.7N/95.3W) it'll have a hard time organizing before all the convection moves ashore overnight. Doesn't appear to be a TS now, but it could produce a few small pockets of TS force winds over water as it moves inland before sunrise near Matagorda Bay (MLC). Buoy reports all around Erin are generally in the 10-15 kt range. Seas are only about 3 ft, indicating that winds aren't much higher anywhere out there. Just a few 25-30 kt winds in a squall or two.

Hopefully, Erin's MLC will be ashore tonight and we can start worrying about the real threat - Dean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, as this storm fades the headlights of Dean come into view. I have a feeling that we will have a very interesting time next week watching him barrel toward the western Caribbean and GOM. Erin will likely be in the far back of our minds by then.

[Starburst]

It's good that this storm isn't serious, but the problem that might be discounted is that Corpus Christi can't handle even a moderate amount of rainfall before it cripples the "city". The city will shut down for a week after this thing finishes dumping the rain.

That is the truth...Corpus Christi and surrounding area's are now having to boil all water used for food, drinking etc. before use due to fecal e-coli contamination in the water system due to flooding the past few weeks. Now we have to deal with this rain episode yuck!!!

[KatDaddy]

Hey Wxman57 I am afraid you are right about Dean. Kinda of uneasy feeling seeing where it is headed by the forecast models.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
700 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cape Verde]

Even if Erin hits at Matagorda Bay, it doesn't really concern me that much. Localized flooding shouldn't be minimized as a danger, but windstorm damage and coastal erosion should be fairly minimal.

Actually, my bigger concern is that this might make residents even more complacent about Dean. I'm not even suggesting Dean is a Texas storm. I leave that up to people here who understand weather dynamics far better than I ever will.

But I saw what happened with Rita which was a Cat 5 storm on Wednesday heading for Matagorda Bay. Millions fled and dozens died in the process. And the storm missed Houston for the most part.

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

[sealbach]

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

i disagree...there's a big difference between a minimal TS and a Cat 5 storm bearing down you...i think people would take notice, especially since with Dean, we have much more time to watch.

[Air Force Met]

Good burst of convection occurring under the MLC. The LLC is garbage. Recon is reporting N winds all the way down to 25N and 96.5W...which shows you how weak this low is. Given the LLC is to the NE...these winds should be WNW or westerly. So...we have winds blowing out of the LLC...divergent. Should have stayed with my first guess about this being a weak TS.

Great dynamics...just can't get stacked. Somethings going on...must investigate!

[sevenleft]

Good burst of convection occurring under the MLC. The LLC is garbage. Recon is reporting N winds all the way down to 25N and 96.5W...which shows you how weak this low is. Given the LLC is to the NE...these winds should be WNW or westerly. So...we have winds blowing out of the LLC...divergent. Should have stayed with my first guess about this being a weak TS.

Great dynamics...just can't get stacked. Somethings going on...must investigate!

I bet it's that 747 full of dynomat...

[Downdraft]

While no tropical cyclone should be written off till it's center is over land, Erin does look like she never stacked up to the hype so to speak. As for people being complacent should Dean come calling I'd give folks more credit than that. The only people that ever called Erin a big threat posted in here and there's a big difference between facing a weak tropical storm and a Cat 3 hurricane. Folks along the Gulf from Texas to Florida have the drill down quite well. As a matter of fact I'd trust someone's advice that's lived on the Gulf all there life anytime over someone that moved from Chicago to live along the Atlantic Ocean. Some of those old shrimp fisherman can tell you more from looking at the clouds than any model will. It's the city folks, politicians and others not to be named that need to learn how it works.

[Stratosphere747]

Good burst of convection occurring under the MLC. The LLC is garbage. Recon is reporting N winds all the way down to 25N and 96.5W...which shows you how weak this low is. Given the LLC is to the NE...these winds should be WNW or westerly. So...we have winds blowing out of the LLC...divergent. Should have stayed with my first guess about this being a weak TS.

Great dynamics...just can't get stacked. Somethings going on...must investigate!

I bet it's that 747 full of dynomat...

Descending from the stratosphere as we speak...

At least Erin will not look so pitiful for awhile. Yet another learning experience in the tropical world this Erin is.

[Brent]

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

i disagree...there's a big difference between a minimal TS and a Cat 5 storm bearing down you...i think people would take notice, especially since with Dean, we have much more time to watch.

Especially since Erin is just BARELY a TS, and was only upgraded 9 hours ago. Dean has already been around 2 days and will be around another 4-5 days before it's a serious threat, big difference.

[Cape Verde]

i disagree...there's a big difference between a minimal TS and a Cat 5 storm bearing down you...i think people would take notice, especially since with Dean, we have much more time to watch.

I don't disagree that there is a big difference. I'm just saying that we have millions of people who have NO intention of evacuating until it's too late. The last false alarm ensures that.

[Ptarmigan]

Erin not being a TS is meaningless. It will be a heavy rain and flood event. It is just as bad as wind because floods leave a nasty mess and you have to clean it up. No fun for sure.

[KatDaddy]

There will many studies on why Erin never developed much. Its been ready to take off for many hours but just did not happen. The upper level conditions have been ideal for development. Very interesting.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, just finished a 14hr shift working Dean mostly, but briefing on Erin a lot. It appears that Erin has a very broad and poorly-defined LLC to the south of a stronger MLC. But with all the convection near the MLC (27.7N/95.3W) it'll have a hard time organizing before all the convection moves ashore overnight. Doesn't appear to be a TS now, but it could produce a few small pockets of TS force winds over water as it moves inland before sunrise near Matagorda Bay (MLC). Buoy reports all around Erin are generally in the 10-15 kt range. Seas are only about 3 ft, indicating that winds aren't much higher anywhere out there. Just a few 25-30 kt winds in a squall or two.

Hopefully, Erin's MLC will be ashore tonight and we can start worrying about the real threat - Dean.

I am also uneasy about Dean too.

[Stratosphere747]

i disagree...there's a big difference between a minimal TS and a Cat 5 storm bearing down you...i think people would take notice, especially since with Dean, we have much more time to watch.

I don't disagree that there is a big difference. I'm just saying that we have millions of people who have NO intention of evacuating until it's too late. The last false alarm ensures that.

I don't want to get into the debate about who needs to evacuate, as we have been there and I have a much different view than some. The majority that are within the evac zone will still leave when asked, even after Rita. I sincerely hope that a substantial amount outside the evac zone stay, compared to last time.

Back on topic - One last little burst out of Erin gives it some look of respect.