CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[MGC]

Dizzy Dean's jog to the north has me a bit concerned today. Why? The trough over the Bahamas is digging pretty far south almost to Cuba. With Dean booking along at a fairly brisk clip, I'm wondering if the trough is going to have a greater effect than forecast. The trough is forecast to close off into an ULL and that appears to be occuring. This upper feature don't seem to be moving at all currently. Either way I'm wondering if this upper feature will provide a more northward pull on Dean as he is ahead of schedule. Would not be surprised that once the Gulfstream data is assimulated into the models that they adjust to a more northly track. Historically upper air forecasts have been real iffy until the gulfstream is flown. As I recall, the models had Katrina making landfall way east of where she did until the gulfstream's data got into the models.......MGC

[Wx_Warrior]

172

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174m.gif

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

Northern Mexico again...

Man that Allen and Gilbert analog is looking scarily right.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Close call to Texas.....500 trough over TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it will go in just south of Brownsville, isn't this the 3rd run in a row that shows this general area?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

And what's worry some is for Texas is what if Dean is a little farther north than what this is showing!

[Cape Verde]

The nice thing for Texans is that Erin shouldn't be too bad, although with the already saturated soil, local flashflooding could be a problem. They're not paying much attention to Dean.

There's still plenty of time, and we have folks here still suggesting it's a Florida storm. But anytime there's an official forecast which suggests that a major hurricane will enter the Carribbean, and possibly the Gulf, that gets my attention more than a poorly organized tropical storm which should give me isolated thunderstorms at worst.

[Wx_Warrior]

This scares me....But I do like the H building from the east....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If Dean were to cross Cuba then add more north to this track.

[msbee]

We are ever vigilant:
latest release from St. Maarten Government Information Service:

Tropical Storm Dean shifts more Southerly, but residents urged to continue to monitor the storms progress

GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Tuesday that Tropical Storm (TS) Dean continues to strengthen and that the residents of the Eastern Caribbean islands should continue to monitor the system as the storm moves towards the Eastern Caribbean island chain.

TS Dean based on Tuesday weather advisories has taken a more Southerly tracking which would keep it further away from St. Maarten as it makes its way through the Caribbean island chain some time on Friday or Saturday.

The Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness (ODMP) encourages residents to continue to monitor the progress of the tropical storm system which has been intensifying.

TS Dean will be closely monitored by the ODMP and if required, advisories will be issued in a timely manner to the media regarding what measures should be taken if the system was to change course and possibly pose a threat to the island of St. Maarten.

TS Erin has also formed making it the fifth named storm for the season and is located in the Gulf of Mexico off Texas.

As we approach the busy part of the hurricane season which runs from August 15 to October 15, residents are advised to make sure that they have already taken certain steps to protect life and property.

On Thursday evening August 16, a Government Information Service (GIS) Hurricane Special will be aired at 6.00pm on St. Maarten Cable TV Channel 15 entitled, “What You Need to Know.”

The first step of storm/hurricane preparedness is ensuring that you are adequately informed. For new residents, start by learning about storms/hurricanes, and how they can affect the island and how to prepare.

Learn the location of public shelters. Determine how safe is your area and inquire about flooding of low lying areas. Devise a hurricane preparedness plan. Decide from the onset where you will go if your house isn’t safe. Make sure the house you choose to shelter in is well constructed.

Persons living in dwellings, whose structure may not be of the quality of the house constructed out of concrete, should make alternative arrangements in the event of a hurricane threat.

If you own a boat, decide where to store it in the event of an emergency. Most importantly, ensure that your home and property insurance are up to date.

Trim deadwood from trees and cut back overhanging branches. Check and repair loose gutters around the roof and downspouts. Check and repair loose or damaged roofing; install hurricane roof straps if you do not already have them installed.

Check your hurricane shutters or plywood covers and the tools you need to install them. Practice installing them. Stock up on plywood if necessary. Get it measured, cut and labeled for each opening if you do not have shutters.

Stock up on hurricane supplies. Begin collecting enough non-perishable food, water, first aid, and other survival supplies to last each person for the first three days after the passing of a hurricane and up to a week. To diffuse cost, the items can be purchased a little at a time by picking up some extras with each trip to the supermarket.

Do not forget to stock up on any prescription medication your family may need, especially items for the young and elderly. During the hurricane season keep your vehicle’s gas tank more than half full at all times.

Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This scares me....But I do like the H building from the east....

But if Dean is a little more north it's mid to upper TX.

[tolakram]

Storms that passed within 50 nm of Dean's position in the past 50 years.

No Texas hits, very interesting. I suppose, looking at just the the odds, it's not likely for a storm to say basically on the same track for thousands of miles, which is what Dean would have to do.

[Brent]

Pacific is only down to F, we're not far behind at all.

[storms in NC]

Dizzy Dean's jog to the north has me a bit concerned today. Why? The trough over the Bahamas is digging pretty far south almost to Cuba. With Dean booking along at a fairly brisk clip, I'm wondering if the trough is going to have a greater effect than forecast. The trough is forecast to close off into an ULL and that appears to be occuring. This upper feature don't seem to be moving at all currently. Either way I'm wondering if this upper feature will provide a more northward pull on Dean as he is ahead of schedule. Would not be surprised that once the Gulfstream data is assimulated into the models that they adjust to a more northly track. Historically upper air forecasts have been real iffy until the gulfstream is flown. As I recall, the models had Katrina making landfall way east of where she did until the gulfstream's data got into the models.......MGC

Very nice post. but we will see what happens next week

[Steve]

>>..furthest west was Alabama

Actually Geroges 1998 made landfall further west than Fredrick '79. He made landfall in Harrison or Jackson County Mississippi (3 counties on the coast from west to east are Hancock, Harrison, Jackson).

Steve

[ronjon]

Close call to Texas.....500 trough over TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

Yeah that trough dipping down into north Texas is a little disturbing. I haven't seen that in the GFS 500 mb runs yet. We'll have to see how this evolves. If it deepens and the storm is just a little slower, look out western or central Gulf Coast.

[jasons2k]

The nice thing for Texans is that Erin shouldn't be too bad, although with the already saturated soil, local flashflooding could be a problem. They're not paying much attention to Dean.

There's still plenty of time, and we have folks here still suggesting it's a Florida storm. But anytime there's an official forecast which suggests that a major hurricane will enter the Carribbean, and possibly the Gulf, that gets my attention more than a poorly organized tropical storm which should give me isolated thunderstorms at worst.

Believe me, I'm paying more attention to Dean. Erin was a pathetic joke, or as Wxman57 said, a "decoy".

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Landfall, Brownsville. This will change and i'll bet the house on it. The more north motion in Dean even now will be very important.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 maps are posted. Like i said i hope the EURO is correct!!!