CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[artist]

seems a little bit further north in the islands to me - anyone else?

[Bgator]

So far through 60 hours...I see it going a bit faster, and the trof being a TAD stronger, pushing the high maybe a few degrees east. Otherwise all looks the same.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 60 Hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

[bucman1]

Is there any indications at all, of a possible weakness in the ridge of High Pressure off the

south east coast that may provide a more northerly or northeasterly track down the road or do you all believe this westerly track will continue all the way possibly to Texas?

[StormWarning1]

seems a little bit further north in the islands to me - anyone else?

yes, and the 60 hour 18z is weaker than the 66 hour 12z

[Bgator]

More of an ULL is near florida in this run too....but is Dean to far south?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I really do not like the sound of that jschlitz! I know it is way too early to really worry, but if that were to play out then TX and LA would not be in a very good position next week.

Especially considering all the flooding texas has had to deal with...
If that were to verify it could be horrific....not only for mex but
also the WGOM...

[Wx_Warrior]

By this weekend, that ULL just may be a MAJOR player...These runs keep pushing and pushing.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[Bgator]

KFDM do you see any differences?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Brent]

I have wondered for a couple of days if Dean would follow Erin... would not be a good situation.

[Opal storm]

Look at the ridge centered right over Pensacola, I think this run is going to take it in a similar direction as the last one.

[clfenwi]

Everyone from Texas to MS should be watching Dean the most.By the weekend the models should give us a reliable guidance for where he is headed.One thing is for sure-he will be a monster

How can you narrow it down to 500 miles of coastline when it's over a week away? This thing could still miss the GOM and hit Florida/East Coast.

Given its track trend,and history regarding storms that track this far south,its unusual for it to wind up a Florida hurricane.But you are right.It still doesn't rule out Florida

It's not really that far south given how east it is.

Consider that Hugo was very nearly in the same spot as Dean was at 2 PM today. (13.1 N 47.9W, while Hugo was at 13.20 N 47.8W). In the past 50 years the furthest west any storm has gotten out of this relative location is Alabama (eh, make that the second furthest west; Jackson County MS is the furthest west). The East Coast is the more common strike location.



Storms that passed within 50 nm of Dean's position in the past 50 years.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO and GFS differ on 500 pattern. By next week EURO has high builing into TX from the east, the GFS does not.

[Brent]

Look at the ridge centered right over Pensacola, I think this run is going to take it in a similar direction as the last one.

Yep...

[canegrl04]

Sorry for the mistake

[crazycajuncane]

I tell you it's going to be a rollercoaster ride all the way up through the weekend. I noticed a more WNW track with Dean setting up this afternoon. I guess it's just a wait and see game as Dean continues to strengthen.

Definitely looking good on radar this afternoon. Mean Dean is on the way.

[Bgator]

THis run is almost exactly the same....ho humm...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

84 HR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif