Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Cape Verde]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Did the LLC just pass this location? Still way the heck out there!

[teal61]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

Yep, its seems Erin might just be a warmup for the real deal next week.

[jasons2k]

I've marked on here where radar is picking-up the MLC:

[Brent]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

Oh yes... Erin will be all forgotten in a few days.

[Air Force Met]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

Yes it is...very sad indeed. I think the mid-level center has become detached from the low level center and that is one reason (besides diurnals) for the lack of deep convection. Recon places a center (notice a said "a center"...there may be more...) near 26.1/94.9 or so...at 1004 mb. Given that...it is probably the only center. But the radar and satellite shows a clear MLC near 27/95.0 and moving away from the LLC.

It needs a doctor.

[jasons2k]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

Oh yes... Erin will be all forgotten in a few days.

Not if it parks itself over the Hill County.

Remember, THE number one killer from Tropical Cyclones is NOT storm surge, it is inland flooding.

[Brent]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

Yes it is...very sad indeed. I think the mid-level center has become detached from the low level center and that is one reason (besides diurnals) for the lack of deep convection. Recon places a center (notice a said "a center"...there may be more...) near 26.1/94.9 or so...at 1004 mb. Given that...it is probably the only center. But the radar and satellite shows a clear MLC near 27/95.0 and moving away from the LLC.

It needs a doctor.

CLEAR!

Yeah, really, this storm looks sick.

[Jam151]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

[Brent]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

Ouch! I think it was just BARELY one earlier. This is making Barry look good.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

Oh yes... Erin will be all forgotten in a few days.

Not if it parks itself over the Hill County.

Remember, THE number one killer from Tropical Cyclones is NOT storm surge, it is inland flooding.

Yeah for anyone to say a weaker system like this will be "forgotten" is a bit naive when it comes to these systems. It's not going to take much to cause some quick flooding problems in the Austin/San Antonio area after this past June/July.

[RL3AO]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

They still have 4-6 more hours of flight time left. They will most likely find something higher.

[Extremeweatherguy]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

Actually, they have found FL winds to 40 knots so far, and with hours left to go they could find higher.

[sevenleft]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

Actually, they have found FL winds to 40 knots so far, and with hours left to go they could find higher.

Oh holy crap, 40 knots, everyone take cover!

[Houstonia]

Looks like we may need to be worrying a lot more about Dean than Erin. Yikes.

Oh yes... Erin will be all forgotten in a few days.

Not if it parks itself over the Hill County.

Remember, THE number one killer from Tropical Cyclones is NOT storm surge, it is inland flooding.

In the memory of those famous men at the Alamo's last stand and to cruelly alter their famous words...

"REMEMBER ALLISON!!!"

[Brent]

recon only found 37kt flight level winds this time...perhaps Erin isn't a TS anymore?

Actually, they have found FL winds to 40 knots so far, and with hours left to go they could find higher.

Oh holy crap, 40 knots, everyone take cover!

*hits panic button*

[jasons2k]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

Yes it is...very sad indeed. I think the mid-level center has become detached from the low level center and that is one reason (besides diurnals) for the lack of deep convection. Recon places a center (notice a said "a center"...there may be more...) near 26.1/94.9 or so...at 1004 mb. Given that...it is probably the only center. But the radar and satellite shows a clear MLC near 27/95.0 and moving away from the LLC.

It needs a doctor.

Yep, 24 hours ago I thought we'd be looking at a 60-70 mph TS by now. I PM'd David last night and told him I thought landfall as a high-end TS or Cat 1 @ Port Lavaca on Thursday AM. I think the location will be close but I really didn't think we'd still have a 1004mb blob out there.

[Jam151]

Oops missed the 40kt report...still TD, but we'll see if recon finds higher winds in the coming hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Probably don't have to worry about a hurricane, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ramps up overnight. Storms approaching the TX Gulf coast like to try and organize at the last minute.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Did the LLC just pass this location? Still way the heck out there!

Ummm...not sure maybe someone else will answer why the pressure is so low and falling again?