Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Normandy]

LOL Jschlitz,
Are you sure, I mean if it was up there then this might be the biggest blown forecast ever....bot saying it couldn't be there but wow if it is.

I took a look at the long range outta Brownsville and I *kinda* see what you see....any rotation at that range though would be midlevel

[Bailey1777]

Air Force Met could you give an opinion on this system as it sits now and what if any changes you see for it's short future.

[Air Force Met]

Take this with a grain of salt....it's JUST something to watch for.....but...

I've been studying the GR3 loop out of Brownsville and it looks like the center MAY, emphasize MAY, be coming into focus - and it's not where I (or the NHC) is expecting it....it looks like it's @ 27.2N and 93.8 west.

This location is much further north than the official location, so for now take this as just an observation and something I'll be watching to see if indeed the center is there or if it's just another transient swirl on the radar scope.

Looking at the vis loop...I think that is certainly where the mid level center is....maybe a bit west of your location...but close. I know the NHC is having a hard time finding the sfc center in the wind field using sfc obs since recon isn't in it.

[Brent]

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

[sevenleft]

Well Avila adjusted the track forecast to a more realistic one, with a WNW-NW track into the Corpus Christi-Port Aransas area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

New track has shifted much farther north...above Corpus Christi.

[jabman98]

So far nothing happening here (Houston). Nasty, sticky weather, with a waiting feeling in the air. All the insects are buzzing like mad out there. Not impressed by the rain I'm seeing on radar. Maybe it'll wait until late tonight to show up.

[whereverwx]

This is a nice image of Erin as she approaches landfall.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NHC is still to far south on their track of Erin.

[Bailey1777]

Recon should tell the tale.

[Stratosphere747]

Warning area was not much of a shift north. A bit surprised they didn't at least include Galveston in a watch, mainly for the west end. May tell you how poorly defined this is.

[jabman98]

Warning area was not much of a shift north. A bit surprised they didn't at least include Galveston in a watch, mainly for the west end. May tell you how poorly defined this is.

West end of Galveston is so vulnerable. Even a small increase in waves or slight storm surge can cause significant beach erosion and potential loss of property.

[ROCK]

Warning area was not much of a shift north. A bit surprised they didn't at least include Galveston in a watch, mainly for the west end. May tell you how poorly defined this is.

West end of Galveston is so vulnerable. Even a small increase in waves or slight storm surge can cause significant beach erosion and potential loss of property.

yes, they are. I am glad I told my family to go down there today and move some stuff inside....


Nice rain band came through Webster around 1:30 today.....gusting winds... I gage at maybe 20mph gusts to 30.....good amount of rain also......

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Stratosphere747]

Warning area was not much of a shift north. A bit surprised they didn't at least include Galveston in a watch, mainly for the west end. May tell you how poorly defined this is.

West end of Galveston is so vulnerable. Even a small increase in waves or slight storm surge can cause significant beach erosion and potential loss of property.

I shake my head when I drive through there now. It's astonishing the development Pointe West is doing. If anyone has not been down there in the last year, you would never recognize the Pass area.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch issued for SE TX (W of I-45)

TS Warning remains in effect from Freeport southward.

Discussion:

Per NHC/NWS call center will be relocated slightly further north at the 400pm adv package. Satellite images continue to show most of the heavy rainfall and gusty winds NE of the center of circulation. Strong squall that moved through SE Harris about 1.5 hours ago resulted in power outages in Seabrook. Erin should continue to move off to the WNW and cross the coast very near KCRP early Thursday morning as a minimal tropical storm.

Impacts:

Numerous feeder bands will continue to advance towards the coast increasing in frequency and intensity tonight in early Thursday. Onset of more concentrated heavy rains should begin around 300am Thursday morning and last through much of the day Thursday. Still expect widespread 1-3” metro Houston with isolated 5” possible. SW of the Brazos River expect widespread 3-5” with isolated amounts upwards of 10”. Some of the latest guidance suggests the system may slow as it moves inland prolonging the heavy rainfall event into early Friday. Given forecast PWS of 2.5+ inches over the Gulf streaming toward the coast…would expect excessive hourly rainfall rates up to 4.0” in the heavy thunderstorms.

No change to tides/seas/winds needed at this time as most of the impacts will be felt SW of our area. May need to bump winds up at tad in the TS warning area with gust at or above 40mph in squalls. Seas really do not have much time to ramp up much more than 6-8 feet and tides should be held around 1-2 feet above normal.

Extended:

Very worrying model guidance out from 12Z showing remains of Erin becoming a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge over TX. Dean comes roaring through the Caribbean and break in sub-tropical high over TX allows the start of a poleward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. No need to sound any alarms just yet as we are still talking over 7 days out, however this hurricane is going to come very quickly and likely to be very strong by late this weekend. Guidance and NHC continue to indicate the potential for a very dangerous hurricane to be aimed at the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week.

UPDATE:

At 400pm the TS Warning is extended up the TX coast to San Luis Pass.

Erin is moving toward the NW and this motion should continue for the next 24 hour until landfall.

Another strong feeder band is approaching Harris County from the E and may produce winds up to 40mph.

No other changes.

Latest update on Dean now forecasting cat 4 (130mph) in W Caribbean Monday afternoon just SW of Cayman Islands. Very fast west track through the Caribbean is expected. Close watch is needed on Dean as it could enter the Gulf as a cat 4 early next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

--nvm--

[Brent]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

Yep... looks like just a lot of RAIN.

[Tireman4]

Agreed.