Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[crazycajuncane]

We've had a feeder ban from Erin come in just a bit ago. It's helping to cool off the multiple 100 degree days we've had. I think we can thank Erin for that much!

I was also looking at the maps and see a slight shift north in the forecast track coming, but not south like I was reading earlier this morning. C.C. still looks like a good spot for Erin to dock.

[Wren]

I'm new at this, but am picking up a center at N26.8 W94.2 Is this correct?

[thetraveler]

I checked out the interactive radar from the weather channel and it looks like it is moving almost due west towards Brownville.

[lrak]

Definitely an illusion, its still to far off for the radar.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just got a nice gust from a small cell from Erin here in Beaumont!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I checked out the interactive radar from the weather channel and it looks like it is moving almost due west towards Brownville.

They showed an even better radar on the hurricane update 20 minutes ago that had the center being pretty well offshore east of the coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. It looked to be moving WNW toward, or just north of, Corpus.

[Furious George]

With no real changes expected to the steering, you can almost extrapolate this storm inland (see loop). If I was in Matagorda Bay, I'd be ready for some serious rain, as that area appears to be in prime location for the Northern side of the storm. I think in Houston, it's going to depend on the size of the storm at the time, as it seems to have compacted a tad, but that could change.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Downdraft]

Anyone remember Georges? I believe AccuWeather talked Galveston into evacuating and the storm went into Mexico. One of their more famous "oops" that they don't seem to remember.

I moved down here during Georges. I don't recall anything about an evacuation here. But I got caught up in all the evacuation traffic and booked hotels from Alabama and into Louisiana. I do know a lot of people were still talking about Frances and the damage she caused at the Kemah Boardwalk.

You know I think I made a mistake. The more I think about it now I think it was Gilbert.

[Downdraft]

Anyone remember Georges? I believe AccuWeather talked Galveston into evacuating and the storm went into Mexico. One of their more famous "oops" that they don't seem to remember.

That was Gilbert, and I have talked to Joe Bastardi about that. A NOVA special from about ten years ago gave AccuWeather a bad rap about that. IIRC, Joe told me that Galveston was advised that Gilbert could possibly get that far North, but that was never the AW forecast, and the city jumped the gun and ordered evacuations. Joe wanted to rebut that NOVA report, suspecting some NOAA/NHC people fed them bad propaganda, but Dr. Sobel advised it would be best to just drop it.

I wasn't really trying to rap AW the point is people are going nuts trying to figure out where Dean will goand now we have one a day out and we still can't pinpoint it exactly. Goes to show ole Mother Nature does what ole Mother Nature wants to.

[vaffie]

It looks like it's beginning to feel some of the diurnal minimum effects with cloud top warming. In about 7 or 8 hours watch this begin to reverse. As it begins to approach the coast, it may strengthen somewhat--something which has often been documented for landfalling storms--as a result of an increase in convection due to upward air movement--or it might weaken somewhat due to surface wind interference. Since the Texas coastline lacks hills as such and is as tropical right now as the water, this will be minimal and we may expect to see an increase in convection and a last-minute pressure fall. Anyway, I'm just randomly speculating, but my guess is that it will be a much stronger storm in the morning--perhaps up to 60 or so knots.

[Cellrock]

With no real changes expected to the steering, you can almost extrapolate this storm inland (see loop). If I was in Matagorda Bay, I'd be ready for some serious rain, as that area appears to be in prime location for the Northern side of the storm. I think in Houston, it's going to depend on the size of the storm at the time, as it seems to have compacted a tad, but that could change.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

on the loop,look like it is moving more west. kinda looks like its getting tighter

[JenBayles]

I'm thinking you're right - it was Gilbert. 1988 I believe? That was one of those huge storms that just filled up the Gulf, and I still remember the panic-buying that went on in Houston surrounding that storm. Even though Galveston only got some high, messy surf and tides, the island experienced some pretty bad erosion on the west end. My husband and I were in our weekend camping and fishing on the beach mode back then, and we pretty much lost most of the beach at our favorite spot. A year later, we went to Cozumel, and the storm damage was still very much in evidence. Just horrible, and no money to properly repair more than the essentials.

A similar situation to Gilbert occurred with Allen in 1980. Another huge storm that filled the Gulf, everyone in a panic, and it went on to somewhere down the coast from Brownsville as I recall.

[Normandy]

This storm is not moving NW by any stretch of the imagination. Its moving westward into the lower TX coast at this moment. Barring center reformations it should come ashore well south of Matagorda.

[Houstonia]

Gusting to 21 mph (out of the sse) here in beautiful Northwest Harris County!

Temps have dropped to a frigid 91 degrees!!

I see a squall line down towards Galveston...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This storm is not moving NW by any stretch of the imagination. Its moving westward into the lower TX coast at this moment. Barring center reformations it should come ashore well south of Matagorda.

Yes, south of Matagorda but likely north of the 11am NHC track. BTW, I would say this is moving WNW,not W, at the moment. This movement is confirmed by watching a visible loop and by the NHC 1pm update.

good site for visible loops: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[Cape Verde]

We don't really need the rain in Houston, but we're going to get some for sure regardless if the center hits south of Corpus Christi. The first line band is now sweeping through town (a thin band), and more is coming into our southern suburbs.

Anything to break that 103 degree heat we've been having. Could be a pretty stormy night.

[Normandy]

EWG,
storm motion is clear on radar and the center is in range of long range, its moving very close to due west imo...maybe a hair north of due west.

[Portastorm]

I'm thinking you're right - it was Gilbert. 1988 I believe? That was one of those huge storms that just filled up the Gulf, and I still remember the panic-buying that went on in Houston surrounding that storm. Even though Galveston only got some high, messy surf and tides, the island experienced some pretty bad erosion on the west end. My husband and I were in our weekend camping and fishing on the beach mode back then, and we pretty much lost most of the beach at our favorite spot. A year later, we went to Cozumel, and the storm damage was still very much in evidence. Just horrible, and no money to properly repair more than the essentials.

A similar situation to Gilbert occurred with Allen in 1980. Another huge storm that filled the Gulf, everyone in a panic, and it went on to somewhere down the coast from Brownsville as I recall.

Jen -- I don't want to tie up the Erin thread but there was a semi-valid reason for the panic. The official NHC forecast predicted that Gilbert would make a turn for Texas and to the northwest. That turn never happened. Gilbert stayed on a mostly westbound course and hit Mexico head on.

Forecasters were predicting even hurricane conditions here in Austin as the storm was progged to move inland right over us. I think we ended up getting 3 drops of rain and some clouds!

[Brent]

The size of Gilbert was amazing... I know when it peaked at 888 in the Caribbean the FL Keys were having TS force winds!!!!

[Normandy]

In fact, looking at visibles it *appears* the center is more to the W the before...it looks exposed on the western side about to head inland.