Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Ptarmigan]

We got a taste of Erin early this morning with heavy rain and thunder, plenty of it. It woke me up. I expect heavy rain from Erin.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[Stormtrack03]

Where is the vortex message if it is now Erin?

[Stormcenter]

Looks nice.

There is also a definite north of west motion on the satellite loop right now. Seems to be moving more WNW than the NHC 10am track had it moving.

Compared to what motion before?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I watched a loop of Erin from early this morning until now and Erin is definitely moving in more of a north of west direction than the forecast track indicates. If that path continues, I just do not see any way this hits the current projected landfall spot by the NHC. It would basically have to move due west starting now for that to happen (which it isn't).

go here and judge for yourself: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

I still think the landfall spot will wind up closer to Corpus..probably just north of there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks nice.

There is also a definite north of west motion on the satellite loop right now. Seems to be moving more WNW than the NHC 10am track had it moving.

Compared to what motion before?

Well the NHC says it has a WNW motion, but if you look at their forecast track ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents ) it looks to be just barely WNW..and is basically nearly west. Based on the Satellite loop though, I think there is more of a northward component than what this track shows.

[Johnny]

The surf was totally flat in Galveston this morning but is now getting kicked up by the approaching feeder band. Check out the surf cams along the seawall.

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

[mgpetre]

I don't think it's going to have a real well-defined center as it makes landfall, but I just don't see this hitting anywhere close to Brownsville, I personally have the feeling it will be somewhere north of Corpus... just a prediction (add disclaimer here:)

Great... Long Range radar on the NWS site for both Corpus and Brnsville are down... ugh... not a good time to not have those, we could have finally pinpointed a center.

[Johnny]

[srainhoutx]

Where is the vortex message if it is now Erin?

000
URNT12 KNHC 151518
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1444Z
B. 25 DEG 37 MIN N
93 DEG 24 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 045 DEG 35 NM
F. 119 DEG 44 KT
G. 047 DEG 36 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 25 C/483 M
J. 27 C/483 M
K. 24 C/29 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 13/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0205A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 1433Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET

[HouTXmetro]

Obviously the NHC knows something we don't. Because I just don't understand the W track into Brownsville. Secondly I thought the High was retogradin East? I guess not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Obviously the NHC knows something we don't. Because I just don't understand the W track into Brownsville. Secondly I thought the High was retogradin East? I guess not.

Well at 5am it was still corpus and then at 11am it was the new track to north of Brownsville. I think they are still having a hard time too. I wouldn't be surprised to see future track shifts at 5pm and 11pm depending on the movement of this thing over the next few hours. Currently it would have to move almost due west for their 10am track to play out. It doesn't look like that is happening at this time.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Feeder bands coming in now.

[tailgater]

I don't think it's going to have a real well-defined center as it makes landfall, but I just don't see this hitting anywhere close to Brownsville, I personally have the feeling it will be somewhere north of Corpus... just a prediction (add disclaimer here:)

I agree and disagree, this system has been an either an elongated low or trough for two days now, so the actual center won't really matter. South of the border or Freeport, makes little difference, the most weather will be where a band of T-storms comes on shore and the rain.

[Steve]

retrograding = west in our latitudes



Steve

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-wv.html

guess its still following the ULL over El Paso HouTxMetro.

[TexWx]

hmmm.

[Tireman4]

I second that emotion. What I mean that is interesting on the track.

[JenBayles]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (likely) but didn't Alicia pull this kind of bait and switch? Supposed to go to Brownsville and in the middle of the night decided to blow north on into Houston?

[mf_dolphin]

That jump north may be more of a center relocation as opposed to a real track north.