Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[lrak]

Please refrain from chatter.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA



It case anyone missed the upgrade.

[Diva]

Why did the official forecast track take such a southerly shift? Hope we don't miss out on some rain to cool us off.

[Steve]

>>Please refrain from chatter.

Please see your other post, "Hello! Anyone home?? Important!!!

Dean hit its last point unless they just drew it on.

Steve

[lrak]

>>Please refrain from chatter.

Please see your other post, "Hello! Anyone home?? Important!!!

Dean hit its last point unless they just drew it on.

Steve

I live in CC TX and a little smile during stressful times is not necessary, but for me its enjoyable to smile after reading a nice joke. Believe me I know this is important. Just skip over the joke or is one post going to crash the server?

Plus I broke a 100 post in no time Whoot!

Thanks

[Tireman4]

I believe I am correct in saying that this is the outer rain band of Erin



http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... large=true

Correct me if I am wrong

[lrak]

Looks like it to me, but this may be chatter.

[miamicanes177]

From the NHC:
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1230 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 330 PM CDT.

Does anyone know why they have changed the time of the update?

[Steve]

N/P lrak. You are a good poster IMHO. I might have been a hair south with my Sunday Night/Monday am prediction (unsearchable at present), but there still is a chance at some intensification in the next 24-28 hours as it begins to interact with land. I, as did some of the pro mets, cautioned of the 2003 Claudette effect. I still don't see anything more than a strong tropical storm and a bunch of rain for points north of landfall, but you can't ever be sure.

Tireman,

Yes, I think you are correct the way it's spiraling down on the coast. It's not a particularly cohesive band, but there are some embedded rain and possibly thunderstorm cells. It's kind of hazy here in SE LA today compliments of Erin. Chances are, it's only going to get to 94 or 95 rather than the 99's we've been seeing.

Steve

[lrak]

I am worried Steve.

Karl....anyone get it.

My nickname is not Iraq, like the Kerry thing during 2004.

[StormWarning1]

From the NHC:
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1230 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 330 PM CDT.

Does anyone know why they have changed the time of the update?

They list the time of the updates based on the time zone the storm is in. Thats why CDT for Erin.

[lrak]

Tireman, look at this long range loop.

Thats a rainband

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 11&loop=no

[Sanibel]

x-y-no:

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[miamicanes177]

From the NHC:
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1230 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 330 PM CDT.

Does anyone know why they have changed the time of the update?

They list the time of the updates based on the time zone the storm is in. Thats why CDT for Erin.

I know but I thought it was normally issued at 1pm CDT and 4pm CDT?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I believe I am correct in saying that this is the outer rain band of Erin



http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... large=true

Correct me if I am wrong

yes, it is. According to TWC that band may be packing gusts to tropical storm force.

[southerngale]

From the NHC:
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1230 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 330 PM CDT.

Does anyone know why they have changed the time of the update?

They list the time of the updates based on the time zone the storm is in. Thats why CDT for Erin.

But it's normally 1:00 PM CDT and 4:00 PM CDT, etc. That's why they're asking.

[Stratosphere747]

No that advisory package is earlier than normal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why did the official forecast track take such a southerly shift? Hope we don't miss out on some rain to cool us off.

I doubt it will go that far south. The models and motion seem to still indicate a landfall closer to their earlier path. However, the difference of a few miles does not make much of a difference with this storm...the outer rain bands will likely still reach the upper TX coast either way.

The NHC is on the southern side of the model landfall predictions = http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[HURAKAN]

First time two tropical storms in the GTWO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks nice.

There is also a definite north of west motion on the satellite loop right now. Seems to be moving more WNW than the NHC 10am track had it moving.