Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[jabman98]

maybe there is not going to be one and they could wait until 1 p.m.

That's what I was thinking. Isn't it kind of unusal for them to issue a special statement so soon after a regularly scheduled update?

[Derek Ortt]

depends on the forecaster

[whereverwx]

This isn't a good sign of further strengthening. Look at the northeast outflow boundary.

[CronkPSU]

maybe there is not going to be one and they could wait until 1 p.m.

That's what I was thinking. Isn't it kind of unusal for them to issue a special statement so soon after a regularly scheduled update?

not that unusual if recon confirms it, Charley got a specail update shortly after a regularly scheduled update, at least one other did in 05 as well

[Sanibel]

I think it's still engrained in the trough.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Calamity could you explain what's wrong with the NE Outflow Boundary for me?

[RattleMan]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

there is more inflow though now than outflow, so this should intensify

[Stratosphere747]

Upgrade forthcoming.

Statement as of 10:15 am CDT on August 15, 2007
data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Five in the Gulf of Mexico has reached tropical storm
strength and is now Tropical Storm Erin. A special advisory will
be issued within the hour.

[lrak]

New TS on NHC website.

[cheezyWXguy]

This isn't a good sign of further strengthening. Look at the northeast outflow boundary.

Probably not a huge problem for the storm, as it probably got shot out of the convection on the east side, I think, since convection is still firing over the center

[Sanibel]

Just from the dvorak we should see TS before landfall. (Don't forget the SST's under there)


Edit: Bingo!

[whereverwx]

Calamity could you explain what's wrong with the NE Outflow Boundary for me?

Well, outflow boundaries develop from dying thunderstorms, and it is moving away from the low.

[jabman98]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 151516
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1015 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Wow, that was fast. Guess they felt the data was good enough for an update.

[jasons2k]

Coming into view now...

[Sanibel]

Watch this one if it contracts again.

[Brent]

Good Morning Erin. Be a nice little girl.

[lrak]

Good Morning Erin. Be a nice little girl.

never met one. Except my wife.

[Steve]

>>Well, outflow boundaries develop from dying thunderstorms, and it is moving away from the low.

Common misconception that it signals a death blow (just like when shear is present). Weaker storms can have storm bands or rain bands that die out as they approach the coastline. It's outflow stuff and doesn't really mean something one way or the other as best as I've been able to determine in my years of watching storms. Some people are insistant about it, I've never seen it verify except when waves aren't developing. JMO

Steve

[Sanibel]

Please refrain from chatter.