Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[cpdaman]

u beat me 42knots peak 44 knots at flight level is that correct destruction

[Portastorm]

With much of the actual "weather" remaining north and east of the so-called center ... I'm getting more worried that we are going to get absolutely hammered here in south central Texas with torrential rainfall!

[Extremeweatherguy]

at the 10 adv. the track shifted south... hmmm?

yeah, I noticed that too. Makes no sense since all the models in the range of the center seem to show it moving further north...

[DESTRUCTION5]

u beat me 42knots peak 44 knots at flight level is that correct destruction

yes Surface 36Kts = Erin

[Cyclone1]

If it is Erin, an update should be issued within minutes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, if they don't update then I will be shocked. They were calling Barry a Tropical storm with 44 knot FL winds, so they should do the same here too.

[Stratosphere747]

Recon will be out there as long as possible with a system like this. It does show indications that it's trying to develop though we have been saying that for almost 24hrs. I can envision them keeping it status quo and issuing a STS if it continues to come together.

Patience. If it's legit, they will issue one.

[Cyclone1]

They probably won't issue it until after 10. Right now, it's only 9:56.

Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane at 11:04 by an update.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like Recon is now trying to head back to the center to check out it. Latest data set has winds dropping down to 4 knots (and pressure to 1004.8mb) as they approach.

[Cyclone1]

Looks like they're trying to alter something at the NHC website, for a brief moment, Dean's Public Advisory 9 was switched to Public Advisory 0.

[Aric Dunn]

this buoy is very near the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Extremeweatherguy]

this buoy is very near the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Its further west than the center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still no NHC update. Hopefully it comes out soon.

[skysummit]

Still no NHC update. Hopefully it comes out soon.

??? Sure it came out....unorganized, but likely to strenghten later today.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT5

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still no NHC update. Hopefully it comes out soon.

??? Sure it came out....unorganized, but likely to strenghten later today.

No, I mean a special update after they found the 44 knot FL winds to upgrade this to a tropical storm.

[chadtm80]

[Aric Dunn]

this buoy is very near the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Its further west than the center.

well of course.. did not mean it was at the center.. duh! just meant its the closest buoy !!

[Derek Ortt]

maybe there is not going to be one and they could wait until 1 p.m.

[Aric Dunn]

Still no NHC update. Hopefully it comes out soon.

??? Sure it came out....unorganized, but likely to strenghten later today.

No, I mean a special update after they found the 44 knot FL winds to upgrade this to a tropical storm.

44kts flight level does not make it TS

[skysummit]

Still no NHC update. Hopefully it comes out soon.

??? Sure it came out....unorganized, but likely to strenghten later today.

No, I mean a special update after they found the 44 knot FL winds to upgrade this to a tropical storm.

Ahhh... I see. I'll shut up now then. LOL I haven't been paying attention to the recon thread.