Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[A1A]

Not very active in the Tropical Analysis forum. I guess it's a little more fun for the pro-mets here!

[HURAKAN]

RECON going north now to get ready for a second pass.

First pass Max. FL. winds: 31 knots

[jabman98]

Major thunderstorm with wind, lightning and crashing thunder woke me up around 4:00 a.m. this morning - just north of downtown Houston. From radar it looked like one of the waaaay outer bands of TD5. East to west movement across the screen. 0.7 inches of rain in about 20 minutes.

We've had a week to 10 days off from the rain, but other than that we're seriously saturated here. We've had two street floodings and neighborhood floodings this summer, which we didn't even have with Allison. I'm not too worried about the wind (although the huge tree on our neighbor's property that grows over our house always makes me nervous), but the rain could definitely be an issue.

[weunice]

We had a similar storm yesterday which I was very thankful for. It was well over 90 degrees at the time it came through. Fast moving east to west and the storm was relatively north of the storm.

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 24.9N 93.2W T2.0/2.0 05L

Dvorak's estimate stays the same. Nonetheless, based on the RECON 24.9N is a little far to the north.

[Rainband]

This thing is not well organized...broad low(s) but Lots of rain and yall don't need that. Stay safe and try to stay dry.

[tailgater]

Latest Quickscat, lets see how RECON matches up with this one.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?420,203

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

Visually this system does look impressive.
It still has a decent bit of water to travel over
so I wouldn't sell it short just yet.

[Rainband]

Visually this system does look impressive.
It still has a decent bit of water to travel over
so I wouldn't sell it short just yet.

Just going with what the NHC said.

[Johnny]

It does like nice on vis. satellite but that's about it. So much for a rapid developer as previously thought. More rain on the way for South, Texas.

[whereverwx]

It's a little "bumpy" up there.

[jasons2k]

I don't think I've ever seen such a system that looked so organized and symmetrical on satellite, and yet the surface obs had the center so displaced from the convection. This one has me scratching me head for sure.

[xironman]

This is the lowest pressure so far right?

13:33:00 25.35N 93.25W 956.8 mb 437 m 1005.1 mb From 272° (W) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -

[HURAKAN]

I don't think I've ever seen such a system that looked so organized and symmetrical on satellite, and yet the surface obs had the center so displaced from the convection. This one has me scratching me head for sure.

It's really puzzling. I still think we can squeeze Erin out of this.

[vaffie]

Recon seems to be finding that the center has reformed to the north, closer to the middle of the blob at 25.37N 93.28W. That's also where the lowest pressure is and where the winds change as you pass through.

956.9 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 312° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) 25.7°C
(~ 78.3°F) 23.7°C
(~ 74.7°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recon seems to be finding that the center has reformed to the north, closer to the middle of the blob at 25.37N 93.28W. That's also where the lowest pressure is and where the winds change as you pass through.

956.9 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 312° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) 25.7°C
(~ 78.3°F) 23.7°C
(~ 74.7°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph)

That would make sense.

[xironman]

The reforming center would be more in line with the Quickscat posted earlier

[skysummit]

Wait....956mb???

[WmE]

Wait....956mb???

Flight level !