CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[caribepr]

Living on islands, sheesh! I have noticed a lot of comments in the models and discussions threads of many expressing concern and good wishes for those of us in these fragile places and it is really the first year I've read so many - so I just wanted to acknowledge that with thanks.
Preparations are going on as we speak. I know locals (like your Dad!) sometimes take a little more laid back attitude - and not always for the good in the long run. But knowing quite a few here who lost everything to Hugo (along with loss in other, more *minor* storms) I can only give the respect they deserve and do my bit to give heads up on what might be going on, encourage being as prepared as possible (rebuilds here are done according to the wallet factor. A LOT of concrete homes replaced wooden homes - and I'm talking plywood here - but quite a few of the latter remain or replaced.
The best part is, family is hugely strong here...and if the worst happens, everyone will band together just as they have done for generations. It's sort of soothing to me!
Watch and wait, be prepared and hope for the best.
Thanks to S2K for all the info, even if sometimes watching the boards too closely makes us crazier than we already are

[knotimpaired]

MJ,

LOL.

Is that not the truth?

Excuse me, Valium refill please.

K

[robbielyn]

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets

Derek,
I am sorry that you have had a bad experience with some TV mets. I can tell you from experience that often the "alarmist" nature doesn't come from the met himself but from consultants or the newsroom. We have been talking preparedness since May. We try to drive that point that you should be prepared prior to the season even beginning. I have made point after point, to NOT raise the surrender flag for FLorida. As you know, there is WAY too much uncertainty this far out. Truth is, our viewers should be aware that a system is out there, but not worry or even be concerned. I like to think that my viewers trust my judgement and when I mention Florida as a concern, then they should really begin preparations.

Admittedly, for many in my field, it has become an alarmist game, but I would go back to my original point in saying it is usually driven by the non weather folks in the TV news business.


Edited to add: yesterday I mentioned how far it was from Tampa to further the ppoint that we NEED NOT WORRY as it is too far away.

Josh, I am one of your viewers, and I have never ever heard this particular station overhype a storm. I have heard the news anchors maybe do this some but when the actual mets come on it seems you all are pretty honest and responsible. You all have to be because we listen to pro mets to give us accurate info, but the station wants to make money they are going to bait us to get us to tune in and it works. I think it is super important for viewers to really educate themselves on these storms and how they work. Compared to true weather enthusiasts I am a novice but I know enough about the storms to be able to decipher what is being truly said and not panic. It is good to be prepared and really that is the best thing. If one is truly prepared, has a evac route and has supplies early on, then lives can be saved even if property at times cannot. Good job Baynews9.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 44.2W AT 15/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR BANDING IS BEGINNING BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10.5N-13N BETWEEN 42.5W-45W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER
BRISKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. AS
DEAN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES IT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

[sweetpea]

My father is VERY laid back. My husband says if he was any more mellow he would be dead. It is a family joke, my uncle that lives by him just built a new house about 4 years ago that is concrete, my fathers is also. I just don't want him to be alone during the storm, so I am trying to get him to go to one of the families houses. When I talked to him yesterday he was at the bakery getting cakes. When I told my husband last night he laughed and said are you really surprised???? I hope everyone on all the islands, get prepared and stay safe. Thank god for S2K and all the info you can get on here.
Debbie

[BatzVI]

Is there anything to suggest that this could pull further north in the future.....I'm just remembering Marilyn and how it took a northern turn and did some major damage here in St. Thomas.....

To all the down islands folks.....our thoughts are with you....

[HURAKAN]

This is from a few hours ago and shows winds of 50 and 55 knots in the northern side of Dean.

[tracyswfla]

My thoughts with the Islands as well. I wish there was more we could do for you. Lets pray for safety and a right hook out into the open Atlantic!!

[punkyg]

This is from a few hours ago and shows winds of 50 and 55 knots in the northern side of Dean.

Man i see some 60kts near the center on that image. i really feel this thing is gonna strengthin on the 11am update.

[caribepr]

yea, but they will never send him to any of the islands, which are first in the line of fire.

Dang, msbee, ya think? And here we were getting the airport all ready to welcome him!

[knotimpaired]

Thank you for all of your responses.

Yes, we do have challenges that the US do not have and I am worried that our interests, basically our lives do not get set aside. We have families, friends, our lives are in the islands.

I just want to say that all of the Dean threads seem to be pushing the cart before the horse.

Cannot we all gather together here in the basin, ask for expert advice without the armchair mets to know exactly what is going on and where?

Vieques, Salinas, San Juan, Ponce, Isabella, all of Puerto Rico. But let us not forget

Culebra
Us Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
St Croix to the south
Angilla
Saba
St Kitts
Nevis
Antigua
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Martinique
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Off to east Barbados
Grenada
Trinidad and Tobago

I could probably name every cay on each island and I am sure I missed a few. My father was a Geography Professer at one of the major US universities. I knew every inch of the caribbean since I was a child.

I grew to love them before I came to live here but I know for a fact, this is my home and only home matters.

So please let us get back to basics and worry about the horse for now. 8 days out we can worry about the cart.

Please, that is all I ask.

I do not know if you realize when you live on a island a a hurricane strikes, you cannot run away.

It must be nice to have I-95 running in both directions getting you out..

On my island we do not have a traffic light.

How do you think we feel when we depend on a ferry that probably not run for days? That is our food?

Oops forgot, you always have Publix. Sorry.

YOU SEEM TO HAVE FORGOTTEN THAT SOME OF US ARE KATRINA VETERANS!

Yes and I do understand that you went through a horrible time and still do.

But do you understand that our island lost 80% of their homes in Hugo and the average income in todays dollar is about 6k? At least there may be hope up there. If we get a direct hit, god help us.

[HurryKane]

Knot, I understand your frustration, and here's some friendly advice: you catch more flies with honey.

It's only natural that everyone in coastal areas will be concerned about themselves....just as it is an example of the greatness in people that they will be concerned about others, too. The two are not mutually exclusive. We're all concerned for anyone in the path of a storm.

[Janie2006]

Dean is showing better organization and gathering steam. 55 knots translates to a little over 63 mph.

Edited to add: As a reminder, you can easily translate knots to miles per hour. Just multiply X knots by 1.15

[tgenius]

Stronger storm can make its own rules alot of times too...

[HURAKAN]

Such a small cyclone. When condition get better, look for RI.

[deltadog03]

well, the Euro completly floped....

[punkyg]

I wanna know am i the only one seeing the 60kts with this storm?

[Janie2006]

I wanna know am i the only one seeing the 60kts with this storm?

Yes, Punky. You need glasses.

I'm joking, of course. Yes, I see some 60 kt barbs as well.

[vaffie]

I wanna know am i the only one seeing the 60kts with this storm?

no. it's obviously there. the winds at the center may be higher too.

[canegrl04]

I noticed the models are trending into the GOM now.Based on current movement,and TD 5,this looks very much a scenario.I am getting scared,as TWC says Dean could be major by the Carribean