CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[punkyg]

Dean looks healthy this morning. No reason to think it will not become a strong player in the next few days. I don't like the way this is starting to pan out, although it's important to remember that Dean is still a long way from the CONUS.

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

I really don't think that, but hey what do i know. Dean could come here, but how will it curve north? 1. is the ridge steering it toward us? 2. is the weakness in the ridge suppose to lift dean up, but then close up and dean is at our level and starts its westward track or 3.
will it do the charley move on us and come out of the gulf?

I want number 2.! joke. guys keep the humor in this don't turn too serious or you'll never have fun.

[Meso]

Rapid Deepening?

[Derek Ortt]

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets

[Aquawind]

per the morning TWD..tad early..

TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 44.2W AT 15/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR BANDING IS BEGINNING BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10.5N-13N BETWEEN 42.5W-45W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER
BRISKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. AS
DEAN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES IT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

[KWT]

06z is nearly the same as the 0z ECM as it happens, given these are very close and the UKMO/GFDL look like they are also west runners I think we may some general agreement. They don't quite agree on the track through the Caribbean but they are qite close when you consider how far out it is.

[WmE]

Wow, what a tiny system.

[punkyg]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Yes theres a burst of convection on the northwest side of the center, but man Dean center is freaking me out! oh it looks like a eye forming and yes i'm keep saying that.
right now with Dean's apearance it looks better then yesterday, but will it look even better tonight?

[linkerweather]

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets

Derek,
I am sorry that you have had a bad experience with some TV mets. I can tell you from experience that often the "alarmist" nature doesn't come from the met himself but from consultants or the newsroom. We have been talking preparedness since May. We try to drive that point that you should be prepared prior to the season even beginning. I have made point after point, to NOT raise the surrender flag for FLorida. As you know, there is WAY too much uncertainty this far out. Truth is, our viewers should be aware that a system is out there, but not worry or even be concerned. I like to think that my viewers trust my judgement and when I mention Florida as a concern, then they should really begin preparations.

Admittedly, for many in my field, it has become an alarmist game, but I would go back to my original point in saying it is usually driven by the non weather folks in the TV news business.


Edited to add: yesterday I mentioned how far it was from Tampa to further the ppoint that we NEED NOT WORRY as it is too far away.

[beachbum_al]

This morning NBC in Mobile is saying that it is 3000 miles from Mobile and Pensacola but I don't think they mean it is going to hit these areas. They are just trying to give their viewers an idea how far away this storm is right now.

[Aquawind]

Yep.. looks like the GFS is picking up another player as well..

[tracyswfla]

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets

Derek,
I am sorry that you have had a bad experience with some TV mets. I can tell you from experience that often the "alarmist" nature doesn't come from the met himself but from consultants or the newsroom. We have been talking preparedness since May. We try to drive that point that you should be prepared prior to the season even beginning. I have made point after point, to NOT raise the surrender flag for FLorida. As you know, there is WAY too much uncertainty this far out. Truth is, our viewers should be aware that a system is out there, but not worry or even be concerned. I like to think that my viewers trust my judgement and when I mention Florida as a concern, then they should really begin preparations.

Admittedly, for many in my field, it has become an alarmist game, but I would go back to my original point in saying it is usually driven by the non weather folks in the TV news business.


Edited to add: yesterday I mentioned how far it was from Tampa to further the ppoint that we NEED NOT WORRY as it is too far away.

Good point, some are way to relaxed to and thankfullly not on the air anymore. I recall a certain "weather person" (not a met) that alot of people loved saying, don't worry about Charley, that storm is not coming anywhere near us. Well, Charley suprised us at the last minute. But you can't blame an entire profession on one comment. Some people are so laid back around here and could care less. They do need a kick in the butt now and then so they prepare and don't get caught.

[Janie2006]

I think it's just too early to tell, PunkyG. Certainly future tropical events aren't written in stone. While I fully understand the public's right and need to know, I think the local media's hype at this moment smacks more of a ratings grab than anything else. After all, Dean hasn't even reached the Leewards or the Lesser Antilles.

Normally, local TV personalities follow the NHC's advisories in reporting a storm's distance from a location. Instead, some local mets are posting the storm's position and following that information with Dean's distance from Mobile or Pensacola. This makes little sense...after all, why not just set Charleston, SC or Galveston as a location? It only makes sense if you want people to pay attention to your broadcasts.

As for Dean himself, I'm hoping that the storm reacts to troughs impacting the ridge. In fact, that may ultimately make the difference in what happens with this system. I'm growing less confident that this system will be drawn poleward by a trough in the near future. We'll see.

I want to qualify my statement by stating that we do have a few local TV mets who are degreed meteorologists and are pretty darn good. Unfortunately, they seem to be few and far between.

[Derek Ortt]

not all of them are as bad as I said, Josh.

What I have found are those who have the met degree are usually the more responsible ones and some of the worst are the morning folk (in Miami, they tend to be pretty faces while the real mets are held back for the evening news)

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA PAST 48 HOURS HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AS IT LIFTS NWD..WITH TRAILING TROF AXIS EXTENDING SSW
THEN SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB. MEANWHILE SHARP UPPER TROF OVER W
ATLC DIGGING INTO BAHAMAS ATTM AS JET DIVES DOWN INTO BACKSIDE OF
VORT N OF BAHAMAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING W ALONG ABOUT 20N...WITH TROPICAL STORM DEAN PASSING
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...MOVING WWD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE ELY FLOW INTO THE NE CARIB REGION WITH
MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL FORCING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
STRAIGHT LINE SLY FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE EVACUATION FOR BRIEF DEEP
CNVTV TOPS. LLVL PERTURBATION APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM TO
THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIB THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THU FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. A DRY SUBSIDENT SLOT IS
THEN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM DEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DIVERSE IN TERMS OF TIMING OF DEAN...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS PAST 2
RUNS IS FOR A CONTINUED W TO WNW MOTION INTO THE CARIB AND
PAST...OR SOUTH...OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE W ATLC HAS BEEN A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON
THE TRACK OF DEAN BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH VARIOUS RUNS
HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALONG 70/71W THAT MIGHT HAVE ALLOWED DEAN TO
TURN MORE NW AND ACROSS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEAN`S CONTINUED RELATIVELY FAST MOTION AND LOW
LATITUDE...IT MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF THIS
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS AND SQUEAK BY THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE FAT
LADY HAS YET TO SING...AND SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.

DEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND THEN A BIT MORE RAPIDLY...AS IT ENTERS THE CARIB AND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STLT IMAGERY PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS
TO ME THAT THE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE
LLVL CENTER HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM PAST 24
HOURS. BUT LLVL CLOUD BANDS IN NW QUAD CONTINUE TO FEED OR DIVE
INTO THIS REMNANT VORT-CNVTV BLOB...AND THIS MAY BE STEALING
INFLOW INTO THE NW AND W OF THE LLVL CIRCULATION CENTER. WOULD
THUS HAVE TO AGREE WITH NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE...TO BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND TRAJECTORY...TROPICAL STORM WINDS WOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIB WATERS SATURDAY...REQUIRING A WATCH THEN
WARNING. STORM FORCE WINDS...HIGH SEAS...AND CYCLONE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTS...PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF BEACH EROSION AND SOME ISOLATED COASTAL
INUNDATION. OVER LAND...WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED...AND
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THE RAINBANDS AND
SQUALLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THIS
LATEST FORECAST DOES GIVE US BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A DIRECT HIT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR...BUT SOME UNFORESEEN CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST AND A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COULD THREATEN ST CROIX
AND SOUTH PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE ALL LOCAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLVING FORECASTS FOR DEAN. BY THE
WAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DECENT LOOKING TROPICAL WAVES BEHIND
DEAN...SO THIS MAY JUST BE THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE PEAK OF THE
SEASON FOR THE REGION.



The discussion from the San Juan NWS.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA PAST 48 HOURS HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AS IT LIFTS NWD..WITH TRAILING TROF AXIS EXTENDING SSW
THEN SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB. MEANWHILE SHARP UPPER TROF OVER W
ATLC DIGGING INTO BAHAMAS ATTM AS JET DIVES DOWN INTO BACKSIDE OF
VORT N OF BAHAMAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING W ALONG ABOUT 20N...WITH TROPICAL STORM DEAN PASSING
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...MOVING WWD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE ELY FLOW INTO THE NE CARIB REGION WITH
MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL FORCING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
STRAIGHT LINE SLY FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE EVACUATION FOR BRIEF DEEP
CNVTV TOPS. LLVL PERTURBATION APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM TO
THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIB THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THU FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. A DRY SUBSIDENT SLOT IS
THEN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM DEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DIVERSE IN TERMS OF TIMING OF DEAN...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS PAST 2
RUNS IS FOR A CONTINUED W TO WNW MOTION INTO THE CARIB AND
PAST...OR SOUTH...OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE W ATLC HAS BEEN A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON
THE TRACK OF DEAN BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH VARIOUS RUNS
HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALONG 70/71W THAT MIGHT HAVE ALLOWED DEAN TO
TURN MORE NW AND ACROSS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEAN`S CONTINUED RELATIVELY FAST MOTION AND LOW
LATITUDE...IT MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF THIS
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS AND SQUEAK BY THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE FAT
LADY HAS YET TO SING...AND SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.

DEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND THEN A BIT MORE RAPIDLY...AS IT ENTERS THE CARIB AND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STLT IMAGERY PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS
TO ME THAT THE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE
LLVL CENTER HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM PAST 24
HOURS. BUT LLVL CLOUD BANDS IN NW QUAD CONTINUE TO FEED OR DIVE
INTO THIS REMNANT VORT-CNVTV BLOB...AND THIS MAY BE STEALING
INFLOW INTO THE NW AND W OF THE LLVL CIRCULATION CENTER. WOULD
THUS HAVE TO AGREE WITH NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE...TO BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND TRAJECTORY...TROPICAL STORM WINDS WOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIB WATERS SATURDAY...REQUIRING A WATCH THEN
WARNING. STORM FORCE WINDS...HIGH SEAS...AND CYCLONE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTS...PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF BEACH EROSION AND SOME ISOLATED COASTAL
INUNDATION. OVER LAND...WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED...AND
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THE RAINBANDS AND
SQUALLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THIS
LATEST FORECAST DOES GIVE US BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A DIRECT HIT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR...BUT SOME UNFORESEEN CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST AND A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY COULD THREATEN ST CROIX
AND SOUTH PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE ALL LOCAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLVING FORECASTS FOR DEAN. BY THE
WAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DECENT LOOKING TROPICAL WAVES BEHIND
DEAN...SO THIS MAY JUST BE THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE PEAK OF THE
SEASON FOR THE REGION.


Here is the discussion from the San Juan NWS about the possible effects of Dean in our neck of the woods.

[Emmett_Brown]

Look at the water vapor pic of the Carribean this morning. Looks like a sizable tutt low. Even though the forecast suggests that this low will fill and lift out, it seems to me like this trough might be around long enough to shear Dean as he enters the E Carribean.

Am i totally off base?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[punkyg]

Guys the weather channel talking about our 3 tropical systems Flossie, Dean and Td5
I say around friday we all will start paying more attention to Dean, because i think Flossie will be gone by then and Td5/Erin makes landfall on the texas coast and Dean might be up to hurricane strength. sunday to monday will tell us where Dean will go.i know yall are wondering
why i mention the weather channel
cause there gonna send Jim cantore, Jeff morrow and Mike sidel to where ever Dean is forcasted to make landfall, because those are the people they always send out. i can't wait to see and listening to Jim cantore whine about something.

[hurricanetrack]

You know, the Mexico landfall idea from the GFS over time has been showing up a lot. Remember a few days ago it showed Mexico on several runs in a row. It is only mid-August, ridging is still quite strong to the north of the tropics. A Mexico landfall would not be a surprise at all. Gilbert did it as did Allen and quite a few others too, though their names escape me as I am very tired this fine August 15 morning.

[Janie2006]

THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE W ATLC HAS BEEN A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON
THE TRACK OF DEAN BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH VARIOUS RUNS
HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALONG 70/71W THAT MIGHT HAVE ALLOWED DEAN TO
TURN MORE NW AND ACROSS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEAN`S CONTINUED RELATIVELY FAST MOTION AND LOW
LATITUDE...IT MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF THIS
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS AND SQUEAK BY THE LOCAL AREA.

I think Dean may very well scoot past the trough without being picked up, which could give it the green light right into the Carribean.

[KWT]

Well Allen actually hit far south Texas, but yea hyour right the GFS has shown a Mexico/S.Texas hit quite a bit at the start and now its going along that idea again. Pretty much every model goes into the Cairbbean right now. The only thing that is slightly nagging in my mind is that the models have very often in the past been too far west and only to bend it back east as you get closer to the forecast, it seems to happen rather often with a system sometimes hitting further east then first progged. The key time for the gulf states according to the GFS is between 120-168hrs. If it stays just N.of West then a Texas/Mexico hit is more likely but knowing the way the models adjust I wouldn't be surprised if the system gets some more northerly latitude then some of the models prog.