Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[vaffie]

That's the biggest difference between a dvorak satellite estimate and a lowest pressure center I've ever seen.

15/0545 UTC 26.1N 91.2W T2.0/2.0 05L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Normandy]

Wow that is a big difference. That would put the center on the NNE edge of the convection

[sealbach]

http://maps.google.com/maps?sourceid=na ... a=N&tab=wl

[Aquawind]

Winds up and pressures down nearby.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[sealbach]

really flaring up now

[Aquawind]

WTUS84 KBRO 151032
HLSBRO
TXZ251-254>257-151600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
532 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BUT
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE INCLUDING KENEDY...WILLACY...AND
CAMERON COUNTIES.

...WATCHES...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN
BAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 400 AM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF LA
PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL NEWS SOURCES AND FOLLOW
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WIND AND
RAIN. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.

...WINDS...
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF KENEDY COUNTY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COULD THEN SPREAD INLAND
TO SECTIONS OF BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KENEDY COUNTY AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE NEARS LAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE POSTED
TODAY FOR AREAS THAT MAY BE AT RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY ON
THURSDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE AS HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
DEVELOP ALONG LOCAL BEACHES. HEAVY SURF AND SWELL WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS.

...HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
ANY STORM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WILL ADD
TO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CREATING A STORM TIDE. OBSERVED TIDES AT PORT
ISABEL ARE NOW TRENDING HIGHER AND ARE ABOUT ONE HALF OF A FOOT
ABOVE PREDICTED. AT TIDES ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE...OR AT
ABOUT TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS ON GULF
BEACHES. AT TIDES TWO FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE OR AT ABOUT THREE FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...GULF BEACHES ARE AWASH TO THE DUNES. THUS
AT HIGH TIDE SOME BEACH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT REGARDING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT.

$$

[Aquawind]

942
WTUS84 KCRP 151010
HLSCRP
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ242>247-151600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
510 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY THE RESIDENTS OF
ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 400 AM CDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE
24.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND
PORT ARANSAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS
WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES LATER TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE-HALF OF A FOOT TO AS
HIGH AS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT PORT
ARANSAS ARE TONIGHT AT 525 PM AND THURSDAY MORNING AT 643 AM. THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR ARE TONIGHT AT 703 PM AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT 1004 AM.

...WINDS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS
RECEIVED LAST MONTH AND THE FACT THAT SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN
FLOOD...FLOODING WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

$$

RUNYEN

[Starburst]

Noticed the black area in the center of the blob on the AVN infrared that is also a sign of deepening correct?

[Thunder44]

The burst of convection is impressive, but it appears to me based on obs that center is on the southern edge of it.

[WmE]

Noticed the black area in the center of the blob on the AVN infrared that is also a sign of deepening correct?

Black means IR temps of aprox. -80 - -85 °C. That's quite impressive.

[Aquawind]

per the 8:05 TED.. tad early..lol

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 91.8W AT 15/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 320 NM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING
THE NIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING AT MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THE LACK OF
CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE LIMITED TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.

[drezee]

I would expect recon to find a 50 - 65 mph tropical storm by the time they leave.

[jasons2k]

I'm getting a LOT of lightning and thunder here. There are some good cells just to my north with the pseudo-outer band.

[Portastorm]

I'm getting a LOT of lightning and thunder here. There are some good cells just to my north with the pseudo-outer band.

Yeah Jason, I see that HGX radar is lit up like a Christmas tree and it includes some intense cells! Stay safe buddy ...

[KatDaddy]

TD 5 has really blown up over the last several hours. Looks like two intense feederbands developing. One on the SE side of the deep convection and the other on the NW side of convection. There even looks like the beginning of another feederband on the NE side. Cant wait to see the first VIS images.

I think its safe to say this is strengthening. It will be very interesting to see where recon locates the center.

[sealbach]

the HGX radar is on sensitive mode...there's not that much rain

[Stratosphere747]

The ever used "things are beginning to get interesting" is now being put in effect..

Recon obs could be fun....

[sealbach]

so far it's been unimpressive from recon

[A1A]

the HGX radar is on sensitive mode...there's not that much rain

Is there a sensitivity meter on this web page or is this just a guess that they are ratcheting it up trying to look at TD5?

[Thunder44]

so far it's been unimpressive from recon

That's because they haven't reach the storm yet.