CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

SHIPS initialized at 51 kt so we should see 60 mph at 5

The 0z models were initialized 45kts. Still 50mph as of the 5am Advisory.

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.

DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
MILES...1880 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N...44.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Scorpion]

Not exactly sure why they havent increased the strength..

[HarlequinBoy]

[brunota2003]

The thing that scares me about Dean is seeing how small he appears to me. If he can get a CDO to form and stay right over the center, that'll be all she wrote IMHO.

[HURAKAN]

First visible.

[Normandy]

Wow.
He looks very, very impressive.

[Meso]

06z GFS

Not an intensity model but will place the pressure for interest' sake
36 Hours

Really strong ridge..And the pressure is up from where it was initialized at (1005)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

60 Hours,Ridge still holding,trough not that deep.Pressure down to 1003

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

90 Hours,Ridge still firmly in place,pressure down to 1000

[Nimbus]

The new track puts the big islands on the strong side of the storm but keeps the center over the Caribbean with minimal land mass interference. The atlantic ridge is not going to extend all the way to Texas. This looks like a serious situation unfolding, maybe one for the history books. The S2K search system is down, "Author" must be a key field in the database so search by author should take no more system resources than loading a thread its a sequential read. Can we get a query written?

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

With that little bit of convection. it makes Dean look small up close.

[Aquawind]

The new track puts the big islands on the strong side of the storm but keeps the center over the Caribbean with minimal land mass interference. The atlantic ridge is not going to extend all the way to Texas. This looks like a serious situation unfolding, maybe one for the history books. The S2K search system is down, "Author" must be a key field in the database so search by author should take no more system resources than loading a thread its a sequential read. Can we get a query written?

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=96883

[Aquawind]

Yep, Still not looking good for the Caribbean at all...

90hr..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090m.gif


Ya Man.. not lookin good for the rastas..

138hr..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

Cancun back in the action..

150hr..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150m.gif

Ugly GOMER...

168hr..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

[HURAKAN]

Tall convection, look at the shadow!!!

[punkyg]

Tall convection, look at the shadow!!!

That was a joke anyways somebody said that dry air was getting to Dean. do yall think the try air is affecting Dean i really don't think so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Cause as you can see behind Dean there is enough moist air to keep him from drying up.

[Aquawind]

Yep.. Dean has a well organized core and that is a deep burst over it.. winds will be up in the next Adv..

Pretty breezy out ahead..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[punkyg]

I hope Dean can keep most of his convection today like previous storms.

oh and one of the weatherladys said Dean looks a little ragged.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Morning Visible

These two have been posted already posted:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rms ... PICAL.html

But here is few more:
Image: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ntvis.html
Loop: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

Dry air retreating to the west:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2007/DEAN/
See 8MB water vapor loop.

But dry air remains to the north, keeping those bands nice looking on satellite, but not convective.

[Janie2006]

Dean looks healthy this morning. No reason to think it will not become a strong player in the next few days. I don't like the way this is starting to pan out, although it's important to remember that Dean is still a long way from the CONUS.

The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Well the models have definitely trended south in the last 24 hours! You guys can talk about throwing runs in the trash all you want but the NHC has significantly adjusted their track, now calling for a Carribean storm on the cusp of entering the GOM. Obviously they are buying into the latest model runs.