Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks ... darn i hate that table its annoying ..

yeah...you would think they would at least include a legend stating what means what.

right!! Im sure the person who put it together know whats what!!

we are all in the dark .. right now nothing new to look at just recon in about 2hrs which by the way is too long for me to stay up

after the 2am advisory im going to bed

[hsvwx]

I'm not sure if they are doing a 1 am advisory. Usually at the bottom its says something about an intermediate advisory being issued 3 hours later and the next full advisory 6 hours later. This one only says the next advisory will be 15/0900

[Bailey1777]

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not sure if they are doing a 1 am advisory. Usually at the bottom its says something about an intermediate advisory being issued 3 hours later and the next full advisory 6 hours later. This one only says the next advisory will be 15/0900

you know thats true

i just figured with watches there would be a intermediate advisory hmmm..

[weatherguru18]

Advisories on this system should be 2am, 5am, 8am, 11am, 2pm, ect...

[hsvwx]

nevermind...I found that they are in the public advisory. Sorry about that

[Aric Dunn]

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

well ok then I guess that settles it

[vaffie]

Agree. Freeport looks a distinct possibility. I still think the center will ultimately end up south of Galveston. Will be super-interesting to see the recon data as well as the satellite pictures after the eclipse. Until then will just have to wait and I suppose might as well sleep until then. I expect that we will witness a major blow-up of convection at 25.8 north, 90.5 west. We shall see. I expect major adjustments to track and possibly delaying landfall estimate until Thursday night.

[Aric Dunn]

before




latest image




convection is definitely re-firing

[Stratosphere747]

There is always an intermediate advisory once warning/watches are issued.

[hsvwx]

It surely will be interesting to see what recon finds. I do not suspect an upgrade until recon gets out there. But I imagine that recon will find a system much more organized that what it saw this afternoon. But, that is still a couple hours from now. So I'm headed to bed.

[Aric Dunn]

011
WTNT35 KNHC 150547
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
100 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Extremeweatherguy]

New advisory is 0.4N and 0.2W of the old position.

[Stormcenter]

It looks to me like it's trying to get better organized and moving NW.
I think NHC will change their tune later today.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Bailey1777]

Still NW. Have to wait until tomorrow but I do believe we will see a slight bend to the right of forcasted path.

[hsvwx]

No surprise there. Hopefull recon will get there in time to provide useful information for their next update. That would surely been a fun ride going through the storm at night.

[Aric Dunn]

No surprise there. Hopefull recon will get there in time to provide useful information for their next update. That would surely been a fun ride going through the storm at night.

Ivan would have been awesome .. with lightning in the EYEwall

[Aric Dunn]

before




latest image








convection is definitely re-firing

notice the little tiny burst of convection starting on the last two images
which would be possibly the South side of the circ .. if that were happening i would say we have a much better defined circ

[Aric Dunn]

I think you all might find this interesting... its the WRF (not the HWRF) but if you notice the NNW motion in 30 hours or so

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html


just looked at it agian .. almost looks like a N to even NNE motion towards the end ... lol

or maybe it stalls it ..

[Aric Dunn]