INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good tonight.

[RL3AO]

1 is the center they found a few hours ago
2 is the most recent center

[Kludge]

recon seems to be finding a center (winds went to 1 knot) near 23.5N, 90.5W. This is about 1 degree of latitude north of where it was earlier. Interesting..

It appears recon has ended their southward leg and is turning NW, and then NE to pass through the "center" one more time on theiir way home. I'll bet they see 30+ knots on this leg.

[JonathanBelles]

About what time will they be leaving?

[Extremeweatherguy]

1 is the center they found a few hours ago
2 is the most recent center

are you sure? I remember plotting 1 knot winds at a different location when they went through the center before. May be because it was so broad it extended that far north?

[HouTXmetro]

Regardless of where it comes ashore, Houston will be on the "dirty" side of the storm. I'm particulary interested in what direction the storm will approach the coast. If it's booking it to the west when it comes ashore conditions might not be too bad. If it comes in slower and more NW we might have some problems.

[marcane_1973]

Wow!!! This system looks impressive on the latest IR. Nice big blob of deep reds now. I think it looks healthier than Dean. Whats the chances that this could be a minimal 75 mph cane at landfall?

[RL3AO]

are you sure? I remember plotting 1 knot winds at a different location when they went through the center before. May be because it was so broad it extended that far north?

Yeah. #1 points to this group

572
URNT15 KNHC 141833
AF305 01EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20070814
182530 2348N 09003W 9843 00208 0079 +244 +244 113009 011 999 999 03
182600 2346N 09003W 9842 00208 0077 +244 +244 112009 011 999 999 03
182630 2345N 09003W 9843 00206 0076 +246 +246 109011 012 999 999 03
182700 2343N 09002W 9841 00208 0076 +244 +244 103007 008 999 999 03
182730 2342N 09002W 9842 00207 0076 +244 +244 104005 006 999 999 03
182800 2340N 09002W 9842 00206 0075 +246 +246 105005 005 999 999 03
182830 2339N 09002W 9842 00207 0076 +246 +246 115005 005 999 999 03
182900 2337N 09002W 9843 00206 0076 +246 +244 126004 004 999 999 03
182930 2335N 09002W 9841 00208 0076 +246 +246 132003 004 999 999 03
183000 2334N 09001W 9842 00207 0076 +246 +246 130002 002 999 999 03
183030 2332N 09001W 9842 00207 0076 +246 +246 152000 001 999 999 03
183100 2331N 09001W 9842 00206 0075 +246 +246 313001 001 999 999 03
183130 2329N 09001W 9842 00206 0075 +246 +246 359002 002 999 999 03
183200 2328N 09000W 9842 00207 0076 +246 +246 030001 001 999 999 03
183230 2326N 09000W 9842 00208 0077 +246 +246 082001 001 999 999 03
183300 2325N 09000W 9842 00209 0078 +246 +246 090001 001 999 999 03
183330 2323N 09000W 9842 00209 0078 +248 +246 088001 001 999 999 03
183400 2321N 09000W 9843 00208 0078 +250 +244 126001 001 999 999 03
183430 2320N 08959W 9841 00210 0078 +250 +246 189001 001 999 999 03
183500 2318N 08959W 9843 00208 0078 +250 +248 201002 002 999 999 03
$$

[lrak]

our local met just said between Port Mansfield & Port Aransas hit? And he said we would be on the right wet quadrant? Dale Nelson is his name from KRIS TV.

[sevenleft]

Regardless of where it comes ashore, Houston will be on the "dirty" side of the storm. I'm particulary interested in what direction the storm will approach the coast. If it's booking it to the west when t comes ashore conditions might not be too bad. If it comes in slower and more NW we might have some problems.

Probably a heavy rain threat with some supercells in the landfalling bands.

[btangy]

I think it's a pretty good bet we'll have a TD at the next advisory. The convection near the purported center is clearly persisting and probably leading to some pretty strong concentration of vorticity underneath it. With the diurnal max coming up, it'll probably only help to maintain this area of convection. Certainly looks better than Dean right now. As an aside, if you haven't done so already... check out Sepat in the W Pacific for a Wilma-esq intensification that has recently occurred.

[Downdraft]

Sweet Jesus in heaven, please have mercy on Louisiana and bring this system directly over New Orleans. We cannot take this heat anymore. We are pleading for relief from some type of depression or storm. Amen.

Be careful what you wish for it's a long season yet.

[bbadon]

Could on of the pro mets explain what is happening to the ridge right now in Central to west texas? I was noticing on the national water vapor some changes may be occuring.

[weatherguru18]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

[RL3AO]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

Because any system in the Gulf can rapidly intensify.

[Downdraft]

Not one for rash predictions but I'm thinking Erin by 11 PM, 5 AM at the latest. To close to the cost to mess around.

[HouTXmetro]

Could on of the pro mets explain what is happening to the ridge right now in Central to west texas? I was noticing on the national water vapor some changes may be occuring.

do u have a link to the satelite you are refering to?

[Air Force Met]

OK...back from picking the dogs up from being boarded for 2 weeks (after vacation).

Here is my observation: I just plotted a sample of the recon obs and the wind field and pressure field is certainly elongated to the NNE. The latest center is near 23.5/90.5...which is just a little west of where it was 4 hours ago...so it isn't moving very fast...which is what you expect out of a system trying to get its act together. There is a VERY sharp TROF extending NNEward from the LLC through 24/90 - 24.5/89.5 - 25.5/88.5. Not surprisingly this is where the convection has been blowing up all day.

I've also noted a pressure drop of about 1.5 MB in the last 4 hours around the center...this could be part of the diurnal pressure curve...we'll have to see. Bottom line is this: If the convection maintains in the same area...the center should have no problem jogging northward to near 25N. Almost every storm I have watched that is built like this will have that occur. It will probably happen during the diurnal max and that will give it about a day to ramp up.

[weatherguru18]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

Because any system in the Gulf can rapidly intensify.

Eh...can, if, could...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks AFM! Looks like the center hasn't quite moved north yet like I originally thought, but the prospects are good for it to do so. should be an interesting evening and overnight period.