CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, it looks like an expansion of the wind field to me, and its becoming better organized.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

[storms in NC]

Models still inconsistent even for the islands...

Very true. It is cause it is a poorly TS at this time.IMO

[Weatherfreak14]

Still holding on, i think we may see it get better organized later tonight, and i think in the next 24hrs what Dean does is going to be vitial for the path of this storm soon on its way towards a hurricane.

[windstorm99]

12z runs were initiated early this morning before any shift northward occured, so this may make the 18z shift again.

[Wx_Warrior]

Can some1 post the link to UKMET?

[cycloneye]

Can some1 post the link to UKMET?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

[Lowpressure]

Why do people worry about the NHC track of a system 3000+ miles away, it is not even good at this point with regards to point of entry into the Leewards? It does not matter this far out and it will change every run for a while.
The Leewards should be the first concern, Dean is looking better and moving into a better environment.

[Scorpion]

HWRF puts it at 904 mb south of Hispaniola

[KWT]

12z GFDL and also the 12z HWRF are way south of previous runs tohugh it is all based off GFS i believe so if thats wrong then the whole lot are going to be wrong as well...still ost runs so far are tracking much further south probably reflected by the slight S of west movement plus the fast foward speed, it makes sense the models wil ladjust westwards.

The 12z GFDL doesn't deepen the system really much at all ,gets down to 988mbs at 66hrs then weakens back up to 996mbs...
As for the HWRF...well you know how strong Ivan was at its very peak, now think of that hitting DR/Haiti.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126s.gif

909mbs that is (Edit, just seen an even higher resolution version, appear sits down to 904mbs by that point!)

[jasons2k]

The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

Funny how people stop ranting at the GFS when it conveniently changes its track back to Texas (only to be followed thereafter by another major shift and criticism re-emerging).

There's good reason for that. What the GFS did yesterday made no sense. I called it "bogus" then and it it flip-flops again, I'll call it "bogus" again too. Unless I see a clear reason why either 1) this will get picked-up by a trough or 2) the ridge collapses and it goes north, I will call the GFS "bogus" every time it plows Dean into the ridge. No flip-flopping here.

But that's the problem...the GFS did not "plow Dean into the ridge". It showed a weakening ridge under the influence of an approaching trough. These models run on logarithms and do not show two contradictory things like what you suggested when Dean went "plowing" through the ridge...What would have been a better way to phrase that statement would be that "Dean got pulled in through a weakness between the ridges just off the east coast, which the GFS clearly depicted on yesterday's run.

So what I am seeing here is arbitrary cherry-picking of the GFS models that support a strong ridge scenario over a weakening ridge scenario.

Yesterday's GFS run graphic did show why Dean would 1) get picked up by a trough and 2) how the ridge partially eroded off the east coast around Bermuda so that Dean could go in a more northerly direction.

The Euro held onto the ridge much more realistically than the GFS. What the GFS was suddenly depicting with the trough and subsequent erosion of the ridge did not make sense. Basically the GFS and all the other models that initialize off of it were a bad set of runs. I'm not "arbitrarily cherry-picking" anything. What I saw was a bogus run of the GFS and predictably the whole forum went into SFL/EC panic mode. Predictably many of the other models swung right. Surprisingly the NHC bought into it and shifted right as well. Let me guess, after today's run, the other models (The GFDL already has) and subsequently the NHC will shift left again. You can call it "cherry picking" if you want, I'll call it analyzing more than a single model run of a single model and trying to find some consistency in the entire package. I've been around long enough to not buy into the GFS when it suddenly crashes a ridge and swings a system 2000 miles east of the previous runs.

So far, two things are consistent: a weak trough that misses Dean and a rebuilding ridge over the SW Atlantic. Both argue for a Caribbean system...which is what I have said all along. Consistently. After that we get so far into the future it's anyone's guess....

[HUC]

ok,tropical low i try http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/284.jpg

[vacanechaser]

another thing i noticed, the ukmet has the header depression 4.. so it my not have taken in to account the fact it is a tropical storm.. that may have an effect on steering at different levels.. just dont know until later this evening..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HUC]

AN other try[img]http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/284.jpg[/img]

[wxmann_91]

HWRF puts it at 904 mb south of Hispaniola

Source?

Dean isn't the healthiest TC right now... still got outflow boundaries eminating from the NE Quad... environment is a bit stable attm.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another thing to look at is Erin or whatever 91 is after she/it does its thing in Texas....Is there a lil High that builds over texas????

[Wx_Warrior]

Another thing to look at is Erin or whatever 91 is after she/it does its thing in Texas....Is there a lil High that builds over texas????

[JonathanBelles]

HWRF puts it at 904 mb south of Hispaniola

Source?

Dean isn't the healthiest TC right now... still got outflow boundaries eminating from the NE Quad... environment is a bit stable attm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

[wxmann_91]

HWRF puts it at 904 mb south of Hispaniola

Source?

Dean isn't the healthiest TC right now... still got outflow boundaries eminating from the NE Quad... environment is a bit stable attm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

Thanks... I was looking at the FSU page but I just realized that that was yesterday's run.


WOW!!!

[vacanechaser]

Another thing to look at is Erin or whatever 91 is after she/it does its thing in Texas....Is there a lil High that builds over texas????

true.. depending on how strong it gets, could really effect the upper pattern to some extent



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Steve]

904 = End of the World storms. There haven't been many that went lower than that over the years (Rita, Wilma, Allen and Gilbert????)

Steve