CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

42 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[storms in NC]

Zoom in and look at the center and you will see it trying to deepen as the Clouds spin

Looks cool

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[terstorm1012]

As for the rest I'm really surprised that the new model is so aggressive with Dean intensity wise. Wouldn't a storm that ramps up quickly be more inclined to move poleward?

I think there would have to be something to move it poleward. Weather systems don't come with propulsion, they don't move themselves. The trend towards larger systems moving poleward is due to the Coriolis effect if I'm not mistaken. In this case I don't think the storm is close to large enough yet. Also a large high is moving it to the west - WSW atm. The only break in that is at the western periphery of that high, and the question is whether it will build back towards the EC USA or maintain that weakness as Dean approaches.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect

Coriolis is what I was thinking of, thank you for answering my question! (Wasn't sure anyone saw it!). A pretty strong front is supposed to come through later this week. My local NWS office mentions Dean in its morning discussion, and the Philadelphia office mentions a weak cold front coming through around Wednesday, and a stronger one late on Thursday. So I suppose this could mean everything depending. Or it could be too late.

[jasons2k]

Ok...everybody is concerned about a strike on them...except me. I want that baby right here in Houston, TX. I've never been in a hurricane (Rita doesn't count although I went through the largest evacuation in U.S. history) and I want to experience one!!!

Now if I lived in the islands or Puerto Rico, now is not the time to panic. Most of the islanders (I think) have storm shutters that can automatically lower during a storm. This thing is still days away. I'm not so sure that this will feel the weakness of a troph. It's far to the south, even more so than first thought, and is farther west than anticipated. Again, it's all about the timeing. I have a gut feeling that this thing may buzz right by Puerto Rico (north or south). The next 24 hrs are critical. Afterall, your "asking" a hurricane to hit a point over a thousand miles away.

Dude, didn't you see what Rita did to our Community Center? I wouldn't want to see anything worse than that, that's for sure

[Andy_L]

hmmmm....posted this question already but i think it went into "post-never-never-land"

How close does Dean have to get to the Islands before Recon will start flights into the storm???

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[KBBOCA]

That AccuWeather TRACK is similar to the NHC's, yes, but it seems AccuWeather ups the intensity to a Cat2 much sooner than NHC. Or maybe I'm misreading something?

I confess to pretty much ignoring AccuWeather... I've just never been a fan.

[RL3AO]

hmmmm....posted this question already but i think it went into "post-never-never-land"

How close does Dean have to get to the Islands before Recon will start flights into the storm???

55W

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 HR 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

[x-y-no]

Another ominous looking run for the Leewards and Puerto Rico ...

[Javlin]

Dean still seems to be S of the the new forcast points.One other note if you look out of front of Dean at the little Vortice @11.5N and 48W which direction is it going still due W and has been for days Sat granted it is being steared by a slightly different set of currents but Dean has been following it for days.Deans cloud tops along with the forward speed all point due W if not maybe a little S of W.It seems that Dean is staying on the S side of the NHC forcast cone almost,kinda reminds me of Ivan,it stayed on the S side of the guidence.Look at the Central Atl loop drop in the forcast points and look at the little vortice out front.kevin

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[storms in NC]

Not suprised after the 11AM update. I seen this comeing. But I still hold on to hope for the ones in the Islands and it go back to the right.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Trader Ron]

72 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Looks South of the previous run.

[x-y-no]

Dean still seems to be S of the the new forcast points.One other note if you look out of front of Dean at the little Vortice @11.5N and 48W which direction is it going still due W and has been for days Sat granted it is being steared by a slightly different set of currents but Dean has been following it for days.Deans cloud tops along with the forward speed all point due W if not maybe a little S of W.It seems that Dean is staying on the S side of the NHC forcast cone almost,kinda reminds me of Ivan,it stayed on the S side of the guidence.Look at the Central Atl loop drop in the forcast points and look at the little vortice out front.kevin

That little vortex is remarkably persistent given its lack of convection, isn't it?

I don't think there's that much difference in the low and mid level steering, so it's probably not a bad guide ...

[Ivanhater]

Trough a coming...lets see if it picks it up

[USTropics]

Updated with in depth blog entry:
http://ustropics.net

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Most of the islanders (I think) have storm shutters that can automatically lower during a storm

What makes you think that? And if so, what difference would it make? Most people in the states, South Florida in particular don't have automatic shutters.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If trough doesn't get it, it will be GOM