CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Re: Re:

#1181 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:08 am

cycloneye wrote:
caneseddy wrote:Time to call my family in PR and let them know to prepare for a Cat 2-Cat 4 storm coming their way :(

That track that's coming from the SW to PR is too similar to the San Felipe Hurricane of 1928, which cut right through the island as a Cat 5 and we all know where it ended up afterwards and what it did :eek:

It's too early to worry here in South Florida but just in case, I'll go to the store later this week to pick up some extra supplies, even though we've stocked up already

The important thing is for our friends in the islands to be ready


Same here.I hope that it tracks away from here.but if not,I will be prepared with my family.


Where would the people that don't have a safe home to stay in go to? I pray for you all in the ISLANDS. Please be safe
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#1182 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:09 am

NWS Miami backing off on mentioning how it will affect South Florida weather whereas yesterday they thought this thing may pass us by to the south enhancing ESE windflow......

000
FXUS62 KMFL 141433 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1033 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

.UPDATE...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALLOW FOR
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA KEEPING THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS MORNING OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND ALSO ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

SO HAVE SHIFTED THE NUMEROUS POPS FROM THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE
EAST COAST AREAS AND THE SCATTERED POPS FROM THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE
WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WORKING DOWN INTO THE CWA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE MORNING HWO UPDATE FOR THIS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY 14/23Z...WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&
.SHORT TERM...54/BNB
.AVIATION...70/DD


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007/

SYNOPSIS...LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVR OK/KS EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST TO ERN GULF OF MEX. LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN
CANADA SOUTH TO NRN BAHAMAS. SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST AREA UNDER
MID/UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. VERY WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWEST TO A SFC LOW
JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
SLIDING THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN GOOD VENTILATION FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. WITH THIS IN MIND, DECIDED TO GO
CLOSER TO GFS WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PWAT
VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO (2.26 INCHES), SO ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL AGAIN MOVE VERY SLOWLY RESULTING IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE INDICATED IN BOTH THE ZFP AND
HWO. WL KEEP SCT POPS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING SHWRS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC TROUGH, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
IT...WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE STRAITS AND WILL BE
REPLACE BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS. UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
LEAVING A CUTOFF LOW VCNTY NRN BAHAMAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP
DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP
BY ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPR RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD KEEPING S. FL UNDER SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS (ISOLD TO LOW
SCT) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TD#4 CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FAR
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR FURTHER AND LATEST INFORMATION ON
TD#4 PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES.


AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MID-MORNING THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE ONSET OF THE MORNING SEA BREEZE WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOUTH FLORIA PENINSULA...WITH
TERMINALS KMIA...KMTB AND KOPF HAVING PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS...PERIODS OF
MVFR AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

MARINE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1183 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:10 am

I could be incorrect, but it looks like a much better low-level inflow system has been developing, which would indicate a further decrease in low to mid-level shear. Additionally, persistent convective "bursts" are occurring nearly directly over the LLC, so I would not be surprised to see slow organized (next 24 to 48 hours) followed by steady intensification when it approaches the islands. It is still too early to say, "It's going to be a monster!" We don't need hype, but I agree - all systems should be taken seriously, and I think Dean will eventually reach hurricane status (at one point in its life span).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This appears to be a classic "slow fuse" (in terms of intensification and NOT track) Cape Verde system (see Frances of 2004 and Georges of 1998). These tropical cyclones slowly initially intensified, but the most rapid strengthening occurred west of 45 or 50W. Most model guidance indicates a favorable subtropical high over Dean, so I would not be surprised if we see some substantial intensification near the islands. The primary issue involves some lingering shear, but it has been gradually decreasing over the past 24 hours. I would watch Dean closely from the islands and the Southeast.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1184 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:11 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1200,1500Z
B. NOAA2X 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z
D. 24.9N 94.9W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. REMARKS: ORIGINALLY AN AF MISSION FOR 15/0900Z.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1800,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/1530Z
D. 25.5N 95.6W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO,
BUT BEGIN FIXING TD 04 AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 53.5W
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#1185 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:12 am

Note that the NWS Miami is forecasting a strong ridge over the EC to build in....that would support a WNW movement through the islands as Dean deepns and then movement into the SE Bahamas and a bend towards the west at some point....its all timing...maybe it bends west south or through the Antilles....

preventing recurvature of Dean down the road

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP
BY ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPR RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD KEEPING S. FL UNDER SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS (ISOLD TO LOW
SCT) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1186 Postby Tenspeed » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:14 am

I am concerned about a Louisiana strike.
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Re:

#1187 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:15 am

gatorcane wrote:Note that the NWS Miami is forecasting a strong ridge over the EC to build in....that would support a WNW movement through the islands as Dean deepns and then movement into the SE Bahamas and a bend towards the west at some point....its all timing...maybe it bends west south or through the Antilles....

preventing recurvature of Dean down the road

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP
BY ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPR RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD KEEPING S. FL UNDER SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS (ISOLD TO LOW
SCT) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


Maybe future runs of the models will pick up on this observation in their long-term forecasts.
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#1188 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:16 am

I wanna see Dean do a loop dee loop like Jeanne did in 2004.
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#1189 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:19 am

Hey guys wheres BerwickBay i wanna see him use his *Berwick model*
on Dean.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1190 Postby duris » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:20 am

Tenspeed wrote:I am concerned about a Louisiana strike.


Don't worry, so long as I don't let my contractor finish repairing my damage from Katrina, I think we're ok. He's 99.9% done, and I can't bring myself to even call him because I feel like if he finishes, I'm ripe to be hit. :D

Seriously, nothing targeting us yet, and we saw with Katrina how the models jumped, so we can just be vigilant. I may go buy plywood just because I need to be prepared anyway and will have a place to store it when my son goes to college next week. And, God forbid, if anything does happen, I'm moving to Lafayette.
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#1191 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:21 am

Blah Post gone
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1192 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:22 am

Edit: Moot post now.
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Re:

#1193 Postby cajungal » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:23 am

punkyg wrote:I wanna see Dean do a loop dee loop like Jeanne did in 2004.


Betsy also did a loopety loop off the coast of Jacksonville, Fl. It almost caught Key Largo off guard. Not saying Dean will do the same thing. Dean is still a waiting game, he is still a few days away from the islands.
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#1194 Postby HeatherAKC » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:24 am

...... (nevermind)
Last edited by HeatherAKC on Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1195 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:24 am

punkyg wrote:I wanna see Dean do a loop dee loop like Jeanne did in 2004.


You are Sick. This is what she did. Now think about it.
Tropical Storm Jeanne

Tropical Storm Jeanne passed through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday 15 September killing two people. It made landfall on the Dominican Republic as a category 1 hurricane and moved slowly northwest Thursday 16 and Friday 17, losing strength but causing extensive damage. Eleven deaths were reported on the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Jeanne reached Haiti 17 September, with heavy rain falling over deforested hills in the north. Flooding started slowly on Saturday 18 September and then increased quickly to flash flooding causing fast run off into the valleys and towns.

The Directorate of Civil Protection in Haiti estimates the total number of dead currently at 1,514, with 952 still missing, and 2,600 injured. Some 300,000 people have been affected by flooding, with 4,471 houses destroyed resulting in 20,000 people left homeless. The city of Gonaives was the most seriously affected by the hurricane. Other towns in the peninsula between Gonaives and Port de Paix were also affected, including Ennery, Gros Morne, and Ans Rouge.

After Haiti, the storm passed over the northwestern Bahamas on 25 September as a category 5 hurricane. The most significant damage in the Bahamas was caused to the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco. No deaths or serious injuries were reported but approximately 100 homes were damaged. The Bahamas Red Cross have undertaken an initial assessment that indicates up to 5,000 families are in need of assistance. The International Federation of the Red Cross are providing support to the Bahamas Red Cross, having utilised funds from their Disasters and Emergency Relief Fund (to which DFID makers an annual contribution).
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Re: Re:

#1196 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:26 am

storms in NC wrote:
punkyg wrote:I wanna see Dean do a loop dee loop like Jeanne did in 2004.


You are Sick. This is what she did. Now think about it.


He's a kid so he doesn't understand the ramifications of his words...
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1197 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:27 am

Ok, I hate to ask this. Excuse me if I do...but I have training in Orlando all next week and have to leave my kids behind (with Grandma) on the SW Coast of Florida. I am starting to worry that I will be in in Orlando when this thing hits. I guess I don't have a question, just a major concern....
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1198 Postby weatherguru18 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:28 am

Ok...everybody is concerned about a strike on them...except me. I want that baby right here in Houston, TX. I've never been in a hurricane (Rita doesn't count although I went through the largest evacuation in U.S. history) and I want to experience one!!!

Now if I lived in the islands or Puerto Rico, now is not the time to panic. Most of the islanders (I think) have storm shutters that can automatically lower during a storm. This thing is still days away. I'm not so sure that this will feel the weakness of a troph. It's far to the south, even more so than first thought, and is farther west than anticipated. Again, it's all about the timeing. I have a gut feeling that this thing may buzz right by Puerto Rico (north or south). The next 24 hrs are critical. Afterall, your "asking" a hurricane to hit a point over a thousand miles away.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1199 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:29 am

storms in nc, thanks for saying what needed to be said.

As for the rest I'm really surprised that the new model is so aggressive with Dean intensity wise. Wouldn't a storm that ramps up quickly be more inclined to move poleward?
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#1200 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:31 am

Guys, the ignore function exists for a reason. Let's get back on topic.
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