CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

yzerfan · #841 Postby **yzerfan** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:37 pm

Jason Kelly on Channel 7 was talking about the high not being as strong as originally thought, and he mentioned a recurve toward the Carolinas as something that seemed to be more of a possibility today than it was yesterday.

#842 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:40 pm

78 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_078l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078l.gif

DESTRUCTION5 · #843 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:40 pm

seeing lots of differences this time around..

#844 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:40 pm

Through 60 hours, the GFS is forecasting the first H50 short wave trough over the western ATLC between 60-80W along to be filling (weakening) as the TC approaches 50W, moving a shade north of due west. Keep an eye on what the GFS does with the strong H50 short wave trough north of the Great Lakes from 72 hours onward - if it drops more toward the SE, it's solution will likely end up with the system gaining more and more latitude beginning around 60W or so.

vaffie · #845 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:40 pm

canetracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:This 00z run looks more slower in the motion.

You took the words right out of my mouth.

It's actually faster. Compare the 00Z 66 hour position and the 18Z 72 hour position and you will see that it's been moving faster.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

#846 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:41 pm

84 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

#847 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:42 pm

Hey, Bob Breck is forecasting recurve!

Bob Breck wrote:Historically, the average date for the first hurricane is August 14th. If the computer models are correct, which they often are not, TD # 4 out in the Atlantic will become Hurricane Dean in 2 days. My thinking right now is this system will turn well east of the United States and not affect the mainland.

From the bobbreck.com web blog.

#848 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:43 pm

Dontcha just FEEL safe with Bob forecasting a recurve!

#849 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:44 pm

90 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif
96 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

#850 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:45 pm

A change from the past 2 runs.It now hits the Leewards so no fish in this run.

#851 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:46 pm

96 hours and still approaching the lesser antilles

StormWarning1 · #852 Postby **StormWarning1** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:46 pm

Stronger ridging at hour 96,and a a stronger storm

#853 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:47 pm

a little closer to the antilles on this run it seems

#854 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:48 pm

still eyeing the trough off the east coast..seeing if it deepens or flatens out

#855 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:55 pm

108hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif

miamicanes177 · #856 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:55 pm

This run is not good for you cycloneye. Looks to pass right over your head.

vaffie · #857 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:56 pm

At 108 hours, looks like it's track will pass over Puerto Rico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif

#858 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:56 pm

114 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_114l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_114l.gif

#859 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:56 pm

Just NE of Fajardo,Puerto Rico in 120 hours.

EyELeSs1 · #860 Postby **EyELeSs1** » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:56 pm

not a good site @ 108hrs... are any other models coming in now besides the gfs?

CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

Who is online