CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[skufful]

I have no idea how to get this to display here. But could someone tell me where these guys get the GFS information this far?



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Then click on models

[stormchazer]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[Weatherfreak14]

I found this intresting. It shows Andrew...could this be a sign... it also shows a lot of fish, maybe a good sign.

[stormchazer]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Although it looks by the 11 PM track that Puerto Rico is out of a direct hit,I will not let my guard down until I see the system going east of us.However our friends in the northern Leewards must watch the progress of this system as it may brush them.Time will tell what will occur as it moves closer to the islands..

[windycity]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

[Deputy Van Halen]

I found this intresting. It shows Andrew...could this be a sign... it also shows a lot of fish, maybe a good sign.

Something doesn't look right about this graphic. 400 miles is a pretty wide radius. In 150+ years, there have only been this many TD's there in August? Seems like there should have been a hundred.

[JTD]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

Very much so. In fact to the south of 20/60. From NHC 11 P.M. discussion.

INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT

[jhamps10]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

Herbert box? Someone care to inform me on this one....

[JTD]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

Herbert box? Someone care to inform me on this one....

Certainly. From Knight Ridders Newspapers:

MIAMI _ It's the heart of the hurricane season _ Tropical Storm Dean suddenly spun to life Wednesday in the Atlantic Ocean _ and here's a tip for the faint of heart:

If you want an early and generally reliable indication of whether a storm in the Atlantic is destined to bang on your front door as a major hurricane, keep an eye on the Hebert Box.

Discovered by a veteran local meteorologist, the Hebert Box is a square, relatively small section of ocean touched by almost every Atlantic storm since 1900 that has struck South Florida as an intense hurricane.

If a Category Three, Four or Five storm, born in the Atlantic, misses the region bordered by latitudes 15 and 20 degrees north and longitudes 60 and 65 degrees west, it virtually always misses South Florida.

If one of those storms _ with winds higher than 110 mph _ touches that region . . .

``Really, really pay attention,'' said Paul Hebert, a former forecaster at...

[BUD]

Does anybody have the track of Floyd of 99???or link??

[JTD]

Does anybody have the track of Floyd of 99???or link??

Indeed:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19996.asp

[Ola]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

Herbert box? Someone care to inform me on this one....

Its from the movie Pirates of the Caribbean. There is a very little unhabited island where Davy Jones Heart is kept inside the Herbet Box. But the island is so small its not on the map.





















LOL no really, its like lat long 20 N 60 W or something like that. Its a general rule that if a storm passes in there (a box area of coordinates) ther is a very good chance it will hit the CONUS.

[ekal]

Does anybody have the track of Floyd of 99???or link??

There ya go. That was a close call (triggered the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history).

Barely missed the Hebert Box.

[jhamps10]

Thanks for the Herbert article.

OK so in other words, if TD4/Dean goes thru Herbert, then Miami is in a higher risk? I find that wierd, that this small area of water almost makes it a bee-line for MIA. Interesting, gee you learn something new every day.

[skufful]

Does anybody have the track of Floyd of 99???or link??

http://weather.terrapin.com/hurricane/index.jsp

A decent link for historical hurricanes.

[Jam151]

the hebert box (not herbert fwiw) means nothing compared to the actual synoptics dictating the storm movement...and there have been enough exceptions to the rule to prove that

[ekal]

Hurricanecity has a nice discussion on the Hebert boxes (yep, there are two) that can be found here.

And yes, agree with Jam above that it all depends upon the synoptics. Although they can be a fair climatological tool, Hebert boxes are just a reflection of history.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0z GFS time..

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

Still waiting for the 00z GFS to start rolling out.