Moderate Risk Monday - Upper Midwest Derecho developing
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Moderate Risk Monday - Upper Midwest Derecho developing
The SPC has gone MDT in the Upper Midwest. The thinking is that a major derecho could develop, particularly in Minnesota, W Wisconsin and NE Iowa. Could be interesting...
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Siberian Express
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Minnesota, USA
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MERGE AND TURN SEWD ALONG ZONE OF
FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. WITH TIME AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE BEFORE
ACCELERATING INTO NWRN WI LATE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...DARROW
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MERGE AND TURN SEWD ALONG ZONE OF
FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. WITH TIME AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE BEFORE
ACCELERATING INTO NWRN WI LATE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...DARROW
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 132354
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MNC001-003-009-015-017-019-021-025-035-037-041-049-053-059-065-
067-079-085-093-095-097-103-115-121-123-127-129-131-139-141-143-
145-153-163-171-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
BROWN CARLTON CARVER
CASS CHISAGO CROW WING
DAKOTA DOUGLAS GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC
KANDIYOHI LE SUEUR MCLEOD
MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON
NICOLLET PINE POPE
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE
SIBLEY STEARNS TODD
WASHINGTON WRIGHT
WIC003-005-007-013-017-031-033-035-051-091-093-095-099-107-109-
113-129-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS
DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON
PEPIN PIERCE POLK
PRICE RUSK SAWYER
ST. CROIX WASHBURN
LSZ121-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 594 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 132355Z - 140700Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55ENE BRD/BRAINERD MN/ - 35E MKT/MANKATO MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /36W DLH - 40S MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
LAT...LON 46689083 44209108 44209533 46689526
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 594 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Should be a PDS watch IMO...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MERGE AND TURN SEWD ALONG ZONE OF
FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. WITH TIME AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE BEFORE
ACCELERATING INTO NWRN WI LATE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...DARROW
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES EAST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MERGE AND TURN SEWD ALONG ZONE OF
FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. WITH TIME AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE BEFORE
ACCELERATING INTO NWRN WI LATE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...DARROW
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 132354
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MNC001-003-009-015-017-019-021-025-035-037-041-049-053-059-065-
067-079-085-093-095-097-103-115-121-123-127-129-131-139-141-143-
145-153-163-171-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
BROWN CARLTON CARVER
CASS CHISAGO CROW WING
DAKOTA DOUGLAS GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC
KANDIYOHI LE SUEUR MCLEOD
MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON
NICOLLET PINE POPE
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE
SIBLEY STEARNS TODD
WASHINGTON WRIGHT
WIC003-005-007-013-017-031-033-035-051-091-093-095-099-107-109-
113-129-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS
DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON
PEPIN PIERCE POLK
PRICE RUSK SAWYER
ST. CROIX WASHBURN
LSZ121-140700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0594.070813T2355Z-070814T0700Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 594 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 132355Z - 140700Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55ENE BRD/BRAINERD MN/ - 35E MKT/MANKATO MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /36W DLH - 40S MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
LAT...LON 46689083 44209108 44209533 46689526
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 594 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Should be a PDS watch IMO...
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Headed towards the Twin Cities now. Could get ugly. Already reports of 80 mph winds...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...
VALID 140149Z - 140345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594
CONTINUES.
MATURE BOW ECHO IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
SHERBURNE/MILLE LACS/ISANTI/KANABEC/PINE COUNTIES MN AT OVER 40
KNOTS. THIS COMPLEX WILL POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MINNEAPOLIS METRO AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
TRACKING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD LSE LATER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE WARM
ADVECTION IS OVERCOMING CAPPING INVERSION. MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
GIVEN CURRENT MOTION...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AROUND 03Z.
..HART.. 08/14/2007
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
45189357 45629275 45559152 44589056 43809080 43459140
43489268 43949319 44739358
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...
VALID 140149Z - 140345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594
CONTINUES.
MATURE BOW ECHO IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
SHERBURNE/MILLE LACS/ISANTI/KANABEC/PINE COUNTIES MN AT OVER 40
KNOTS. THIS COMPLEX WILL POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MINNEAPOLIS METRO AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
TRACKING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD LSE LATER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE WARM
ADVECTION IS OVERCOMING CAPPING INVERSION. MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
GIVEN CURRENT MOTION...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AROUND 03Z.
..HART.. 08/14/2007
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
45189357 45629275 45559152 44589056 43809080 43459140
43489268 43949319 44739358
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:RL3AO wrote:Sirens went off at 4am last Saturday. Looks like another rough night.
The big question is will the bow echo go through the Twin Cities?
Looks like it will sweep through the East Metro. There is a new line forming up by St. Cloud which should take care of the rest of us.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:RL3AO wrote:Sirens went off at 4am last Saturday. Looks like another rough night.
The big question is will the bow echo go through the Twin Cities?
Looks like it will sweep through the East Metro. There is a new line forming up by St. Cloud which should take care of the rest of us.
That will have a hard time getting to the same intensity though...although the main bow echo should get past before it reaches peak intensity if it becomes a classic derecho (that would be La Crosse's problem...)
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