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mgpetre wrote:Anyone noticing that the ULL in the gulf is getting quite a bit more of a northward component in the last couple of Satellite frames? Looks like further up the TX coast is quite the possibility if this holds its trend. Any thoughts?
It's not going any further north than Houston with this ridge in place.dixiebreeze wrote:mgpetre wrote:Anyone noticing that the ULL in the gulf is getting quite a bit more of a northward component in the last couple of Satellite frames? Looks like further up the TX coast is quite the possibility if this holds its trend. Any thoughts?
Yes, I believe that is happening. Upper Texas coast, as well as Lousiana and Mississippi should pay attention.
wxman57 wrote:First of all, check the link on my hurricane links web page for the radar beam height calculator. Derek's position, for example, is 110nm NW of Cancun. (http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html). That puts the beam center at just under 15,000 ft above the surface. I think that the map below indicates the broad low may be a bit northwest of that point, but it's certainly no tight center so you can pick a number of spots out there as the "center". Lowest pressure in the area probably about 1006 mb, though there are no ships in the area of the lowest pressure:
Normandy wrote:That vortex near the Yucatan has little chance of becoming the dominant center....its being ripped apart by shear and is weakening.
Aric Dunn wrote:Normandy wrote:That vortex near the Yucatan has little chance of becoming the dominant center....its being ripped apart by shear and is weakening.
how can you tell its weakening... ?? and its just LITTLE bigger than what I think of a vortex is
Normandy wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Normandy wrote:That vortex near the Yucatan has little chance of becoming the dominant center....its being ripped apart by shear and is weakening.
how can you tell its weakening... ?? and its just LITTLE bigger than what I think of a vortex is
Well what im seeing is close to the northern coast of the Yucatan, while convection is firing North of the Yucatan channel. The area where that Low is doesn't have the best vorticity and doesn't have the best upper air dynamics. I'd look for the center to establish itself just N of the yucatan channel where convection is firing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor3.html
None of these maps suggest that a center is going to form that close to the coast, but further NNE.
Aric Dunn wrote:wxman57 wrote:First of all, check the link on my hurricane links web page for the radar beam height calculator. Derek's position, for example, is 110nm NW of Cancun. (http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html). That puts the beam center at just under 15,000 ft above the surface. I think that the map below indicates the broad low may be a bit northwest of that point, but it's certainly no tight center so you can pick a number of spots out there as the "center". Lowest pressure in the area probably about 1006 mb, though there are no ships in the area of the lowest pressure:
well i disagree. i personally watched the the 1km visible for a while and couple that with the radar loops i have made, it puts the center closer to the coast, you could clearly see a small tight center! and i know the difference between upper level sirus clouds verses low level .. so dont want to hear that ..
Is this upper low supposed to create a weakness in the ridge? If so, wouldn't that in turn try and pull this system more northward?
Portastorm wrote:Well, I may get blasted for this ... but I really am unimpressed with 91L tonight. There's still no signficant surface low from which convection is wrapping ... the upper low clearly still is influencing the outflow structure. All we have (which is what we had 2 days ago) is a lot of disorganized weather.
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