CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jlauderdal]

I've been reading for a few days that a well-known meteorologist has been saying that the storm will take a sudden, unexpected turn to the north into South Florida. Has anyone else seen this information?

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

Not saying this will verify but does the name Charley come to mind? Anyone that's predicting where this storm will be 10 days from now is just plain guessing.

i said rarely, give the nhc 72 hours which is plenty of time for preparation and IF those in the cone did some preparing prior to the season they will be ready. I believe punta gorda was in the cone at 72 hours or at least 48 hours. Now how often does a hurricane make landfall outside the 72 hour cone especially say the last 5 years.

[Wx_Warrior]

What's your best take on TD4 this far out btangy?

[Ola]

well... its position now is close to where the GFDL said it would be 6 hours from now... that GFDL is so far out to lunch

Was GFDL slower than it is actually?

Im guessing implications could mean that GFDL is too far north then, you know why I ask, < PR resident

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

Falling apart is far from where TD #4 stands right now. The system is holding its own and waiting for DMAX to arrive!!!

[windstorm99]

..

[wzrgirl1]

nice infrared....could be named tomorrow perhaps?

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

182
WHXX01 KWBC 140043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070814 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070814  0000   070814  1200   070815  0000   070815  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  34.2W   12.5N  36.8W   12.9N  39.6W   12.9N  42.9W
BAMD    12.0N  34.2W   12.2N  37.5W   12.4N  40.8W   12.5N  44.0W
BAMM    12.0N  34.2W   12.3N  37.5W   12.6N  40.9W   12.7N  44.6W
LBAR    12.0N  34.2W   12.1N  37.9W   12.5N  41.9W   12.8N  46.4W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070816  0000   070817  0000   070818  0000   070819  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  46.5W   13.7N  53.9W   14.8N  59.0W   18.1N  62.6W
BAMD    12.8N  47.3W   13.7N  53.0W   15.3N  57.5W   18.6N  62.0W
BAMM    12.7N  48.4W   12.3N  55.5W   12.5N  59.4W   15.9N  61.3W
LBAR    13.2N  51.0W   12.6N  58.9W   15.6N  57.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          75KTS          84KTS
DSHP        49KTS          63KTS          75KTS          84KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  34.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  30.7W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  27.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Brent]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

What? No. He said you can't see the circulation on IR. You shouldn't use IR to look for a circulation in a weak system, look at visible. There is clearly an LLC and it's organizing with convection over it. This will almost certainly be named by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. It is not falling apart at all.

[MusicCityMan]

I personally think #4 may already be a tropical storm. He looks very healthy based on the satellites. Esp. his blob of red on the IR.

the IR is my favorite satellite btw.. lol

[windstorm99]

[miamicanes177]

NHC has it at 34.2W...18Z GFDL was forecasting 34.4W in 12 hours.

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

Falling apart is far from where TD #4 stands right now. The system is holding its own and waiting for DMAX to arrive!!!

My bad, I thought it would fall apart once the NHC called it a TD or a TS.....

[Brent]

NHC has it at 34.2W...18Z GFDL was forecasting 34.4W in 12 hours.

...and moved it at 7 kt. This is moving at over 15 and almost straight west.

[wzrgirl1]

I think once it hits 55 and we can get a darn plane into it, things won't be as flippy-floppy

[JonathanBelles]

I personally think #4 may already be a tropical storm. He looks very healthy based on the satellites. Esp. his blob of red on the IR.

the IR is my favorite satellite btw.. lol

I dont think it is quite there yet. I wish I had a new quikscat. The center is under the newest convection, it is getting better organized, but I dont think it is quite there yet. The models dont support it. If something changes in the next hour or so, it could be possible.

[Lowpressure]

My bet would be to wait on visible to confirm LLC position before any upgrade. That is based on what sat pics we have at our disposal in the dark and the lack of obvious stacking.

[weatherguru18]

I can agree with the above statement. As a side note, can anybody (those in S. Florida) keep the board up to date on what Max Mayfield has to say? I'm very interested to gets his thoughts and opinions on this storm.

[CrazyC83]

What the models say now:

04L.NONAME

CMC - Cat 1 hurricane (pressure ~984), out to sea

GFDL - Cat 2 hurricane (pressure 977), NE of Leewards

GFS - Tropical storm (pressure ~997), towards Windwards

HWRF - Cat 2 hurricane (pressure 950), NE of Leewards

NOGAPS - Dissipates

UKMET - Tropical storm (pressure ~1005), towards Windwards

91L.INVEST

CMC - Cat 1 hurricane (pressure ~982), near Brownsville

GFDL - Cat 1 hurricane (pressure 987), near Brownsville

GFS - Tropical storm (pressure 1005), near Veracruz

HWRF - Tropical storm (pressure 997), near Brownsville

NOGAPS - Fails to develop

UKMET - Fails to develop

[windstorm99]

[jlauderdal]

I can agree with the above statement. As a side note, can anybody (those in S. Florida) keep the board up to date on what Max Mayfield has to say? I'm very interested to gets his thoughts and opinions on this storm.

here you go, max has a blog.

http://www.local10.com/mayfieldblog/index.html