CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, GFDL gets initial and boundary conditions from previous GFS runs, as do BAM's. So with GFS changing to a more Northern track, right or wrong, it shouldn't be surprising if the tropical models change right along with it.

[ExBailbonds]

QuikScat just managed to capture TD4. Looking at the image zoomed in, it does look like there are a couple of uncontaminated 40 kt barbs in there.

Compare that to the lastest sat shot http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg you can clearly see that the center of circulation is very exposed at this time

You can't clearly see anything about a surface circulation on an IR shot.

Ya your are correct but the quik sat shows the center and the two were 15 mins apart. The quik sat shows the ceter of circulation to be exposed on the eastern side when compared to the IR shot.

[Derek Ortt]

hoping to have the next forecast out by 9:45 because I want to get home... but will be doing Floosie first in all liklihood (hoping the Gulf is not classified until morning... I will not be very happy then)

[Weatherfreak000]

Model runs from the GFS ranging from a Mexico strike to a fish system now...


like I said, i'm not buying it, everyone needs to calm down because the storm isn't projected to go over their heads from the GFS and recognize we need to wait till Recon gets in "Dean" so we can get some better fixes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

hoping to have the next forecast out by 9:45 because I want to get home... but will be doing Floosie first in all liklihood (hoping the Gulf is not classified until morning... I will not be very happy then)

I wouldn't have guessed Flossie (Floozy?) would still be a Cat 3 this close to Hawaii.

I guess the potential GOM system affects the US first, but a long track CV storm would almost certainly be the event of the season if it reaches the US.

[Aquawind]

Model runs from the GFS ranging from a Mexico strike to a fish system now...


like I said, i'm not buying it, everyone needs to calm down because the storm isn't projected to go over their heads from the GFS and recognize we need to wait till Recon gets in "Dean" so we can get some better fixes.

Ahh yes.. Recon and then upper air analysis flights. The models need some hardcore data alrighty.. The GFS is a confused pup and this lack of factual data is not helping.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Model runs from the GFS ranging from a Mexico strike to a fish system now...


like I said, i'm not buying it, everyone needs to calm down because the storm isn't projected to go over their heads from the GFS and recognize we need to wait till Recon gets in "Dean" so we can get some better fixes.

Getting excited over a system five days from even menacing the islands, over each model run, is like getting heart-broken that your team gives up a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a pre-season game. It isn't completely meaningless, but it'll matter more a little further down the road.

[jaxfladude]

Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO it looks actually pretty good now and i think its normal at times for the center to get re-established.

[sevenleft]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

Falling apart? Could you elaborate?

[btangy]

The 12Z GFS ensemble mean also shows a trend toward a deeper trough off the East Coast which supports the 12Z operational run. However, there are some members still showing a flatter trough similar to previous runs of the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_156m.gif

Don't be surprised if the operational run flips back and forth on TD4's track. But, still people will fixate on each model run instead of looking at the overall synoptic pattern and uncertainty. I know because that's what I used to do too.

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

Falling apart? Could you elaborate?

STS Andrea TS Barry for starters(both were weakening at the time of them being named by the NHC)...some of the 9xL Invests lately....

[jlauderdal]

Good night All I will see what the Am brings. Don't have to much fun.

based on your 730 pm bedtime you either have to get up early to milk the cows or you want to be ready for 205 am tropical discussion.

[Beam]

:uarrow:
Falling apart now that the NHC has called it a TD???

Falling apart? Could you elaborate?

STS Andrea TS Barry for starters(both were weakening at the time of them being named by the NHC)...some of the 9xL Invests lately....

What of them? TD4 isn't falling apart.

[jlauderdal]

I've been reading for a few days that a well-known meteorologist has been saying that the storm will take a sudden, unexpected turn to the north into South Florida. Has anyone else seen this information?

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

[Beam]

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

what. How long have you been watching the tropics? (Not that I'm saying there's anything to the S Fla forecast, mind you.)

[Downdraft]

I've been reading for a few days that a well-known meteorologist has been saying that the storm will take a sudden, unexpected turn to the north into South Florida. Has anyone else seen this information?

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

Not saying this will verify but does the name Charley come to mind? Anyone that's predicting where this storm will be 10 days from now is just plain guessing.

[Derek Ortt]

well... its position now is close to where the GFDL said it would be 6 hours from now... that GFDL is so far out to lunch

[Weatherfreak14]

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

what. How long have you been watching the tropics? (Not that I'm saying there's anything to the S Fla forecast, mind you.)

Yea hurricane hugo took a very unexpected "dogleg" up to charleston sc.

[jlauderdal]

hurricanes rarely do anything suddenly or unexpected so i doubt this forecast will verify

what. How long have you been watching the tropics? (Not that I'm saying there's anything to the S Fla forecast, mind you.)

i just started, im hoping to learn a little this season. i will stay tuned.