CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

We should see a TS at 11 then

[pwv001]

I'll be sick to my stomach if this is a fish

You are sick.

No, you are sick.

[storms in NC]

If we have a TC in the Gulf how long will it stay? And what will it do to TD4? Is that the reason they have moved all to the right? or is it the ridge? Or will the TC in the Gulf weaken the ridge for TD4 to go North?

Deb

The GOM system will be inland around 72 hours so and it is moving away(w-wnw) so it will have no effect on 91L. The reason the models moved north is more associated with the east ATL ridging than anything in the GOM.

Thank you for your time. Now I know I little bit more in my old age

[cycloneye]

Whole 18z GFS Loop

It misses the U.S.

[storms in NC]

They are just kids

[hial2]

One run and it's "run for your lives"...next run "nah,it's a fish storm"...Since when are models that accurate 5-6+ days out?...
Gut it out for the next few days, learn and enjoy the beauty that hurricanes are,and wait see what develops..Hopefully there will be no damage anywhere, and who knows? This might be a storm for the ages when it comes to intensity..

[ExBailbonds]

QuikScat just managed to capture TD4. Looking at the image zoomed in, it does look like there are a couple of uncontaminated 40 kt barbs in there.

Compare that to the lastest sat shot http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg you can clearly see that the center of circulation is very exposed at this time

[WxGuy1]

This doesn't look terribly unreasonable to me. The last couple of model runs have shown a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic, with upper-level troughing off the US east coast slowly weakening into a cut-off low by the end of this weak. This ULL is forecast to move off to the northeast as a strong upper-level trough digs into the northeastern US. Meanwhile, there will continue to be a break between the Atlantic mid-level ridge and the strong ridge / cut-off high over the southern Mississippi River valley. This weakness looks like it'll serve as a good escape for TD4, likely-to-be-Dean, to recurve and move back out to sea. the GFS is also showing 30-40kts northeasterly 250mb flow early next week off the southastern US coast on the northeast side of the upper-level high/ridge as the relatively large upper-level ridge shifts slowly southward to a position that stretches from the eastern Gulf of Mexico westward into the eastern Pacific. The 12z/13 ECMWF is a little more extensive with this ridge (showing less of a disconnect between the Atlantic ridge / Bermuda high and the ridge across the Gulf, Mexico, and southern US, which would suggest a lesser possibility of seeing a poleward turn.

Regardless, this is all pretty much guesswork. We don't even know the strength and size of TD4 in 72+ hrs, and we know how strong hurricanes can affect their surrounding environment. Anyone telling you that any particular state is "going to get it" is full of it -- there's just no way to know. We're still at least a week from TD4 being anywhere near the US, so I would STRONGLY caution against putting much faith in ANY numerical models at this time.For all we know, this could turn southwestward into Venezuela in 8 days. Or, it may turn out to sea and be a threat to Bermuda. We just don't know.

[flwxwatcher]

I do think it will be a few days at least before we get any real model consensus on any potential U.S. landfall . The storm is still its formative stage and still 8 + days away from the U.S. We have seen the swing in model tracks in just the last day. I expect to see more:):) Though , like one poster pointed out the EURO does more or less teleconnect to what is happening in the WPAC. We shall see, to early to get worked up about any one model run:):)

[sevenleft]

QuikScat just managed to capture TD4. Looking at the image zoomed in, it does look like there are a couple of uncontaminated 40 kt barbs in there.

Compare that to the lastest sat shot http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg you can clearly see that the center of circulation is very exposed at this time

You can't clearly see anything about a surface circulation on an IR shot.

[jaxfladude]

This system in my worthless 2 cents only; has the look of a bad one once it gets it's act together


EDIT: I smell a FISH!!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, based on the lastest model that came in and the latest comentary from the Meteorologist on this board, this does look like this very well could be a fish afterall. I bet the other models will follow suit and move north as well....Looks like a weakness in the ridge is being seen....

[Brent]

Also, everyone needs to remember we had about 6-7 runs IN A ROW that showed a Caribbean and then South Texas or Mexico storm and then out of the blue today everything is radically different. Nothing is set in stone and it could easily go anywhere.

[weatherguru18]

Everybody is putting their eggs in one basket here. If it went from a Caribbean storm to a fish in a couple runs, what makes you think it can turn back into a GOM system? Your banking on something a week or more away.

[Blown Away]

Less than 24 hours ago, there was now way TD4 could break through the ridge, at least to the islands. Now it may miss everybody. Nobody needs a Cat 2 storm, but talk about not really having any idea.

[HURAKAN]

I think people are coming to conclusions very early in the battle. The war is still on and we have just begun. We have a system that is organizing and computer models usually don't do very well with these relatively unorganized systems. We know the system should move west for the next few days and after that, then climatology says it should move west-northwestward. Remember that the storm is located at 12N, pretty far south to start calling this a fish and it's moving fast to the west.

[artist]

could this be a sign of garbage in - garbage out possibly too? I remember in the past that having happened. Just seems like such an extreme difference.

[SaveNola]

Everybody is putting their eggs in one basket here. If it went from a Caribbean storm to a fish in a couple runs, what makes you think it can turn back into a GOM system? Your banking on something a week or more away.

So goes the latest model run, so goes the forum.

[sunnyday]

I've been reading for a few days that a well-known meteorologist has been saying that the storm will take a sudden, unexpected turn to the north into South Florida. Has anyone else seen this information?

[HURAKAN]

I've been reading for a few days that a well-known meteorologist has been saying that the storm will take a sudden, unexpected turn to the north into South Florida. Has anyone else seen this information?

WOW, if he is right, then he should start thinking on the Lottery numbers.