CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

hi again sorry i didn't understand before. yes I think the storm will hit puerto rico as a cat 4 and hit florida or nc or ny (not sure) later.

Welcome to storm2k...but please elaborate as to why
you think this could happen. Perhaps oceanic
heat content or other factors...for example.

[weatherguru18]

Please keep in mind that the last half of the "official forecast track" is HIGHLY variable. Here is a link as to the forecast errors on avg.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... erages.pdf

[storms in NC]

hi again sorry i didn't understand before. yes I think the storm will hit puerto rico as a cat 4 and hit florida or nc or ny (not sure) later.

Welcome to storm2k...but please elaborate as to why
you think this could happen. Perhaps oceanic
heat content or other factors...for example.

Yes please with links too

[canegrl04]

So, if I take the NHC map and make a line from 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday and keep that line going, what's to keep this storm from totally blowing up into a cat 3 or 4? Obviously, there are no land masses to prohibit the storm from getting stronger. What does everyone think about the set-up a week down the road? Will it start to head West after 2pm Saturday? Due North?

Nothing... with a good upper level environment and outflow channels, there is nothing to stop it from becoming a Cat 5

I am afraid Dean to be will be 2007's equivelent of Katrina or past monster storms

[Bluefrog]

you had better hope not ..... as a Katrina victim/survivor you had better hope not ...

[RL3AO]

Maybe over reacting a tad? Cat 5s? Katrina's? Its still a depression.

[wzrgirl1]

conditions look good I am afraid to say

[mf_dolphin]

Let's not go making this a monster yet and trying to pick a landfall point now is like throwing darts blindfolded. The important thing is to stay informed and check your preparations.

[Scott_inVA]

The model maps I do have a feature that allows you to see each model's "track record"...as well as TPC/NHC's "Forecast Advisory" output.

Here's what they have done thus far:


Not a huge shift, but clearly with more of a NW component. This track will NOT result in a typical "western runner" that zips into the Caribbean and Central America.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[weatherguru18]

Conditions can be good...but they have to be darn near perfect for a Cat. 5 to form. Remember that this has the *potential* to move right over the islands, D.R., Haiti, Cuba and Florida. It probably won't have the opportunity for this to happen...but then again NEVER say never.

[msbee]

bvigal and EyELeSs1
hi neighbors.
yes, we all will have some waiting and watching to do in the next few days.
i agree with you bvigal.. we can make ourselves crazy with too much informations. When you look at those models , it gets downright freaky when you see your island right smack dab in the middle of the cone.
what is it? this is more information than I need to know
so guys, let's hope for the best, as you both say, and wait for a few days until we know more.
Good luck to all the islanders.

You know what,I think its better to not look too much to the models and focus on what in reallity the system is doing.That is model 1 for me.

absolutely right, Luis!

Barbara

[panhandlehurricane79]

Hi and thanks. i do not know what oceanic heat content is. but my friend john said he got the models off of sfwmd.gov.

[Bluefrog]

Let me remind everyone that Katrina came in as a Cat 3 (which I think is total BS) and look what happened. (I personally think it was a Cat 4 at landfall). it doesn't have to be a Cat 5 to be totally catastrophic.

[storms in NC]

Conditions can be good...but they have to be darn near perfect for a Cat. 5 to form. Remember that this has the *potential* to move right over the islands, D.R., Haiti, Cuba and Florida. It probably won't have the opportunity for this to happen...but then again NEVER say never.

This is very true never say never. It will come and bite you in the behind

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS starting soon.

[storms in NC]

Hi and thanks. i do not know what oceanic heat content is. but my friend john said he got the models off of sfwmd.gov.

You going on hear say? That not Good

[panhandlehurricane79]

no he showed me the models on his computer.

[storms in NC]

18Z GFS starting soon.

They said in the last update at 5 that they don't have a handle on this yet. They think it will go back to the west again.

can any one say ERNESTO. as far as models goes?

[x-y-no]

Hi and thanks. i do not know what oceanic heat content is. but my friend john said he got the models off of sfwmd.gov.

Stick around and read ... there's quite a few professional meteorologists as well as very strong amateurs who post analysis and opinions on this site. There's an amazing amount to be learned if you have the interest to do so.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is a common misconception that there are only one set for each model: the GFS, Euro, UKMET, etc. There are acyually several various versions (per each model) which are run, so I thought this link may shed some light on the various GFS ensembles and their depiction of the progged UA (upper air) pattern:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

Currently, there is a shortwave trough over southern Canada and the upper Plains. The degree to which it amplifies (in response to upstream heights over western Canada and the Pacific Northwest trough) is questionable. Even if it strengthens to the effect shown on some of the ensembles, there is quite a bit of disagreement over the timing, intensity, and whether the overall synoptic pattern will allow the event to take place; certainly the GFS' cool bias (particularly around days three through six) could be a responsible player. The operational GFS seems to have one of the strongest biases, while the other GFS ensembles (and the Euro ensembles/other models) show a more or less weaker North American system.

On the other hand, the operational GFS could have a better grasp on the fluctuations of the Plains ridge, in addition to the thermal environment. A lot (emphasis added) will depend on the forward motion of TD 4; the longwave pattern over North America (small changes can make or break it); the size/intensity of TD 4; and the possible Gulf system via 91L. It should be noted that there has been a persistent trough over the Canadian Maritimes, so I can see the justification for a more northward track. On the other hand, there are considerable uncertainties with respect to the extent of the low to mid-level ridge(s) over the Atlantic basin and southern United States. Many small fluctuations can make a huge difference. We will get a better handle over the next few days. In the meantime, the islands should closely monitor TD 4.

One additional note: it is entirely plausible that the first trough may not completely touch TD 4, and the big question concerns the ridging/North American pattern response after the progged trough (see the differences between the operational GFS and ensemble Euro on the upcoming pattern). The strength and amplitude of the trough will make some big differences, too. We'll see the factors over the next several days.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Keep a close eye on the whole picture.