CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 33.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 33.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 32.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.8N 35.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.8N 38.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.8N 41.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Aquawind]

229
WTNT34 KNHC 132043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Aquawind]

449
FONT14 KNHC 132042
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT

12 118N 355W 34 16 9(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
12 118N 355W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 118N 355W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)

24 118N 385W 34 X 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
24 118N 385W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
24 118N 385W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

36 118N 416W 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 9(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
36 118N 416W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
36 118N 416W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

48 121N 447W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 10(35) 1(36) X(36)
48 121N 447W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
48 121N 447W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)


72 130N 505W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) 2(34)
72 130N 505W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
72 130N 505W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)


96 150N 560W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 9(31)
96 150N 560W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)
96 150N 560W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)


120 170N 610W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20)
120 170N 610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
120 170N 610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 60 75 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Scott_inVA]

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

And you could say the same for the constant runs into Old Mexico,Brownsville. Where is the trend? There is none. You have been here long enough to know better than focusing too much on any of these long range models. It will be typical flip-flopping until the NOAA flights begin.[/quote]

Very correct and if anything, the latest GFS (and all the others that follow suit) should be effectively discarded. It's a trash run. Plain and simple.

Climatology or not, does anyone here think it's going to plow into that ridge and go up the EC? (Hint: remember folks there is more than one set of isobars on the map.)

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Didn't think so. [/quote]

I'm not on board with a recurve solution but it there IS a way it could verify.

If folks just look at model lines it is problematic to discern why they are changing. The GFS and by extension the GFDL on this run are opining the TC comes around the Ridge and the digging trof is too weak/too far north to catch it. I am most doubtful this occurs! If anything, the heat ridge probably will again expand inland over the Mid-Atlantic/SEUS (ala the EC's depiction). With the TC tracking with ANY northwest component...I could make the case it would then bang over The Blade and Cuba...possibly SFL.

Again, that is not my forecast but looking at the GFS H5 maps one can see why is has made this massive jump. If if gets a grip on the likely strength of the Ridge, it'll scoot the TC back up toward the GOM.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[Brent]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If JB thinks Florida, he must believe that it will be affected by the returning ridge to make it hit Florida... which would ten result in a secondary hit on points further west in the gulf. This may be a b*tch for many... first the islands, then florida, then northern GOM coast or upper TX?

[clfenwi]

Looking closely at the last two or three hours of the visible loop, it appears that a competing LLC developed, north of 12N near 34W. On the image I'm looking at, I place what hitherto has been the sole LLC southeast of 12N 33W.

[windstorm99]

[Scott_inVA]

I'm not on board with a recurve solution but it there IS a way it could verify.

If folks just look at model lines it is problematic to discern why they are changing. The GFS and by extension the GFDL on this run are opining the TC comes around the Ridge and the digging trof is too weak/too far north to catch it. I am most doubtful this occurs! If anything, the heat ridge probably will again expand inland over the Mid-Atlantic/SEUS (ala the EC's depiction). With the TC tracking with ANY northwest component...I could make the case it would then bang over The Blade and Cuba...possibly SFL.

Again, that is not my forecast but looking at the GFS H5 maps one can see why is has made this massive jump. If if gets a grip on the likely strength of the Ridge, it'll scoot the TC back up toward the GOM.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[panhandlehurricane79]

here is what i think about td 4 (the new system in the atlantic)

i think it will had west toward the islands and hit puerto rico as a cat 4. then it will go toward the bahamas and florida as a cat 4. not sure yet though if it will hit fl or go up towards nc or ny. we'll see.

thouts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The position does seem to have shifted slightly WSW from the 11am one. I guess this confirms that it is moving south of due west.

[Aquawind]

here is what i think about td 4 (the new system in the atlantic)

i think it will had west toward the islands and hit puerto rico as a cat 4. then it will go toward the bahamas and florida as a cat 4. not sure yet though if it will hit fl or go up towards nc or ny. we'll see.

thouts?

Welcome Why do you think it will do this?

[EyELeSs1]

am that cat 2 dot is blocking out antigua!!! oh well it will move so we should be safe for now

[clevelandindians]

i just went in paint if you draw a extended path it would end up by key west

[Scorpion]

i just went in paint if you draw a extended path it would end up by key west

Yes, it is always a great idea to extrapolate from the end of a 5 day forecast

[gatorcane]

South Florida bound it may be....gosh that map is scary....

we need a trough big time to spare the EC...

the islands are indeed under the gun..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

those posted maps are from the 11AM advisory

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 4_5day.gif

[gatorcane]

nope they shift right slightly towards the end....

[panhandlehurricane79]

hi guys.

hi aquawind and thanks. my friend john showed me these models so i'm sorta going with this but usually he said the intensity is wrong and low.