CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

interpolated GFS is at 17.7N and 60.2W in 5 days

[canegrl04]

If this does become a monster 'cane,I can't wait to be in awe of it's mighty power on the sat images.But at the same time,I want it to go fish

[punkyg]

Personally, I think we may observe more organization within the next 24 hours. I would not be surprised if we observe the formation of a tropical storm over the next two to three days. Latest visible images indicate a persistent convective burst has been occurring very near (or over) the LLC. Additionally, low-level inflow has been becoming much better defined in all quadrants, including the eastern sides (where dry air and easterly shear initially inhibited convection). This indicates a slower forward motion as the fast easterly flow relaxes across the area. I think it represents an increasingly favorable environment ahead of TD 4.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Its presentation has been drastically improving over the past few hours.

You can clearly detect the changing structure of TD 4. Note the larger expanse of the circulation. This trend can precede the formation of a conducive upper-air and low-level environment, which would allow sfc convergence and convection over the LLC. This is the first key step toward a mature tropical cyclone, and it is a classic representative of the "favorable" deep tropics regime during the peak CV months (August and September). I think we could see Dean very soon - additionally, the larger structure could affect the rate of development, especially if conditions improve (very likely) over the next 24 hours.

I think the larger size could play a role in TD 4's eventual path, too. The reduction in its forward speed could allow the trough to move out of the area. On the other hand, the larger size could initiate a larger weakness in the mid-level ridge. It largely depends on the influence of shortwaves and the strength/expanse of the Plains ridge over the next several days.

What do you think?

This is a excellent post.
now i know this thing could become a huge storm.
i wonder how far north this baby will get, because like you said it could effect the ridge.

[gatorcane]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

[storms in NC]

No it doesn't. It don't bother me one way or another. If it comes it comes deal with it after wards.
A lot of you don't know that I have a daughter and a brother in SW Fla and very good friends in La. So I will watch.

[Steve]

>>I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....wouldn't some of you agree?

Oh I agree, FAR too many. Because as everyone knows, almost every storm that hits South Florida ain't done. And there's a certain South Florida-Louisiana connection (see Betsy 1965, Andrew 1992, Katrina 2005 ). And there have been others of course.

So yes, WAY too many.

Steve

[Stratosphere747]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

And you could say the same for the constant runs into Old Mexico,Brownsville. Where is the trend? There is none. You have been here long enough to know better than focusing too much on any of these long range models. It will be typical flip-flopping until the NOAA flights begin.

[storms in NC]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

No I can't right now toooooo many if's just yet.

Just want to blow it to the right of ALLLLL the Island so they can be spared. I would hate to have no where to go. At less We have North to go here in the states.

[clevelandindians]

if it dosent turn both before it reaches the islands it is a GOM storm

[windstorm99]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

And you could say the same for the constant runs into Old Mexico,Brownsville. Where is the trend? There is none. You have been here long enough to know better than focusing too much on any of these long range models. It will be typical flip-flopping until the NOAA flights begin.

Actually i agree the generel trend is something might try to approach the eastcoast of florida in the coming days.

[JPmia]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

And you could say the same for the constant runs into Old Mexico,Brownsville. Where is the trend? There is none. You have been here long enough to know better than focusing too much on any of these long range models. It will be typical flip-flopping until the NOAA flights begin.

Couldn't agree more! and I live in South FL. Been on this board long enough to know this. Though, PR and the Greater Antilles can begin to get nervous, permission granted! At least I would if I lived there. Derek just posted estimated position in 5 days and that would put them right in the middle of it or damn close. I always wait until any storm gets to about PR or little further west then begin to look at the models and see where we go from there. This is fun isn't it!

[brunota2003]

I think there is more discussion about TD 4 (and possible landfall points over 7 days out T.T) going on in the models thread currently than the actual discussion thread! lmao

[jasons2k]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

I'm telling you there are too many runs here and there that want to bring it through South Florida....

wouldn't some of you agree?

And you could say the same for the constant runs into Old Mexico,Brownsville. Where is the trend? There is none. You have been here long enough to know better than focusing too much on any of these long range models. It will be typical flip-flopping until the NOAA flights begin.

Very correct and if anything, the latest GFS (and all the others that follow suit) should be effectively discarded. It's a trash run. Plain and simple.

Climatology or not, does anyone here think it's going to plow into that ridge and go up the EC? (Hint: remember folks there is more than one set of isobars on the map.)

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Didn't think so.

[MusicCityMan]

So where do the models take this thing? I haven't seen the model runs yet?.. It's way too early obviously.. but what do they do with this..

[punkyg]

if it dosent turn both before it reaches the islands it is a GOM storm

So you want it to move north, then it will be a problem for the east coast, then what if it went north and move through the florida keys
and makes its way into the gulf.

[MusicCityMan]

I've got a feeling the ridge is going to push the storm towards the EC.. but the question of course is where..

[RL3AO]

With the convection forming near the LLC will we get the upgrade at 5 or will they wait too see what it does with D-max?

[Brent]

With the convection forming near the LLC will we get the upgrade at 5 or will they wait too see what it does with D-max?

I'm not expecting Dean at 5... small chance but I seriously doubt it.

[Nimbus]

Every puff of convection seems to be coming in a little further south. That trend is not good if you are hoping for a fish. If you initialize the models at 11.5N instead of 12N you might get quite a difference in track by the end of the run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Im not surprised at anything. Brownsville, GOM, EC...If he/she gets strong enough, it will break thru a weaker ridge...It will be the weekend before anything can be slightly pin pointed and today is Monday...whew.