INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Cyclone1]

Why is this thread in Active Storms?

[Stratosphere747]

>>Yeah Steve. The models were quite divergent with respect to the rainfall. If this was coming up from the BOC I would say that the Upper Coast would be more susceptible to a decent soaking. Not sure about a due west track which seems to be the probability.

That special statement has it going a little WNW (didn't say at what heading), but if it follows the retrograding ULL a little to the south, it's still hard to say. Run the Goes East WV at 30 frames (link below) and speed it up a little:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Looks to me that the ULL does have a northerly component to its westward movement though it's sometimes hard to tell with upper level lows that are a little oblong as this one is.

What do you think strat?

Steve

It did appear earlier as if the ULL was tugging along whatever low was trying to form above the Yucatan. I'm having trouble finding anything right now. No question that the ULL is now moving WNW, and looks to be filling in somewhat. Overall the system looked much better this morning, but I'm sure we will see another burst of convection as we move into the afternoon.

[Regit]

Why is this thread in Active Storms?

The staff has decided to move Invest threads to the active storms forum so that members won't have to jump around the forums all the time to keep up with everything.

[Cyclone1]

The staff has decided to move Invest threads to the active storms forum so that members won't have to jump around the forums all the time to keep up with everything.

Cool, good idea!

[Cyclone1]

Hey, wait a minute! If we move INVESTS to the active storms thread, whats the point of even having an Active Storms thread?

[storms in NC]

Hey, wait a minute! If we move INVESTS to the active storms thread, whats the point of even having an Active Storms thread?

Good Point

[Regit]

Hey, wait a minute! If we move INVESTS to the active storms thread, whats the point of even having an Active Storms thread?

Every time you load this forum it will load 10-20 threads. Every time you pull up the main forum it will load 35,000 plus threads. The lightened load on the server will help us to stay up during busy times.

The main forum will still be for general tropical discussion, blob watches, and all that stuff.

[tailgater]

Looks to me like there's a eddy(north of Cacun) rotating around the center Just WNW of the tip of Cuba @ 22.0N 86.0W.
Thoughts?

[piggy]

look at formation alert! Why does it point NW?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[RL3AO]

look at formation alert! Why does it point NW?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

Because its moving NW?

[Stormcenter]

look at formation alert! Why does it point NW?



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

Because its moving NW?

It looks that way right now.

[Steve]

That would be the boxed in area where they would expect something to develop. It's "grided" for lack of a better term.

Steve

[srainhoutx]

Good view from several SAT Loops of system in GOM/Yucatan Channel. Note energy sagging S in SE CONUS and ULL tracking WNW across GOM. A little "hint" is moisture moving from SE to NW near Dallas/Ft Worth this afternoon. Upper air flow is changing a bit and will need to be watch for possible trending.

NW Atlantic WV SAT Loop...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

NE Pacific WV SAT Loop...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php
Good view of Flossie Noted

Floater 2 WV SAT Loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

GOM WV SAT Loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Caribbean WV SAT Loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Will note TUTT digging under GOM system

Possible reasoning for TCFA being in NW direction.

[Portastorm]

So is the vorticity center (that might end up being the center of any circulation) near 22.5n, 87.5w at the moment?

Looking at the visible, I can see a distinct cyclonic circulation on the northern coast of the Yucatan.

Geez ... I'm looking at this stuff too long.

[jasons2k]

Hey, wait a minute! If we move INVESTS to the active storms thread, whats the point of even having an Active Storms thread?

Every time you load this forum it will load 10-20 threads. Every time you pull up the main forum it will load 35,000 plus threads. The lightened load on the server will help us to stay up during busy times.

The main forum will still be for general tropical discussion, blob watches, and all that stuff.

Don't you have to pull-up the main forum first and then navigate to the active forum? This means everyone is pulling up 35,000 plus threads for nothing but to get over here...so, we might want to revisit how the forums are linked or we're not going to see any performance increase.

[x-y-no]

Hey, wait a minute! If we move INVESTS to the active storms thread, whats the point of even having an Active Storms thread?

Every time you load this forum it will load 10-20 threads. Every time you pull up the main forum it will load 35,000 plus threads. The lightened load on the server will help us to stay up during busy times.

The main forum will still be for general tropical discussion, blob watches, and all that stuff.

Don't you have to pull-up the main forum first and then navigate to the active forum? This means everyone is pulling up 35,000 plus threads for nothing but to get over here...so, we might want to revisit how the forums are linked or we're not going to see any performance increase.

Not really, because people hang out in the forum, refreshing to see if there's anything new (hopefully not too often - go easy on the refresh button guys.) So yes, they'd pass through TT once on the way here, but that's a minor part of the load.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like something will form here... but shouldn't have that much time to form. Probably like a Charley from 1998

[Brent]

We have a race for which one becomes Dean?

[cycloneye]

We have a race for which one becomes Dean?

I think TD4 has the advantage as it is a TD already and 91L has to consolidate more to become a TD and has land to deal with.

[CrazyC83]

We have a race for which one becomes Dean?

I think TD4 has the advantage as it is a TD already and 91L has to consolidate more to become a TD and has land to deal with.

91L does have climatology on its side though - that area is prone to seeing rapid deepening...