CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

approaching South Florida as a SIGNIFICANT system

Holy crap!

LOL

[Scorpion]

The 12Z Euro isnt out yet

[canegrl04]

Not to be an alarmist or anything,but on TWC's last update,they said this might be hurricane Dean by the time it reaches the Islands

[windstorm99]

Iam still getting the 00z run?

[cycloneye]

Well,is this the 12z run of EURO or not.Please lets clarify this.

[tgenius]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081300!!/

500 next Thur.

What size storm does that have hitting South FL? a TS or is it a Cat1/2?

[hsvwx]

All of these Euro images being provided are from 00z, and the one I noted earlier is from last Friday. The Euro website still has not updated to 12z yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's the actual 12z Euro for next Thursday...



..It shows a relatively weak system in the SE GOM.

[tgenius]

Here's the actual 12z Euro for next Thursday...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081312!!/

..It shows a relatively weak system in the SE GOM.

Looks like it clips South FL doesn't it?

[Regit]

Not to be an alarmist or anything,but on TWC's last update,they said this might be hurricane Dean by the time it reaches the Islands

That's because that's what the NHC is forecasting.

[canegrl04]

Is NOGAPS still sleeping with this?

Someone needs to poke it with a stick to wake it up

[Scorpion]

Euro should be discounted as it initializes it at 1011 mb

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's the actual 12z Euro for next Thursday...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081312!!/

..It shows a relatively weak system in the SE GOM.

Looks like it clips South FL doesn't it?

It brings it through the FL straights on Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Extremeweatherguy,to clarify,what you are posting is the 12z run?

[Canelaw99]

I cant wait for channel 7 here in Miami to start there cheesy intros, and over dramatic news reporting it makes me laugh... "Tracking TD 4" than they will show that it will be near us to get the media hype going.

LOL - you aren't kiddin! I was kind of surprised they weren't already starting with it this morning as a potential threat...would give them at least a week of hype

[windstorm99]

All of these Euro images being provided are from 00z, and the one I noted earlier is from last Friday. The Euro website still has not updated to 12z yet.

Question...So why do we have 12z posted on the thread?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This is 12Z

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081312!!/

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,to clarify,what you are posting is the 12z run?

Yes, I am pretty sure. The initialization time says 13 August 2007 12UTC.

[brunota2003]

Last night's GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning's run had it hitting New England--a difference of about 2000 mies in landfall location

And that's why we shouldn't even be taking any of these long range forecasts seriously until at least it gets to the islands. For all we know it could be back at Mexico tomorrow morning.

And that is why we have the 2,000 Mile Cone Club!!! Sorry, felt it was nessecary.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96420

[Steve]

>>..It shows a relatively weak system in the SE GOM.

Often it never shows anything but a ripple, so it's still significant from that far out (would be 10 days or so). It also jibes with Bastardi's initial FL Straits idea. That's just way too narrow for me from this far out, and I don't get paid to make those kinds of calls (thus I don't).



Steve